Israel Matzav

Iran and Syria trying to bring down Siniora government

The New York Times is reporting this morning that the White House said on Wednesday that there is 'mounting evidence' that Iran and Syria are trying to bring down the Siniora government in Lebanon.

American officials said they had evidence that Syria and Iran were trying to engineer the creation of a new “unity” government that they could control, partly through Hezbollah, a Lebanese Shiite organization considered a terrorist group by the United States.

One senior American official, who declined to be identified by name because he was discussing an intelligence issue, said there were also indications of “planning for a more violent” attack on the government, but he gave no details.

In the written statement, issued by the White House press secretary, Tony Snow, the administration also said there were “indications” that Syria was trying to block passage of a statute by the Lebanese Parliament that would require that Lebanon cooperate with an international tribunal that is to try those accused of involvement in the assassination of the former prime minister, Rafik Hariri, in February 2005. Syria has denied involvement, though Syrian intelligence officials, including close family members of President Bashar al-Assad, have been implicated.

In interviews in recent days, senior American officials have said the evidence is one reason that the United States cannot engage in negotiations with Syria or Iran, as several leading Republicans, including the former Secretary of State James A. Baker III, have urged.

“Talking isn’t a strategy,” the president’s national security adviser, Stephen J. Hadley, said in an interview late last week before heading to Iraq. “The issue is how can we condition the environment so that Iran and Syria will make a 180 degree turn?” a reference to what he said were their efforts to undermine stability in the region.

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The White House clearly hopes that its public support will buttress the American-backed government, but some experts in Beirut warned that it may well have had the opposite effect. The government’s chief critics, including the Hezbollah leader, Hassan Nasrallah, have charged that those who control the government are puppets of Washington.

“Love can be deadly,” said the speaker of Parliament, Nabih Berri, after hearing Washington’s charges on Wednesday. “Is it a defense for Lebanon? Or pushing it toward chaos? Is it a support for the government? Or incitement against it?”

While Iran and Syria have long maneuvered for position in Lebanon, there is also a local fight under way over who controls the reins of power. Hezbollah and its chief ally, the former general Michel Aoun, are pressing to extend their control. The March 14 coalition is struggling to hold them back.

With its announcement, Washington has adopted the political talking points of its closest ally in Beirut, the Druse leader Walid Jumblatt, who has repeatedly sought to undermine Hezbollah by charging it is nothing more than a puppet of Iran and Syria. Mr. Jumblatt was visiting Washington this week and met with Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

In an interview, a member of Mr. Jumblatt’s party, the Progressive Socialist Party, said he agreed with Washington’s characterization of how events may unfold.

“We have evidence of the Iranian-Syrian-Hezbollah plan,” said Akram Chehayeb, a member of Parliament. His proof, he said, included statements by Syrian officials close to Iran who called for toppling the government, and a speech by the Syrian president in which he said “we have to translate our military victory into a political one.”

It was unclear to what extent Washington may have relied on that information in making its assertions.

In a television interview on Tuesday, Mr. Nasrallah said that if his political opponents did not accept a national unity government, he would rally his supporters in the streets.

Mr. Nasrallah’s influence is clear: when the fractious parties sit down to talk on Monday only Hezbollah’s demands will be on the agenda. In addition to the unity government, which would bring Hezbollah’s allies into power, the group wants to amend the election law and call early elections for Parliament.

It's too bad that Siniora is too scared to negotiate with Israel. We could do more to strengthen his government than anyone else.

Update 5:23 PM

For the record, Syria is denying this story.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 5:06 PM