Israel Matzav

Olmert's Coalition Difficulties and Uncertainties

Earlier today, President Moshe Katzav began interviewing party leaders to see whom to ask to form the next governing coalition. Instead of recommending Ehud Olmert - under the threat of being excluded from the government - the Labor party recommended its leader, Amir Peretz. Arutz Sheva reports that Ehud Olmert is finding coalition building to be rough going:

Army Radio political affairs commentator Amit Segal told Arutz-7 today,

"I believe that Peretz is seeking a rotation agreement for position of Prime Minister. [Such an agreement was made in 1984 between Shimon Peres (Labor) and Yitzchak Shamir (Likud), each of whom served for two years - ed.] He hopes to tell the President, 'Look, I have 50 MKs supporting me [a combination of Labor, Meretz, Shas, UTJ and even Likud - ed.] - does Olmert have much more than that? If not, then let's go for a rotation.'"

Segal said that a major question that will influence how stable an Olmert-led government is how many embittered seniors there will be in Kadima:

"The reason why Olmert is insisting on keeping the senior posts, in addition to wanting to control the Finance Ministry, is because he does not want to face another phenomenon of party rebels, as occurred in the Likud against Sharon. There are several people there who are good at breaking up parties. If Sha'ul Mofaz or Dalia Itzik [formerly of Labor; she has acknowledged a history of not being easy on party leaders - ed.] do not receive senior ministries, they will clearly not settle for being simple MKs, and Olmert knows this. [Given how Kadima Achora has been throwing out the Defense Ministry to anyone who wants it, I find it hard to believe that Mofaz is going to end up with a 'senior ministry.' Likewise, I don't see how Olmert can possibly give all three senior Labor defectors - Slimy Shimon Peres, Chaim Ramon and Itzik - 'senior ministries.' CiJ] His drop from 40 MKs [in early polls] to 29 MKs means he can't control the agenda of the government and the distribution of the ministries. If he can figure out how to keep the others happy, he will be able to survive."

"And another point to keep in mind," Segal said, "is the hareidi parties. Together, Shas and United Torah Judaism [Agudah] number 18 MKs, which is a significant force. They have now started to cooperate in coalition negotiations. This is mainly because UTJ realizes now that its behavior during the Disengagement - the fact that it helped keep the government together - hurt it during the election campaign. Even though UTJ ultimately gained a seat and now has 6 MKs, the fact is that it started out the campaign badly, even fearing that it would drop to 4."

"In general," Segal concluded, "if we thought that this coalition would be easy for Olmert, that's not what is happening. He is going to try to do what Sharon did - to form a social-based coalition for the purpose of carrying out a diplomatic plan, but it will not be easy."

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:32 PM