Israel Matzav: Iran aims for superpower Muslim bloc; Annan says world should 'count on' Iran, not isolate it

Tuesday, September 05, 2006

Iran aims for superpower Muslim bloc; Annan says world should 'count on' Iran, not isolate it

The Boston Globe has a lengthy analysis of the debate between 'moderates' and 'hardliners' in Iran over the country's future role in the world. Since it's clear that the country's President, Mahmoud Ahmadinadinnerjacket, comes down on the side of the hardliners, let's look at what the hardliners are saying in the debate:

To Amir Mohabian, a conservative journalist who is seen as close to Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the Islamic republic's destiny -- maybe in 50 years -- is to lead a Muslim bloc that could rival the United States, Europe, and China for global influence.

``The US is the superpower, but this is not permanent," Mohabian said from behind thick glasses in his small news agency office. ``It's possible that the Muslim bloc can be one of the superpower blocs. . . . We should prepare ourselves."

To that end, he said, Iran is right to refuse international demands to suspend nuclear development, and it is right to leave the world in the dark about how close it may be to having a nuclear bomb.

``Dark corners are very important," he said. ``Having dark corners increases the costs of any action [against Iran], and helps delay a decision."

...

Behind the conflict is an Iranian identity crisis, said Said Leylaz, an economist and sometime adviser to Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the reformist cleric who heads a council of clerics that is powerful within the government but who lost his presidential bid last year to hard-liner Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.

National pride and 27 years of revolutionary ideology, he said, make it impossible for Iran's theocratic regime to accept US domination in the Middle East or to sign on as a US client like the late shah, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi, whose monarchy it overthrew in 1979. But, Leylaz added, Iran isn't strong enough to go it alone.

Playing on Iranian pride, Ahmadinejad has adopted a policy of flamboyant defiance that ranges from a decree banning non-Persian words such as ``pizza" and embracing Hugo Chávez, the populist anti-American leader of Venezuela.

Ahmadinejad has raised more serious fears by vowing to destroy Israel and declaring the Holocaust a myth. And he has become increasingly confident after Israel failed in a month of fighting to decisively defeat the Lebanese militia Hezbollah, Iran's one real regional client and the centerpiece of its dreams of influence.

Ray Takeyh, an analyst on Iran at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington, said that even relative moderates in the government now reject suspending uranium as the precondition for talks because a previous suspension during three years of talks with Europe didn't lead to a deal -- and because their fear of the United States is waning [thanks to the American left calling into question American willingness to get the job done in Iraq. CiJ].

``Iran, rightly or wrongly, sees itself as empowered and ascending, and the US as a declining power in the region," he said, so the government has concluded, ``We're not going to pay tribute just to engage in a negotiating process."

But Bavand, a snowy-haired academic whose living room is decorated with European-style statuettes and photographs of his ancestors serving in various Persian uniforms , believes Iran is overestimating its hand.

He said conventional wisdom holds that the United States is too bogged down in Iraq to attack Iran, but that the Israel- Lebanon conflict changed the equation: If the cease-fire remains shaky and tensions rise between Israel and Syria, Iran's ally, the chances of a US or Israeli attack on Syria would increase and ``a dark shadow will fall on Iran." [Then it's time for that attack to happen. Too bad it didn't happen last month when we had the opportunity. CiJ]

But al-Reuters reports that UN Secretary General ~~Kofi~~ Goofy Annan says that the 'international community' should 'count on' Iran and not isolate it:

"The international community should count on Iran, not isolate it," Annan said in an interview with El Pais in Qatar which was published on Tuesday.

Annan spoke to El Pais after a weekend visit to Tehran as part of a Middle Eastern tour to shore up the ceasefire that ended fighting between Israel and the Iranian-backed Lebanese Hizbollah.

"The general perception is that Iran is acting on its own, giving money to Hezbollah. In my conversations in Tehran, I asked the Iranians to work with other countries in reconstruction. They accepted my request, which is a very helpful attitude," Annan said.

Iran's stand-off with Western powers over its nuclear programme can only be resolved via negotiation, he said.

"The main thing is we have to avoid confrontation. This is an issue which requires patience and perseverance. The viable solution is negotiation," he said.

The United States says Iran, which failed to meet a Security Council deadline to stop enriching uranium, is trying to develop nuclear weapons.

"The Iranians assured me that they are not seeking nuclear weapons and their intentions are peaceful. Nonetheless, they have to find a way of reassuring the world and guaranteeing that these really are their intentions," Annan said.