Israel Matzav

War not is likely in 2007

If you don't read past the headlines today on the websites of the Jerusalem Post and YNet, you would think that war is unlikely in 2007. But if you read between the lines, you find out that the opposite is true. War is very likely in 2007, and if I were betting I'd look for it late in the spring when the weather gets warm. Here's why:

1. Hezbullah has returned to its pre-war strength. When the head of Israeli military intelligence told the Knesset Defense and Foreign Affairs Committee about that fact earlier in the week, he was forced by 'Defense Minister' Amir Comrade Peretz to retract. But all the retractions in the world are not going to change reality. And reality is that Hezbullah is stronger than last summer.

2. While YNet reports that a wide-scale confrontation with Syria in 2007 is 'unlikely,' Haaretz is reporting that the United States has ordered Israel to cease all negotiations with Syria.

The American argument is that even "exploratory talks" would be considered a prize in Damascus, whose policy and actions continue to undermine Lebanon's sovereignty and the functioning of its government, while it also continues to stir unrest in Iraq, to the detriment of the U.S. presence there.

While there is some argument over whether Syria really wants peace (I agree with the Mossad that they do not, but Military Intelligence thinks they do), there is nothing to deter them from making war, and it would certainly be in Iran's interest for Israel to fight Syria - it would distract the world from Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons. And Iran controls Syria now.

3. YNet admits that any 'irregular incident' could set off the Gaza Strip. But with the 'Palestinians' moving towards reconciliation, it is likely that once they are reconciled they likely will, as 'moderate' 'Palestinian President' Mahmoud Abbas Abu Mazen has suggested in the past, turn their guns on Israel. So don't let anyone kid you. Unfortunately, it's likely to be a hot summer here forty summers after the Six Day War.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 3:42 PM