I have now resolved at least some of the confusion regarding reported IAF raids on Syrian missile facilities over the past few days. There wasn't just one raid. There were
at least two.
The first set of strikes (which also remains the least confirmed)
targeted a Hezbollah weapons convoy traveling in the border area on
April 22, hitting at least three trucks and killing at least one
commander. The second set of strikes occurred during the overnight hours
of April 24-25, and are believed to have hit at least three targets in
heavily militarized areas of eastern Qalamoun, north of Damascus, which
host some of the Assad regime’s most loyal and well-equipped units. The
units hit include the 155th Scud missile brigade which has bases near
the Damascus suburb al-Qutayfa, and the 65th Armored Brigade in areas
around the Qalamoun town of Yabroud. In total, claims by Syrian rebels
and foreign media outlets suggest that this set of strikes included at
least three targets throughout the Qalamoun region, killing a number of
Syrian and Hezbollah troops.
...
In the past, these strikes have targeted anti-aircraft missiles,
advanced Yakhont anti-ship missiles, and long range surface-to-surface
missiles, with last night’s attacks likely aimed at targeting Scud B or
Scud D missiles from being transferred to Hezbollah.
That said, these strikes are the first of their kind to occur after
several key local and regional developments, mainly the launching of
Saudi-led intervention against Iranian proxies in Yemen, significant
losses by the Assad regime in northern and southern Syria, and
Hezbollah’s January 2015 announcement that the “rules of the game” with
Israel had changed. Hezbollah chief Hassan Nasrallah made that
announcement after Hezbollah attacked an Israeli military convoy in
broad daylight, from Lebanese territory, in which Israel refrained from
retaliating. Nasrallah claimed that the attack was an ‘eye-for-an-eye’
styled response to an Israeli attack on a Hezbollah-Iranian command
convoy in the Golan Heights on January 18th. Israel’s hesitancy to
respond was hailed by the group as a testament to its regional stature,
and had left many wondering how Hezbollah would respond to future
Israeli attacks against its interests in Syria.
Israel’s alleged airstrikes this week pose a major challenge to the
regional deterrence of the Iranian axis, particularly as an emboldened
Saudi Arabia increasingly hints at intervening in Syria. Unlike past
attacks, Hezbollah and the Assad regime have refrained from making
public threats or even confirming that the strikes took place. On the
one hand, this silence may signal that Nasrallah and Assad seek to
refrain from committing to retaliation against Israel and risking an
escalation. However, it is more likely that they do seek to retaliate
against Israel in some way, shape, or form, reserving the right to claim
responsibility at a time which suites them, and reduces the risk of a
massive Israeli response.
And this may only be the beginning.
Read the whole thing.
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