Israel Matzav

What if 500,000 Gazans march on Erez (crossing point into Israel)?

On Friday, Hamas threatened that the 'next time' they will send 500,000 'Palestinians' to march on the Erez crossing point into Israel. Can Israel handle that kind of crush of civilians? According to Rebecca Anna Stoil of the Jerusalem Post, there is nothing to fear.

The IDF has said in the past that it would respond to such provocations by utilizing nonlethal crowd control methods, and maintain its usual rules of engagement, in which troops would use live fire only if physically threatened.

Even in such situations, the initial response would be to fire into the air, then at would-be assailants' legs - and finally to shoot to kill if the attack did not cease.

Schweitzer said that if such a protest ended with Palestinian casualties, it would have serious implications for Israel in the international stage, increasing the media victory for Hamas.

"They know that the use of civilian protest to pass along a political message can be more effective than shooting bullets," he said, emphasizing that "Hamas knows how to use psychological and media warfare to its advantage."

He suggested that security forces attempt to place physical - and intelligence - obstacles in the protesters' path, as well as utilizing nonlethal technology.

Among the methods already in use by the IDF is "the Scream" - a machine that releases sound pulses that cause nausea, disorientation and dizziness.

US forces in Iraq have found that their Active Denial System (ADS) - known as the "pain ray" - is also quite effective in crowd control.

The ADS - which, unlike the Scream, cannot be blocked by plugging one's ears - is a strong millimeter-wave transmitter that excites water molecules in the skin to around 55 degrees Celsius, thereby causing protesters to experience a burning sensation, without actually burning them.

It is believed, however, that prolonged exposure or malfunctions leading to increased strength of microwaves could be fatal to protesters.

You can bet that the 'Palestinians' are aware of the utility of ear plugs to block the 'Scream' and will approach Erez with ear plugs in their ears. Does Israel have access to the Active Denial System and if so will it use it? I would not bet on the answer to either of those questions being yes. With the Olmert-Barak-Livni junta in power, I fear that those 500,000 'Palestinians' - probably 'mostly women and children' would be allowed to cross into Israel 'temporarily' and herded into a 'sterile' area nearby, from which many of them would undoubtedly escape. This is a real scenario that the current government is unlikely to have the smarts to meet. Fortunately, the 'Palestinians' sated much of their desire for 'supplies' in Egypt last week. Let's hope they don't get the urge to blow up another fence anytime soon.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:46 AM