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Saturday, October 22, 2011

The canary in the coal mine

Suzanne Fields has got Turkey and Israel right (Hat Tip: Joshua I).
Israel is the canary in the coal mine, the first to breathe the toxic fumes of political change as the Turks seek to win Islamist friends. The government expelled the Israeli ambassador and cut military ties with Israel after the Israelis refused to apologize for the deaths of nine Turkish “activists” on a ship in a Turkish-based flotilla attempting to break the Israeli embargo to Gaza. Israel has expressed “regret for the loss of life,” and a United Nations investigation concluded that the Israeli blockade was legal and the Israeli commandos acted only in the face of “organized and violent resistance.”

The Turkish reaction sounds like a ploy to signal Islamists that Turkey is on their side. “While diplomats and generals too often ascribe tensions between Turkey and the West to a reaction to the Iraq War,” says Michael Rubin of the American Enterprise Institute, “or disappointment with the slow pace of the European Union-accession process, or anger at the death of nine Turks killed in a clash with Israeli forces aboard the blockade-challenging Mavi Marmara, in reality Turkey’s break from the West was the result of a deliberate and steady strategy initiated by Mr. Erdogan upon assuming the reins of government.” Mr. Erdogan emphasized his secularism initially and Western officials, eager to believe him, ignored his record and his party’s ties to Islamist ideology.

“Thank God Almighty,” said Mr. Erdogan in 1994, when he was the mayor of Istanbul. “I am a servant of Shariah.” His favorite newspaper, an anti-Western daily, espouses “neo-Ottomism,” celebrating Turkey’s imperial past in contrast to Attaturk’s modernism. Many in the West hailed his reduction of the army, but he destroyed the check-and-balance role of the military without putting a civilian alternative in its place. The prime minister has locked up without charges secular officers, journalists and opposition leaders.

Western governments presumed that Turkey allowed NATO to build a radar station on its soil to monitor a nuclear threat from Iran, but on a recent trip to Africa, Mr. Erdogan made a point of saying that the real nuclear threat is from Israel. He dallied on imposing sanctions against Syrian repression and now says the United Nations should sanction Israel.

When a young populist politician in 1999, Mr. Erdogan ran afoul of Turkey’s constitutionally mandated secularism and was imprisoned for reciting a poem expressing militant Islam: “Minarets are our bayonets, the domes our helmets, the mosques our barracks, and the believers our army.” Many Turks, who have learned that keeping a low profile is the better part of survival, fear Mr. Erdogan was not merely reciting poesy, but speaking his mind and biding his time.
Read the whole thing.

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