Israel Matzav

Would Iran provide nuclear weapons to terrorists?

Steve Emerson and Joel Himelfarb point out that most of the focus on Iran has been on the possibility of Iran using nuclear missiles to attack Israel. They discuss what can only be characterized as a nightmare scenario, which may be far more difficult to control: Would Iran provide nuclear weapons to terrorists? They look at the possibility of such weapons being transferred to al-Qaeda for an attack on the United States:

Terrorism analysts in Washington need to be asking: Under what circumstances might Iran decide to up the ante and transfer WMD technology to terrorist organizations?

Diplomats typically dismiss the possibility. They acknowledge that this would be a terrible thing, but express doubt that Iran would take such a drastic step for two reasons.

First, they argue that Tehran itself is uncomfortable at the prospect of terrorists acquiring such weapons. Second, they argue that the Iranian leadership understands that if a nuclear weapon is transferred to al-Qaeda and used to attack the United States or any of its allies, the retaliation would be overwhelming.

To be sure, analysts should not underestimate the importance of American power as a deterrent. But it is equally important to understand that, with Iran, deterrence has its limits. No nation today has as extensive a record of supporting terrorism as Iran, and Western policies in place until now have utterly failed to deter Iran from facilitating terrorism using conventional weapons.

U.S. deterrence has been eroded by Iran's perception of American weakness, and by the fact that the Iranian regime has been able to foment terrorism and violence against the United States and the West for more than 30 years and get away with it. Deterrence is further weakened by the instability of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, who seems not to fear conflict with the West.

And they talk about the possibility that Iran could hand off a nuclear weapon to Hezbullah to attack Israel.

There are untold numbers of Iranian shipments that get through. The question that analysts must now answer is: could a nuclear weapon get through, too?

The late Paul Leventhal, president of the Nuclear Control Institute, took this possibility seriously. Under the right circumstances, Tehran might attempt to transfer WMD to Hezbollah, or perhaps other terror groups, such as Hamas or the Palestinian Islamic Jihad. In interviews with The Washington Times and The New York Times not long before his death in 2007, Leventhal said it was not beyond the realm of possibility that Hezbollah could try to smuggle a crude nuclear device via a ship or truck and deliver it to a highly populated Israeli city. According to Leventhal, if the fissile device functioned poorly, it would result in an explosion with the power of 1,000 tons of TNT, resulting in radiation contamination and a "catastrophic" number of casualties. If such a device functioned properly, it could result in an explosion with the power of 15,000 to 20,000 tons of TNT—roughly equivalent to the bomb dropped on Hiroshima in August 1945.

From my discussions with the chief IDF intelligence officer for the northern Golan this week, I can tell you that the IDF is definitely preparing for the scenario of someone smuggling a nuclear weapon over the border fence between Syria and Israel. On the Lebanese border, the same scenario must be considered along with the possibility of Hezbullah attaching a nuclear warhead to any of the rockets they received from Iran.

Would Iran provide nuclear weapons to terrorist organizations to attack the United States or Israel? You bet they would. That's why they have to be stopped before they go nuclear. Unfortunately, President Obumbler doesn't get it and continues to display weakness in his dealings with Iran. What could go wrong?

Read the whole thing.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:11 AM