Israel Matzav

Surprise: Iran won't respond by September and Obama won't rush to impose sanctions

An American expert on Iran says that there is no way Iran will respond to President Obama's 'engagement' initiative by September, but it seems that the United States will be willing to wait longer.

"To think that at the same time as putting together his cabinet in the midst of the largest uprising since the Iranian revolution, and oh by the way, figure out a way to respond to the United States, that is just not going to happen," said Reza Aslan, an Iran expert and author in Los Angeles.

"He is going to have such a difficult time forming a government, let alone governing, and quite likely he will not even last another year. Any previous idea of a timeline needs to be thrown out the window," Aslan said.

...

U.S. officials have been watching the post-election turmoil in Iran, trying to assess how it might affect prospects for diplomacy with its long-time foe.

"They have been forced to see how things are going to shake out in Iran before taking any steps," said Steven Cook, a senior fellow for Middle Eastern studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.

"I think the administration is going to have to wait longer than some of these deadlines to see what direction Iran's system is going to go," he said.

Of course, while the US is 'waiting,' the centrifuges continue to spin Iran toward a nuclear weapon. But that's okay with Reuters, because September is Israel's deadline(!) and not the United States':

Iran watchers see those statements aimed primarily at appeasing U.S. ally Israel, which has reluctantly backed Obama's engagement policy while hinting it may take pre-emptive action against Iran's nuclear facilities if it believes U.S. diplomacy is going nowhere.

"One way and another, Mr Obama has been bounced into setting an early September deadline for Iran to reply to the U.S. offer of talks. (He) does not need to follow this timetable, which is dictated more by Israel than it is by a considered U.S. assessment of Iran's uranium enrichment capacity," Britain's Guardian newspaper said in an editorial.

Of course, once (if ever) the United States determines to set a course on sanctions, it will take 'months' to negotiate those sanctions with Europe, Russia and China (if indeed they can be negotiated at all), and the centrifuges will continue spinning during that period too.

What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 6:09 PM