Israel Matzav

Will the Jews vote Obama in 2012?

Jason Maoz argues that American Jews are likely to vote overwhelmingly for Barack Hussein Obama in 2012, just as they did in 2008.

Come November, however, Reagan actually ended up losing significant ground among Jewish voters. “Exit polls taken the day of the election,” wrote Charles Silberman in his 1985 book A Certain People, “indicated that no more than 35 percent of American Jews, and perhaps as few as 31 percent, had voted for Reagan; the Jewish vote for Mondale was put at 65-69 percent … analysis of the polls indicated that between 25 and 35 percent of the Jews who had voted for Reagan in 1980 switched to Mondale in 1984.”

It seems that Reagan’s increasingly vocal embrace of the New — specifically, the Christian — Right scared Jews more than anything said by either Jackson or Farrakhan. Nearly 80 percent of Jews had an unfavorable opinion of the Rev. Jerry Falwell, the most visible face of the Christian Right (never mind that Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin had presented Falwell with the Jabotinsky Prize in recognition of his strong support of the Jewish state). In fact, Silberman noted, “more Jewish voters indicated an unfavorable opinion of Falwell than of Jesse Jackson.”

The historian Stephen Whitfield elaborated on that point in 1986, writing: “The rise of the New Right has been more disturbing to Jews than the circulation within the Democratic Party of Third World sympathies that collide with Israeli interests.”

How does all this relate to Obama and Jewish support? For one thing, the Republican party’s identification with the Christian Right is immeasurably stronger today than it was 25 years ago, making it unlikely that liberal or moderate Jews will find a comfort level with the GOP anytime soon. For another, the current generation of American Jews is not nearly as supportive of Israel and Israeli policies as were their parents and grandparents — and support for Israel was the one factor that in the past might have swayed some liberal Jews to vote for a Republican.

Unfortunately, Maoz is probably correct. The only ways this could change would be if (God forbid) Iran attacks Israel (in which case Obama will have bigger problems than the Jewish vote), or if the Republicans chose someone who is Republican in name only centrist (which is unlikely given John McCain's loss in 2008).

While it's very unlikely that most 'American Israelis' will vote for Obama, the large majority of American Jewry that imbibes the Democratic party with its mothers' milk is unlikely to vote for anyone else.

What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:24 PM