Israel Matzav

Iran to IAEA: Buzz off!

Iran has denied an IAEA request to install additional surveillance cameras at its Natanz nuclear site.

The diplomats said the Islamic Republic in recent weeks turned down a request from the International Atomic Energy Agency to place one or more additional surveillance cameras at the Natanz enrichment site.

In addition, they said, the agency was concerned Iran would use its recent denial of access to Natanz to agency inspectors seeking a surprise visit as a precedent, further hampering the UN agency's need to increase its oversight.

IAEA spokesman Marc Vidricaire said the agency would have no comment.

Al-AP refers to this as 'troubling,' but it seems that Iran already has enough uranium to make a nuclear weapon anyway.

Most experts estimate that the over 1,000 kilograms - 2,200 pounds - of low-enriched uranium Iran had accumulated by February was enough to produce enough weapons-grade material through further enrichment for one nuclear weapon.

And as it expands its operations at Natanz, its potential capacity to produce highly enriched uranium is also growing.

Last week, the Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security estimated that, with the nearly 5,000 centrifuges now fully operating, Iran could accumulate enough material to produce weapons-grade uranium for two warheads by February 2010 - or sooner, if it brought the more than 2,000 additional machines on line immediately.

Iran steadfastly refuses to stop enriching despite the imposition of three rounds of economic, trade and financial sanctions by the UN Security Council. Even if hardline President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad loses Iranian presidential elections starting Friday, expectations are low that the country will change its nuclear stance.

But the denial of the spot inspection may be even worse.

They said that Iran's refusal to allow any additional cameras was a setback, along with its recent denial of an IAEA spot inspection.

Last week's report referred to that denial, noting that - while Teheran allowed 25 unannounced inspections at Natanz since 2007, it blocked the request last month arguing the facility was off-limits because of a security drill.

I discussed the IAEA report here and here.

And don't expect any change as a result of the Iranian 'election' on Friday.

As a result of the Guardian Council's intervention, Iran's voters are left with a Potemkin election in which the survival of the guardians of Khomeini's Islamic revolution is guaranteed. And just in case there was any possibility that the Internet generation might be tempted to mobilize disenchanted voters, the authorities have taken the precaution of closing the Facebook Web site for the duration of the campaign.

All of this makes for an unpleasant situation in the White House, which is still clinging to the hope that it can establish a constructive dialogue with Tehran. Since coming to office, Mr. Obama has gone out of his way to extend the hand of friendship to Iran, pledging that he is prepared to open direct negotiations with Iran if Tehran would be prepared, as he said in his inaugural speech, to "unclench its fist."

But to date Mr Obama has received precious little in return from Iran for this extravagant gesture. When not celebrating the launch of ballistic missiles capable of hitting Israel, Mr. Ahmadinejad has remained defiant about Iran's right to develop its illicit nuclear program, repeatedly rejecting proposals to freeze its activities in return for an easing of economic sanctions.

No matter who wins this "election," Mr. Obama should expect more of the same.

Albert Einstein famously quipped that insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Maybe it's time to stop trying to 'engage' Iran?

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:49 PM