Israel Matzav

Has Iran sold out Hezbullah and Syria?

One of the commenters last night left me a link to an article on his own blog, which can be found here. It's worth reading the whole thing (other than the reference to 'Israeli butchers' which I thought was not called for), but I wanted to focus on this part:

However did you expect such a cowardly response from your Iranian masters? I bet you did not; they distanced themselves so sneakily out of this disaster, how convenient. I don’t think the Israeli barbarism surprised you nor did the American complicity in the crime of burning up Lebanon and destroying its innocence and civilization. I don’t think you were betting on the Syrians as well, after all their army has not fought a regular war since 1973 and you know how out of date their weapons are, not to mention their miserable air force or air defense system. You are fully aware of our Assad’s strategic choice for Peace, because he has no other option.

But Holly Iran, Khomeini Iran, Khamenei Iran, Najjad Iran, they supposedly have good weapons and they have experience fighting wars. Were they not parading all their new toys and missiles just few months ago? Were they not inflating their international support coming from Russia and China? Aren’t they close to having an atomic bomb? Aren’t they supposedly the defenders of Shias and Islam? Didn’t they share the post-Saddam Iraq cake with the Americans? Why they are selling you out? Aren’t you worth some kind of solidarity for your services? Isn’t the tragedy in Lebanon diverting attention for the nuclear choices of Iran?

While you are getting hits left and right from the Israelis as well as the Arabs pissed at your fatal gambling and adventurism, Iran say if Syria is attacked then it is an attack on the Islamic nation! Well apparently Lebanon is not part of that nation. Now they say that if Syria is attacked it is still ok, apparently the Syrians are being sold out as well. Then you have the oil minister of Iran, declaring than Iranian supply of oil won’t be interrupted not even a barrel, despite all this hell in the Middle East. He speaks like he is the oil minister of Norway!!! Saying that oil is out of the pressure or political game! Wow, how you can know your friends in difficult times.

They push you to your own peril by arming and pumping you then they quietly and may be religiously watch you burn and take alone a lovely country with you. Just remember worshipping fire was their religion before converting to Islam for political purposes, so Lebanon getting destroyed is part of their rituals. I still remember my Iranian university friend who was limping because of injuries during the war of Iraq-Iran, and how he almost died as a soldier then was taken as a prisoner, for a war that he described as very silly and useless.

Iran please, for just one day, a lonely day out of 365 days, you can take it, cut the oil as a solidarity gesture and frighten some capitalists to push for a cease fire for this insane war. What are you doing with the money anyway? Is Iran getting more advanced? no, are the people happier? no, where is the money? Buying weapons that you don’t use! or stored in some capitalist country or under the rulers beds! Simple math, you cut the oil one day and the prices go up! it is like burning a rare stamp to increase value for the remaining ones! now you adhere to the world community after nurturing and inventing terrorism, hostage taking, religious extremism, torturing women and liberals the last 27 years. You are miserable just like the Arab leaders and lunatics who entrusted you to come for their support and help.

Here's what I think:

1. I think that Nasrallah jumped the gun here. Recall that Iran has a deadline to 'get back' to the UN by August 22. My guess is that Iran wanted to be further on with its nuclear development before getting involved in a war like this. Recall also that Hezbullah has said that they did not expect Israel to react so strongly. And of course, that Hezbullah was 'planning a war' for October. My guess is that Hezbullah may not have inteded to start a war now either. Nasrallah just did something stupid.

2. Iran will not cut off oil for two reasons. First, because Ahmadinadinnerjacket doesn't want to give Israel and/or the US any excuse to come after him until he is further along in his nuclear development. He knows that he stands no chance against the US and/or Israel unless and until he is nuclear. Second, because even if he did cut off oil, the Saudis are so angry at Iran and Hezbullah that they would probably just make up the difference. I also wonder how much oil Iran is selling today anyway. I know that no one in the US will touch Iranian oil.

3. I agree with you that Iran will not come to Syria's defense. Which is why it's a pity that the Israeli leadership is too feckless to depose the chinless ophthalmologist and give people like Fares (the writer) a chance to make something out of their country.

4. You refer (and I'm addressing Fares directly, because I am sure he will come back and read this) to 'Israeli barbarism' and to 'American complicity in the crime of burning up Lebanon.' Unfortunately, when 'fighters' hide among women and children, women and children get killed. That's why there is a Geneva Convention, which prohibits 'fighters' from hiding among the civilian population, but gives armies the right to go after them if they do hide among the civilians (yes, that's what the convention says). Israel has no designs on Lebanese territory and wishes no harm to (those of) the Lebanese people (who do not support Hezbullah), something that I have written on one or two Lebanese blogs as well. But we cannot go back to the status quo of two weeks ago (is that all it was?) and the only way Israel is going to bring about an acceptable solution at the bargaining table is to try to get enough time to pound Hezbullah and then to use that time efficiently. The Americans are 'playing along' because they also have an interest in pounding Hezbullah and Iran. Yes, the Lebanese people are pawns and that is unfortunate. But my government would be remiss if it did not react to Hezbullah's provocation by pounding the you-know-what out of it.

P.S. to Fares - I am very right wing even by Israeli standards. No one here has designs on Lebanese territory.

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:22 AM