Israel Matzav

Fayyad's rush to 'Palestine'

In an earlier post, I discussed the 'quartet's abandonment of the principle of reciprocity that was the underlying basis of the 'road map.' One of the reasons the 'quartet' has taken this action is that it's putting all of its eggs into one basket: The basket named Salam Fayyad. In August, Fayyad announced a plan to create a 'Palestinian state' by 2011 with or without Israeli consent. The 'quartet's plan has run into opposition from two quarters before it gets off the ground: Israel and Fatah.

Here are some of the Israeli objections:

Another direct challenge to Israel is that Fayyad's "blueprint" calls for massive Palestinian development in Area "C" of the disputed West Bank, which is under Israeli civil and security control, and which directly challenges the delicate, agreed-upon framework of the 1993 Oslo accords.35 Palestinian plans include building an airport in the Jordan Valley, taking control of Atarot airport near Jerusalem, establishing new rail links to neighboring states, and water installation projects near Tulkarem and Kalkilya close to the pre-1967 "green line."36 Israeli security echelons firmly oppose Palestinian airport development plans near Jerusalem and in the Jordan Valley.37 Furthermore, Fayyad's agenda has broader designs on Area "C." Fayyad told the Arab daily Al-Sharq al-Awsat in a September 1, 2009, interview: "Many think that zone "C" areas have become disputed territories rather than occupied territories in the public consciousness. We assert that these are PNA territories where the state will be established."38

The Israeli government is aware of the possibility of unilateral Palestinian moves in the ongoing dispute over the future of the West Bank. Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Quartet envoy Tony Blair and EU policy chief Javier Solana soon after the plan's release in August 2009: "Palestinian unilateral initiatives do not contribute to a positive dialogue between the parties and if the unilateral initiative presented by Salam Fayyad is promoted, Israel will respond."39 In a September 17, 2009, interview, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated his rejection of the Palestinian demand that the 1967 lines will become Israel's eastern border, which is a central part of Fayyad's plan. Netanyahu told the Israeli daily Israel Today: "There are those who prophesized that the 1967 lines would be (Israel's eastern) border, but these are indefensible, something that is unacceptable to me. Israel needs defensible borders and also the ongoing ability to defend itself."40

Netanyahu's comments were not made in a vacuum. They were based on Israel's international legal rights as preserved in UN Security Council Resolution 242. Netanyahu's insistence on "defensible borders" also stems from understandings Israel has secured with the U.S. in the past. The concept of "defensible borders" was a central element in President George W. Bush's letter to former Prime Minister Ariel Sharon of April 14, 2004, with a commitment made by the White House as a diplomatic quid pro quo for Israel's withdrawal from the Gaza Strip in August 2005.41 The Bush letter was approved overwhelmingly by both houses of the U.S. Congress immediately afterward.

...

Former IDF Intelligence Assessment Chief Maj.-Gen. (res.) Yaakov Amidror notes that the Jordan Valley now serves as an important natural barrier to the potential flow of rockets to the West Bank hilltops overlooking Israel's coastline, where they could easily strike Israel's main airport, key utilities, and most of Israel's major cities.44 Former IDF Chief of Staff Shaul Mofaz made a similar assessment to the Israeli cabinet in 2000 at the time of the Clinton proposals,45 while his successor as chief of staff, Moshe Yaalon, underscored the same requirement for defensible borders in the West Bank in 2008.46

And here are some of Fatah's objections.

Despite robust Western support, Fayyad's ambitious plan has enjoyed a mixed reception in Palestinian circles. Fatah has decided to give Fayyad's plan a chance due to the prospect of his implementing Palestinian state projects on an unprecedented scale.20 At the same time, Fayyad's agenda has triggered tensions in Fatah and the PLO and has drawn sharp criticism from the Arab media for co-opting the power and legitimacy of official PLO bodies.21

Fayyad has emphasized that any decision on a declaration of statehood at the end of two years would be made by the PLO organs.22 However, the Fayyad plan is seen to pose a direct challenge to Fatah and its leader, Mahmoud Abbas, who reiterated, when Fayyad presented the plan, that "negotiations with Israel are the only option for the Palestinian Authority."23 Furthermore, Fayyad's approach collides with Fatah's traditional platform of "armed struggle" to "liberate Palestine" using "all options" available, as confirmed at the recent Fatah Congress.24 Fayyad's program also contradicts the Fatah Congress' reaffirmation of a "one-state" solution in the event that negotiations over a "two-state" solution fail.25

Fayyad, who is not a member of the ruling Fatah movement, enjoys only limited political backing in the Fatah-led Palestinian Authority, particularly following the latest central committee elections in August 2009. Fatah's rejection of Fayyad was manifested in the rejection of his candidacy to the PLO executive committee, which, had he been elected, would have empowered him to declare a Palestinian state as part of the PLO political hierarchy. However, Fayyad reached a limited understanding with powerful Fatah warlord Mohammed Dahlan. In fact, Dahlan is currently one of Fayyad's staunchest supporters in the complex constellation of Palestinian politics. However, Fayyad's political rivals, such as Tawfiq Tirawi, Abu Maher Gneim, and Mahmud al-Alul, who support "armed resistance" against Israel and were recently elected to the new Fatah Central Committee, have already blasted Fayyad's plans as being a "governmental intifada" that contradicted the "armed struggle."

Fayyad needs to be elected either 'President' or 'Prime Minister' in the 2010 elections (assuming they happen) in order to be able to push his plan. While Fayyad has very little support within Fatah, he has lots of grassroots support. Ironically, that support is partly Israel's fault: It reflects the 'Palestinians' approval for what Fayyad has done with their economy - which could not have been done without Israel easing security restrictions in Judea and Samaria.

Read the whole thing.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:23 PM