Israel Matzav

Israel and US running scared of Iran

US Secretary of State Rice's current trip to the Middle East is a sign of the lack of confidence Israel and the US have in any kind of military option against Iran. That's the implication of this Asia Times article, which views Rice's trip as an attempt to get Arab countries on board against Iran. The question is: on board for what and at what price?

The Hezbollah-Israel war emerged as a blessing from the Arab perspective. It punctured Israel's aura of invincibility, as Hezbollah's rag-tag fighters performed impressively in that war. Now, the leaders of the Jewish state are truly shaken about Iran's growing capabilities of making the best of its military weakness, vis-a-vis Israel, in a future conflict.

After all, it was Iran's training of Hezbollah and provisions of its military wherewithal that enabled that entity to stand up to the mightiest armed forces in the Middle East. As much as the Israeli military is equipped with cutting-edge US-supplied technology, there is a growing fear within the Israeli ruling circles that in a conventional war with Iran, Tehran's yet-to-be-known asymmetric capabilities might inflict another defeat on Israel.

Consequently, the Bush administration and Israel are waging a two-front diplomatic offensive with moderate Arabs to create a united front against Iran. While Rice is making a high-profile visit to the region, Israel's diplomats are approaching the Arab sheikhdoms for a rapprochement through secret channels. Last week, there were unconfirmed reports of a meeting between Saudi and Israeli officials. The fact that both sides were so coy about it only intensified speculation about such a contact.

No one knows for sure, but the understanding is that Israelis are enticing the Gulf sheikhs with a probable concession on the Palestinian issue. That would only nullify the intense sense of shame and inadequacy within the Arab ruling circles that Iran is outshining them in Lebanon and in support of the Palestinian cause. In return for such a concession on the Palestinian issue, Israelis are reportedly asking the Arab states to create a united front against the "mounting Iranian threat".

If Israel indeed is seeking a rapprochement with the Arabs by playing on their apprehensions regarding Iran, it shows how seriously the Israelis envisage the Islamic Republic's escalating clout in the Middle East. The question remains, however, whether the Arab states will fall for the Israeli maneuver and try to gang up on Iran, or whether they will really drive a hard bargain and gain concessions on the Palestinian issue without really creating an anti-Iran front.

If Arabs know one very harsh reality about the US and Israel, they know that neither of these actors will offer any concessions to the Arab side unless they are really convinced that their bargaining position has eroded perceptibly. If that indeed is the case, then the Arabs will have to think long and hard whether they really want to fall for US-Israeli promises of breakthroughs and concessions and revive the Arab-Persian animosity, an option that might not be in their collective best interests.

Read the whole thing.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:16 AM