Israel Matzav

A Syrian - Israeli 'peace' could lead to war

Israel is actually better off with its current state of no peace with Syria than it would be if it made peace with Syria. Quite simply, making peace with Syria makes war more likely.

A Damascus-Jerusalem deal might actually increase the chance of war. Syria could improve its military capability through an aid package similar to what Egypt receives, elevating it to a regional power with the capacity to challenge Israel on the battlefield.

Moreover, an agreement with Syria would require Israel to relinquish control of the Golan Heights, a plateau overlooking Israel's Hula Valley, which Israel captured in 1967. The Syrians used the Heights as a staging ground to bombard the Valley from 1948 through 1967.

The Golan is a hilly area with a rocky terrain. A high escarpment provides a vantage point over Damascus and the southern Syrian plain to the Golan's east. In the northern part of the region sits Mount Hermon, the highest point in the area, from which Israeli radar stations monitor Syria troop movement. At the western edge of the Golan are rock cliffs that drop 1,700 feet, to the pre-1967 lines below.

Under a Syrian-Israeli agreement, the Golan would become demilitarized (just as the Egyptian treaty demilitarized the Sinai Peninsula.) Hence, war on Israel's northern front would resemble a race, with Israel sprinting up the Heights to head off a Syrian attack. If Damascus launched a surprise strike on Israel, the topography is such that Syria would have a clear advantage in establishing dominance on the Golan's high grounds.

General Eiland notes that thirty years of peace on the Egyptian border does not demonstrate a Syrian-Israeli deal's utility. Even if-in a worse case scenario-Cairo re-oriented toward war, the Egyptian army is located on the Western side of the Sinai, 120 miles of flat terrain from the Israeli border. By contrast, if the Syrian regime breached a treaty with Israel, its military would have the ability to reach the Israeli border far quicker. The Golan is only 39 miles at its longest point.

The Israeli-Syrian status quo, in which the two sides maintain a Cold War-style quiet on their common border, remains the best option. While the reality is difficult to swallow, an agreement with Syria might allow the Assad regime to re-arm and gain a foothold atop the Golan, consequently moving the Middle East further away from peace.

The Golan is also much steeper overlooking the Israeli side than it is overlooking the Syrian side. In other words, while it provides a defensive advantage to Israel, it would provide an offensive advantage to Syria.

Israel would be foolish to give Syria the Golan. The Syrians, who are unwilling to stop supporting terror groups or break their ties with Iran in any event, have nothing to offer in return. Unfortunately, that's unlikely to stop the Obama administration from trying to force us into a deal with them. After all, they're also part of the 'Saudi plan.' And the Syrians are weaker now militarily than they have ever been. We'd be foolish to help rehabilitate them.

The picture is a bunker in Mitzpe Gadot on the edge of the Golan Heights. We were there two summers ago.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 4:32 PM