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Friday, April 16, 2010

Jews wake up? Only 42% would vote for Obama in 2012

Could it be that for many of my fellow Jews in the US, yarad ha'asimon (the token dropped) at last? A new survey shows that a plurality of US Jews would consider voting for someone other than Barack Hussein Obama in 2012. In 2008, 78% of American Jews voted for the Democratic candidate (Hat Tip: Mona Charen).
I. A plurality of Jewish voters would consider someone else for President.

According to the 2008 exit polls, Barack Obama won 78% to 21% among Jewish voters. Now, in the second year of Obama’s presidency, only 42% of voters would re-elect him, while the plurality (46%) would consider voting for someone else.

Would you vote to re-elect Barack Obama as President or would you consider voting for someone else?
Re-Elect 42
Someone Else 46
Don’t Know/Refused 12


III. Jewish voters do not support President Obama’s plan to recognize a Palestinian state

The majority of voters (52%) disapproves of the Obama Administration supporting a plan to recognize a Palestinian state within two years. The majority of voters (64%) says that Jerusalem should remain the undivided capital of Israel, while only 13% say that the United States should force Israel to give up parts of Jerusalem to the Palestinians. Six in ten voters (62%) say that the Palestinians would continue their campaign of terror to destroy Israel if they were given a Palestinian state, while only 19% say they would live peacefully with Israel. More than seven in ten voters (73%) say Israel is right to insist upon the Palestinians accepting Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state before there are any negotiations about a Palestinian state.
And for those wondering how the survey was done:
McLaughlin & Associates conducted a national survey of 600 likely Jewish voters on April 7th and 8th, 2010. All interviews were conducted via telephone by professional interviewers. Respondents were randomly selected within predetermined geographic units structured to correlate with actual voter turnout. The survey of 600 likely Jewish voters has an accuracy of +/- 4.0% at a 95% confidence interval.
So what does it all mean? Well, it doesn't necessarily mean that if the elections were held today, 46% would vote for a Republican and 42% for Obama. But given Jewish voting patterns over the last 80 years or so, with Obama the presumptive Democratic nominee, the fact that 46% of Jews would consider voting for someone else would be major progress. Since FDR, the only Democrat not to get a majority of Jewish votes was Jimmy Carter in 1980, and much of the vote that was siphoned off went to Independent John Anderson and not to the eventual winner of that election, Ronald Reagan. As Jennifer Rubin notes:
Given the sentiments about the components of Obama’s approach to Israel, it is still remarkable that a full 50 percent approve of his handling of relations with Israel. This suggests, as did the AJC poll, that Jews still can’t quite break the habit of agreeing with whatever Obama is up to. But this is a sign, a significant one, I think, that the Jews’ views are not fixed and that the policies and tone of the administration do impact Jewish support. The movement in Jewish public opinion may in turn spur Jewish leaders to step forward, as Lauder did. After all, they wouldn’t want to be seen as lagging behind their members, or worse yet, as irrelevant.


At 2:12 PM, Blogger NormanF said...

I don't think we'll see a majority of American Jews support a Republican candidate for President. Still, its remarkable how much Obama's Jewish support has slid since his election. One would like to think things are looking up and that said, its still a long way to 2012.



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