Powered by WebAds

Sunday, March 04, 2012

The perfect storm: Netanyahu to deliver ultimatum to Obama?

London's Telegraph is reporting that Prime Minister Netanyahu will be arriving in Washington on Monday with an ultimatum: An absolute commitment from President Obama to attack Iran if the Mullahcracy goes beyond Israel's red line (which is less than America's) or Israel will attack Iran itself. And it is not clear that Israel will hold off even if such a commitment is given. You see, the IDF believes that this is the perfect time for an attack.
The threat is not an idle one. According to sources close to the Israeli security establishment, military planners have concluded that never before has the timing for a unilateral military strike against Iran's nuclear facilities been so auspicious.

It is an assessment based on the unforeseen consequences of the Arab Spring, particularly in Syria, which has had the result of significantly weakening Iran's clout in the region.

Israel has always known that there would be an enormous cost in launching an attack on Iran, with the Islamist state able to retaliate through its proxy militant groups Hamas and Hizbollah, based in Gaza and Lebanon respectively, and its ally Syria.

Each is capable of launching massive rocket strikes at Israel's cities, a price that some senior intelligence and military officials said was too much to bear.

But with Syria preoccupied by a near civil war and Hamas in recent weeks choosing to leave Iran's orbit and realign itself with Egypt, Iran's options suddenly look considerably more limited, boosting the case for war.

"Iran's deterrent has been significantly defanged," a source close to Israel's defence chiefs said. "As a result some of those opposed to military action have changed their minds. They sense a golden opportunity to strike Iran at a significantly reduced cost." Not that there would be no cost at all. With the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Hamas has chosen to throw its lot in with its closest ideological ally and forsake Iran and its funding, but it could still be forced to make a token show of force if smaller groups in Gaza that are still backed by Tehran unleash their own rockets.

Likewise, Bashar al-Assad, the Syrian president, could seek to reunite his fractured country with military action against Israel.

Iran would almost certainly launch its long-range ballistic missiles at Israel, while Hizbollah, with an estimated arsenal of 50,000 rockets, would see an opportunity to repair its image in the Middle East, battered as a result of its decision to side with Mr Assad.

Even so, it is not the "doomsday scenario" that some feared, and a growing number in the security establishment are willing to take on the risk if it means preventing the rise of a nuclear power that has spoken repeatedly of Israel's destruction.

"It won't be easy," said a former senior official in Israel's defence ministry. "Rockets will be fired at cities, including Tel Aviv, but at the same time the doomsday scenario that some have talked of is unlikely to happen. I don't think we will have all out war." In itself, the loss of two of Iran's deterrent assets would probably not be enough to prompt Israel to launch unilateral military action.

The real urgency comes from the fact that Israeli intelligence has concluded that it has only between six and nine months before Iran's nuclear facilities are immune from a unilateral military strike.
I have to tell you that I heard this story on the radio and my first thought was that it's an overstatement. I was ready to dismiss it. Having seen it in print, I'm no longer ready to dismiss it. It's entirely possible. In fact, at the very least, Netanyahu ought to get an ironclad commitment from Obama to strike Iran if Israel agrees to stand down.

What could go wrong?

Read the whole thing.

Labels: , , ,


At 1:34 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Hi Carl.
I'm sorry to say this but even an signed, sealed even fingerprinted document by Obama wouldn't make me feel 100% safe or sure that he would keep the commitment.

At 2:37 PM, Blogger Sunlight said...

Dennis Ross briefing the upcoming Netanyahu/Obama meeting.... I just started listening. Audio at link:


At 3:19 PM, Blogger Sunlight said...

Dennis Ross podcast: talking in the same circles. Seriously, it is a Gaslighting operation. Do you remember the IAEA report in 2007 that absolutely froze the Bush people? And nobody countered it, etc. Well, the people who had that report prevail over all other influences in U.S. policy are still at it. And there is Dennis Ross, saying almost contradictory things from one sentence to the next. His key sentence: the U.S. has a longer time to do something than Israel does. So, of course, I'm thinking that these Dems are using Israel as a downhole sensor... when Israel gets blasted, then they'll (possibly?) think that the U.S. needs to do something. And, remember that these old hippy Dems HATE the U.S. military, so they won't make serious moves to keep our deployed troops from being slaughtered in their policy set up. They lack and are deleting the American value of expanding life and minimizing death. VOTE THEM OUT! TOP TO BOTTOM!

In case you think I'm exaggerating, read every line of this case study of what the Obama people have done to our own next door neighbor and our own people (although I no longer believe that the Obama people see us out here as "their own people.")


At 4:26 PM, Blogger HaDaR said...

I'll believe it when I see it: Netanyahu "standing up to someone"?
He is absolutely spineless, and, actually, since he is ALWAYS into pleasing everybody, he is what the Torah considers evil.
The Midrash teaches that Achashevrosh was evil since he tried to please everyone, and asks: "ho can you please the thief and his victim?"
Judaism, The Torah, Israel, are deeply anti-relativistic: we are supposed to take sides, with good against evil...and there's no such a thing as "the lesser of two evils". Evil is evil, and we are commanded to "STAY AWAY FROM EVIL" so that we may be able (so teach our Sages) to "DO GOOD".

At 5:46 PM, Blogger Sunlight said...

HaDaR, well, really, for a marcuse New Left adherent, the Leftism comes first. So you have the "pro-Israel" people like Prof. Dershowitz or Mayor Koch just flummoxed by the contradiction in their advocacy. But it is clear at every turn that the New Leftism wins:


And then there is Israel, with a third of the population (isn't it) from former soviet FSU areas, which have become one of the biggest players in the Obama redistribution/new age shut-off-traditional-energy sources, probably the largest power grab by a U.S. president in our history. The Kennedy and bailout connection: http://biggovernment.com/whall/2011/11/16/robert-kennedy-jr-s-green-company-scored-1-4-billion-taxpayer-bailout/

And the California Kennedy connection http://www.brightsourceenergy.com/images/uploads/media_center_images/IVP_Groundbreaking_-_Governor_and_Salazar_at_Podium.jpg

I would put the '08 support of Obama from the Israeli consulate in the category of "what were they thinking", but to try to thread the needle for '12 will certainly bring about a re-examination of the role of New Left philosophy in Israel... the solar is not moving ahead in a straight technological competition with existing sources. Rather, these Obama people are shutting down power plants, withdrawing drilling access, creating "environmental" requirements that are impossible to do... To move Brightsource forward by deleting their competition by government guns? And when we get brownouts and rationing because the solar and wind can't ramp up to fill the electricity demand of America?

Who in Israel will have the ooomph to tell these people to disengage?

At 5:56 PM, Blogger Nomadic100 said...

Obama is an inveterate liar, pure and simple. His word is worthless and he cannot be trusted.

Consider his words in "Daylight." Now consider his actions.

Netanyahu would be foolish to trust an "ironclad commitment" or anything else Obama says.

At 6:01 PM, Blogger Sunlight said...

BTW AIPAC is going on.... Israel, I think your guys, including Bibi, are bound and pinned by the $$billions in technology funding. Too bad.

Jennifer Rubin ‏ @JRubinBlogger Reply Retweet Favorite · Open
peres gets out the pom poms for obama.. an extended sort of campaign speech...but THIS isn't political football?

At 7:47 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

Huh - Carl?

You know as well as I do that Obama's word is worthless. He is simply playing for time.

Israel cannot put its very survival in the hands of another country. The Jewish State cannot live or die by someone else's whims.

Such a bargain would be suicidal for Israel and Israel cannot give the US a veto over its right to defend itself. Its really that simple!

At 9:12 PM, Blogger Findalis said...

Oh to be a fly on the wall.


Post a Comment

<< Home