Israel Matzav

What Iran thinks America is offering

Amir Taheri looks at the same editorial from Iran's Kayhan that I discussed on Monday night here, and explains what Iran thinks the Obama administration is offering.

In this theory, President Obama is trying to establish a linkage, whereby Israel would accept a nuclear-armed Iran while Iran would withdraw its opposition to a two-state solution for the Palestinian problem.

The paper also notes that Clinton has offered to help America's Arab allies build up their defenses in response to a nuclear-armed Iran. In other words, America will no longer focus its energies on stopping Iran from becoming nuclear, but instead deploy its power and prestige to prevent its Arab allies from building up a nuclear capability.

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The Kayhan editorial is of special interest because it implicitly admits that the Islamic Republic is at least planning to develop a nuclear arsenal. It contains none of the usual denials and claims that Iran's nuclear program is entirely peaceful and that the uranium it is enriching is for producing electricity.

But it also fails to make it clear whether Tehran might offer any concessions in exchange for its acceptance as a nuclear power. Ahmadinejad and "Supreme Guide" Ali Khamenei have both committed Iran to the so-called "one state solution" -- forming a single state out of Israel and the disputed territories with a referendum in which Palestinians everywhere would be able to vote. The Jewish state would be eliminated, giving way to a new Muslim-majority state in which Jews could live as a minority.

Abandoning that position wouldn't be easy for Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, who've built their reputations as radical Islamists in part on their insistence that no Jewish state should exist in "the heart of the Muslim world."

Even a tacit acceptance by America and Israel of a nuclear-armed Iran may not be enough to persuade Tehran's more radical factions to accept a two-state solution that would allow Israel to exist a Jewish state.

Of course, the regime might simply opt to use dissimulation, a technique sanctioned under Shiite Islam for deceiving the "infidel." The Islamic Republic could withdraw its opposition to the two-state solution in exchange for America's accepting Iran as a nuclear power; then, after the world has learned to live with a nuclear-armed Iran as it did with India and Pakistan, Tehran could revive its goal of wiping the Jewish state off the map. By that time, someone other than Obama may be in the White House.

Ahmadinejad anticipates having 'talks' with Obama after September's UN General Assembly meeting.

Unfortunately, Iran's interpretation of what Obama is offering may be correct. The US under Obama clearly has no desire to fight.

What could go wrong?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:54 AM