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Thursday, December 05, 2013

Reports of Iran's potential retaliation are greatly exaggerated

Former Military Intelligence Chief Amos Yadlin says that reports of the potential scope of retaliation by Iran for a strike against its nuclear facilities are exaggerated.
Yadlin, formally head of Military Intelligence, and Avner Golov, a senior INSS researcher, published, together, a systematic overview of Iran’s military capabilities and assessed the likely Iranian strategic calculations when choosing a response.
They concluded that the nightmare scenarios of regional full-scale war is exaggerated and “serves Iran as an excellent deterrence mechanism, since it weakens the credibility of the military option and decreases the chances of the Iranian regime agreeing to a diplomatic solution.”
They said that “the option of an attack on Iran, as well as the threat of it, is an important and central mechanism in the service of diplomacy.”
 Read the whole thing. It's detailed and fascinating.

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