Israel Matzav

In defeat for Ahmadinejad, Larijani elected parliament speaker

In what is viewed as a defeat for President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, his political rival Ali Larijani (pictured) was elected speaker of the Iranian parliament.

Larijani, a close ally and foreign policy consultant of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamanai, won a landslide victory in the parliamentary vote, defeating Ahmadinejad's favorite, former speaker Ghoulam Ali Hadad Adil.

Larijani served as chief nuclear negotiator until late 2005, when he resigned over differences of opinion with the president's non-compromising hard-line view regarding the nuclear program.

The massive support Larijani enjoys within Iran's parliament and the Guardian Council, combined with his powerful position as parliament speaker, will enable him to guide the parliament according to his views, at times at the expense of Ahmadinejad.

His election will give him power to influence Ahmadinejad's policies on many levels, including "the controversial budget next year… the ratification of legislation… and the debate between the Majlis [parliament] and the Guardian Council," Prof. Anoush Ehteshami of the International Relations Department at Durham University in England told The Media Line.

But as powerful as his current position may be, Larijani may regard it as just a launching pad to a much higher position - that of Ahmadinejad's.

While the Iranian president is hoping to secure a second term in office, analysts see Larijani as an obvious candidate for next year's presidential election.

"You have got a front-runner of the conservative camp, close to the [Supreme] Leader, taking on the current conservative president," said Ehteshami.

According to Ehteshami, Larijani's election sends a warning to Ahmadinejad and his considerable support base, particularly within the Revolutionary Guards, that there are other conservative forces that are jockeying for the presidency, and that the president is no longer able to "ride the conservative wave" in the absence of the reformists.

This has been Ahmadinejad's second major hurdle in the last few months, after the election last September of another political adversary - ex-president Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani - as head of the Assembly of Experts.

So does this mean anything regarding Iran's development of nuclear weapons? At this point, Iran may be far enough along that there won't be elections there until after Ahmadinejad has nuclear weapons at his disposal. Can we envision a scenario where Ahmadinejad attacks Israel with nuclear weapons and then calls new elections? You bet. God forbid. Those who want to head off Iran's nuclear weapons should be encouraging Iranian opposition groups. While Larijani's election has to be viewed as a positive development, it's by no means a guarantee of getting the world out of the woods of dealing with a nuclear armed Iran.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:08 PM