Israel Matzav

The next terror base?

Guy Bechor describes a frightening scenario that could result if Israel were to - God forbid - give the Golan to Syria.

Let’s assume, just for the sake of making a point, that Syria will get the Golan Heights, which is sovereign Israeli territory in every way (Israeli law applies there just as much as it does in Herzliya; it is impossible to evacuate residents from there the way they were removed from Gaza, because property rights in the Golan are identical to the ones in Tel Aviv.) What will Bashar Assad do in such case?

Phase 1: About a million Syrian residents will be settled in the Golan immediately. The Syrians are already arguing that about 100,000 Syrians fled the Golan in 1967. If we count them and their descendents, we’re already at 500,000. You want proof? Even though the Golan Heights are not in Syrian hands, a presidential decree has already been issued announcing that any Syrian resident who moves to the Golan will receive a government allowance.

This is what the Syrians did in Lebanon in order to take it over. While the Syrian army was forced to withdraw from Lebanon, the Syrians left 800,000 laborers behind who work in Lebanon and transfer their salaries back to Syria. And so, the Syrian chokehold on Lebanon has remained intact, despite the apparent withdrawal. Elsewhere in the world, the Syrians would be referred to as “settlers.” Israel is not allowed to do the same. But when Syria does this, it’s apparently ok.

Phase 2: This will enable Bashar Assad to realize his dream with no interruptions – establishing a “resistance” against Israel in the Golan Heights. Officially, he will argue that he has no connection to the terror attacks that would be directed at the Galilee region and northern Israel from the Golan, heaven forbid, yet in practice Syrian intelligence officers will do as they please vis-à-vis northern Israel. In fact, they already did it in northern Lebanon.

Lebanon’s pro-government leader Saad al-Hariri openly accused Syria and its intelligence agencies not only of being behind the acts of two odd underground groups, but of “inventing"” them in order to sabotage Lebanon. Why won’t the Syrians do the same in the Golan? Would a peace deal with Israel stop them? With Lebanon they have not only peace, but even an official relationship of fraternity and friendship.

Phase 3 will surprise you and while it's plausible, I'm not sure it's anywhere near as likely as the first two phases. But I would regard the first two phases as likely.

Read the whole thing.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 1:50 PM