Israel Matzav

What Iran wants

Writing in the Wall Street Journal, Uzi Rubin, who headed Israel's missile defense for eight years, explains why we should all take seriously Iran's missile launch this month (Hat Tip: Hot Air).

Contrary to statements such as David Albright's, the Safir demonstrates a fair amount of sophistication for an initial launcher. The question remains whether this sophistication is indigenous and what features, if any, have been imported from abroad. Some of the Safir's features bear the telltale signs of previous space launching experience, implying outside help. Such help could come from any country that possesses Soviet-era missile and space technology. Yet the Safir is far more advanced than North Korea's space launcher. This fact -- and the magnitude of the entire Iranian space enterprise -- indicates that much of the success is homegrown.

The magnitude of the Safir launch becomes more apparent when we consider it alongside the much less advertised launch of the Sajeel two-stage solid-propellant ballistic missile that preceded it in November 2008. Within the space of four short months the Iranians demonstrated a mastery of three different rocket propulsion technologies (liquid, storable liquid, and large diameter solid), three different thrust vectoring technologies (graphite jet vanes, tungsten jet vanes, gimbaled rocket motors), two systems of stage separation, and an embryonic multiple-warhead nose fairing. All the above are proscribed technologies whose international transfers are controlled by the Missile Technology Control Regime and by the national legislations of its subscribing countries. By rights, none of those technologies should have been available to Iran. This is a significant setback to international nonproliferation efforts and an encouragement to future proliferators.

To argue that the Safir is too puny to be used as an ICBM is to miss the big picture. It is the technology and talent behind the Safir that is cause for trepidation. Taken in context, the Safir demonstrates scientific and engineering proficiency coupled with global-range missile technology in the hands of a radical regime and a nuclear wannabe. Iran's disclosed road map to space includes more capable, heavier and higher orbiting satellites. This will require heftier space launchers, the construction of which would enrich Iran's rocket-team experience and whose building blocks could easily be used for ICBMs in due time.

Trivializing Iran's first space launch as "largely symbolic" demonstrates a lack of appreciation of what it really symbolizes: That Iran is now poised to project power globally. If alarm bells aren't yet ringing for the Obama administration, they should be.

Read the whole thing. But here in Israel Ilan Mizrachi, the former head of the National Security Council, believes that Iran will shy away from direct confrontation and will only attack Israel through its proxies, Hamas and Hezbullah.

Iran, he said, was pressing Hamas to attempt to take control of the West Bank in order to open a new front against Israel. It was also keen on seeing Hizbullah take over Lebanon, he said.

Mizrahi added that Iran would arrive at any dialogue with the US weaker, due to the relative quiet on the Israeli-Lebanese border and in Iraq. While Iran would be willing to make some concessions regarding Hamas in such dialogue, it would not make compromises at Hizbullah's expense, he said.

And then there was a third piece of news on Iran today:

Iran has completed construction on its Bushehr nuclear power plant. Meanwhile, Iran's official news agency said Sunday the country's first nuclear power plant would begin preliminary phase operation on Wednesday after a series of delays.

The Sunday report by the IRNA agency said "pilot stage operation" of the Bushehr power plant would start on Wednesday during a visit by the head of Russia's state Rosatom Atomic Corporation, Sergey Kiriyenko.

...

A US analyst of the Islamic republic has told The Jerusalem Post that Iran is speeding ahead toward the production of a nuclear weapon, and is operating a shadow nuclear program in tandem with its public program to achieve that goal.

The Obama administration thinks it can talk Iran out of its nuclear program. In the end, it will be left to Israel - regardless of who is in the government - to take action. Don't be taken in by the hope that Iran will be content to attack Israel through Hamas and Hezbullah. That won't last long once Iran has a nuclear capability.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:40 PM