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Monday, October 26, 2009

Hanson: 50-50 Israel attacks Iran in the next 6 months

It's getting closer.

Forbes interviews Victor Davis Hanson and former CIA field officer Robert Baer. They agree on five observations regarding Iran. Here are two of them.
The fourth observation: Israel cannot tolerate a nuclear Iran.

"The Israelis have some bunker busters," Baer said. "They could take out some sites underground. They could set the Iranian nuclear program back years." Would the Israelis be willing to accept the risks a military strike would entail? "This is just 65 years after the Holocaust," Hanson said. "My God, we are talking about 6 million people who were executed while the world watched, and now we have a person [Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, president of Iran] who is promising to do it again."

What is the probability that Israel will strike Iran within the next six months?

"Forty-nine percent," said Baer.

"I would say 50-50," Hanson replied.

The final observation: Iran would retaliate.

"Iran's deterrent doctrine is to strike back everywhere it can," Baer explained. "We should expect the worst." Iran would attack American supply lines in Iraq and command Hezbollah to start a civil war in Lebanon. It would fire surface-to-surface missiles at every oil facility within range, wreaking devastation in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states while removing millions of barrels of oil a day from the world markets. The economy of the entire globe would suffer a paroxysm. The Middle East could descend into chaos. The U.S. would experience the worst crisis in decades.
Read the whole thing. We are approaching the Armageddon scenario. Like it or not.


At 1:36 AM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I don't understand why Israel couldn't completely decimate Iran, and leave them without any capacity to retaliate. Don't they have the capabilities?


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