Israel's and the United States' interest in Syria
Prof. Barry Rubin, director of the GLORIA Center and a columnist for the Post, said that the civil war is in a state of deadlock and that there has been little change in the last year in the balance of power between the sides. This, Rubin added, is likely to continue for years unless outside intervention tips the scales.
Israeli interests in light of the Syrian conflict revolve around the following points, according to Rubin. First, by attacking, the US would show it lives up to its commitments; secondly, the impact of action or inaction by the US on Iran¹s nuclear weapon program; thirdly, the identity of who will be running the show in next-door Syria; and fourth, Israel¹s fear that it won¹t be attacked and/or that chemical weapons may be sent to Hezbollah.
A key question that has not been discussed much, says Rubin, is what Iran wants out of this – does it seek total victory in Syria or would it be happy with some kind of partition of the country in order to maintain its access to the Mediterranean? Asked about the latter possibility, Rubin said it might not be agreed upon, but it is possible that it could become a de facto reality, or it might come about if some kind of Western-backed agreement implements a cease-fire based on geographical lines.
In any case, he said, “a US attack is not going to settle the civil war.”Read the whole thing.
Labels: al-Qaeda, Bashar al-Assad, chemical weapons, Free Syrian Army, Nusra Front, Syria, Syrian uprising, US attack on Syria
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:15 AM
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