Israel Matzav

Iran and Israel

The bottom line for Iran is that none of the above options, by themselves or in combination, represent an effective response to the geostrategic circumstances in which it finds itself in the aftermath of the war in Lebanon. As a result, a large-scale Iranian attack against Israel with Syria ’s help is certainly not a wildly hypothetical possibility in the war’s wake. While risky, Tehran may feel this option offers the best prospect of blunting the effects of a likely Israeli preemption.

In this context, the culmination of recent military exercises with the test firing of a one-ton guided flying bomb is telling. While the publicity accorded the test may indicate Iran deterrent motives, for instance by signaling its ability to hold the Dimona reactor hostage, the fact remains that Iran is developing the capacity to hit hardened targets. This could facilitate an attack on Israel, by seeking to surprise the IAF in its hangars or even preempting Israel’s reported hardened storage sites of its nuclear warheads.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 12:13 AM