Israel Matzav

No one believes a 'cease fire' with the 'Palestinians' will work

A survey of Israelis shows that a vast majority - 68% - oppose the 'cease fire' being negotiated with Hamas if it does not include the release of kidnapped IDF corporal Gilad Shalit (it doesn't and the two sides are far apart on the number of terrorists to be released in exchange for Shalit). 30% of Israelis support such a cease fire. Even with Shalit's release included, some 50% still oppose a cease fire with Hamas. The reason most people gave for opposing the 'cease fire' was that it would give the 'Palestinians' time to rearm and regroup. The average Israeli realizes that's a bad idea. The poll was conducted by Hebrew University's Truman Institute between May 27 and June 7 and has a margin of error of +/- 3%. Since it doesn't say otherwise, I would assume that the numbers include 'Israeli Arabs' which means that the percentage of Jews opposed to the truce is likely even higher. The average Israeli seems not too concerned about Ehud Barak's political career.

On the other hand, the cabinet seems very concerned about Barak's political career, even though most of them opposed a 'cease fire' in the past. There doesn't seem to be any other explanation for this (Hat Tip: IMRA).

There are 12 ministers with cabinet voting rights; 11 of them have expressed a decisive stance against the truce in the past. Their opinion was expressed more than once or twice both behind closed doors and openly. They do not believe that the Egyptian-mediated ceasefire will result in anything aside from serious damage to Israel’s security.

So how did they still vote in favor of continuing the abandonment of southern communities to mortar, Qassam, and Grad attacks? Six of them voted in favor of the truce: Ehud Olmert, Tzipi Livni, Ehud Barak, Avi Dichter, Rafi Eitan, and Binyamin Ben-Eliezer. Four of them abstained: Haim Ramon, Daniel Friedmann, Eli Yishai, and Shaul Mofaz. Nobody objected to the truce.

Mofaz’s associates had the following message: “Nobody should be charging us with indecision and lack of leadership.” They said that the man who in 2004 led the move to assassinate 10 senior Hamas figures believes that “between a major military operation in Gaza and a lull lies a large grey area that can be used in order to pulverize the enemy.”

When it came around to decision time in the cabinet, Mofaz expressed his opinion for the protocol and abstained in the vote. As it turns out, Shaul does not speak out against the defense establishment’s position. That’s why he zigzagged again, that’s why he abstained, that’s why he did not vote like his mind and his heart would have him vote.

...

Or how about Shas leader Eli Yishai, who in the past said that villages and towns in Gaza should be flattened, and added that a lull would be a sign of Israeli weakness? The same Yishai who called for intensive military operations in order to protect southern residents, yet despite all chose to abstain in Wednesday’s vote. What does he say? How does he explain his changing positions?

“I wasn’t at peace with myself, not because of the lull, but rather, because of Gilad Shalit. During days like this we should not emphasize the things that split the nation,” he told his associates to explain his failure to object to the truce.

This is a government that says both “yes and no.” A government that has not read the writing on the wall, or the signs held up by protestors who arrived from southern kibbutzim: “The State of Israel seeks leaders who are able to make decisions.”

Not surprisingly, most 'Palestinians' very much want a 'cease fire.' But only if it contains conditions that Israel has never offered.

The poll, which was carried out together with the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah, also reported that 78% of Palestinians support a cease-fire with Israel so long as it includes the handover of the West Bank as part of a Palestinian state. Support drops to around 20% if this clause is excluded.

The immediate opening of the Rafah crossing between Gaza and Sinai is another necessary stipulation to ensure a Palestinian majority in support of a truce, the poll found.

But Israel has never even been willing to discuss including the 'West Bank' Judea and Samaria, and on Thursday it gave an absolute no to reopening the Rafah crossing. So this sounds like a pipe dream - they're agreeing to something that's never been offered.

For that matter, a 'pipe dream' might be the best description both sides would give to the creation of a 'Palestinian' state reichlet anytime soon.

The survey also showed that a majority of both Israelis and Palestinians don't believe that a Palestinian state will be created within the next five years. Sixty-nine percent of Israelis and 66% of Palestinians believe that the chances of a Palestinian state being established in the next five years are nonexistent or weak.

By the way, 67% of Israelis now oppose turning the Golan over to Syria as part of a 'peace deal,' which is up from 56% in March. Time for the Olmert-Barak-Livni-Yishai government - which has proposed all of these failed ideas - to go home and let someone better try.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:04 AM