Israel Matzav

Obama's weakness and Lebanon's new government

In an earlier post, I discussed how the Saudis are going to sacrifice Lebanon for the sake of 'Arab unity.' Time Magazine explains that the blame for the Saudi action can be laid at the doorstep of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, Washington, DC: The White House.

Saad Hariri, son of the murdered former Prime Minister and leader of the ruling coalition, initially balked at Hizballah's terms, but eventually had no choice but to give in. Lebanon's longstanding deadly rivalries and the ever present threat of violence have made Lebanese politicians wary of acting unilaterally, which is why Hariri invited Hizballah and its allies into the Cabinet in the first place. And Hariri is increasingly isolated, with none of his allies being prepared to confront Hizballah head-on given the experience of the May 2008 mini–civil war.

While the Bush Administration regarded the withdrawal of Syria from Lebanon in 2005 — as a result of international pressure and Lebanese street protests — as one of its biggest successes in the Middle East, the new Obama Administration has been less aggressive in its backing for the pro-U.S. Lebanese government. Lebanese media also suggest that Saudi Arabia was dismayed that Hariri's Future movement, which had been building a militia with Saudi money, was so easily routed by Hizballah in the May 2008 street fights. Last month, Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah traveled to Damascus for a state visit with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, in part to bury the hatchet over Lebanon. Even Hariri's coalition is breaking apart. Walid Jumblatt, the leader of Lebanon's Druze community and one of the architects of the anti-Syrian movement (he once told a Washington audience that America should send car bombs to Damascus), has seen which way the wind is blowing and transformed himself into an ardent Syria-phile.

But the government's caving in to Hizballah and Syria will have its consequences: most importantly it's a message to those in Lebanon — and the wider Middle East — who put their trust in the U.S. and political reform that guns are still more powerful than votes. Watching the Syrian-backed opposition hamstring the investigation into his father's murder will have been a bitter pill for Hariri and his followers to swallow. When the time comes to settle scores, they may be more likely to choose bullets rather than ballots to do the job.

What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:17 AM