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Saturday, December 20, 2008

Most effective Arab force evah....

Shavua tov, a good week to everyone.

This ought to surprise no one. A study issued by the Strategic Studies Institute of the United States Army War College indicates that Hezbullah's fight against Israel in the 2006 Second Lebanon War was the most effective ever by an Arab army (110-page pdf link).
In fact, Hezbollah inflicted more Israeli casualties per Arab fighter in 2006 than did any of Israel’s state opponents in the 1956, 1967, 1973, or 1982 Arab-Israeli interstate wars. Hezbollah’s skills in conventional warfighting were clearly imperfect in 2006—but they were also well within the observed bounds of other state military actors in the Middle East and elsewhere, and significantly superior to many such states.

In all, then, Hezbollah’s behavior in 2006 conformed to neither an ideal model of “guerrilla” warfare nor one of “conventional” warfighting, but its approach and proficiency nonetheless place it well within a band that has characterized many past state militaries in interstate conflicts.

This, however, poses serious challenges for U.S. policymakers in light of the tension between the implications of the 2006 Lebanon campaign and the demands of Iraq and Afghanistan.


What Hezbollah in 2006 shows is that in defense planning, as in economics, there is no such thing as a free lunch or an unambiguous, risk-free policy. The real world is one of tradeoffs, and all options have downsides—even the options that look most forward-thinking.
I wonder if Israeli policymakers have gotten the idea yet.


At 7:58 PM, Blogger Unknown said...

Looking at the article itself, there is one very interesting point...

"Hezbollah is often described as having used
civilians as shields in 2006, and, in fact, they made
extensive use of civilian homes as direct fire combat
positions and to conceal launchers for rocket fire into
Israel. Yet the villages Hezbollah used to anchor its
defensive system in southern Lebanon were largely
evacuated by the time Israeli ground forces crossed the
border on July 18"

This is an unbelievably important point for 3 reasons.

1. The claim that 1,000 Lebanese casualties were civilian, is now officially shown as crap. Those killed were obviously mainly and pretty much only Hizb'allah.

To say that the 2nd Lebanon war wasn't a mockery would be a lie, but wiping out 10% of Hizb'allahs armed forces with a disorganized IDF with no upper level management does show that even 'unprepared' ground troops were effective. Had they been better directed based on real military goals and not what Aliza had ordered Ehud to do then things I imagine would have been very different.

2. The incompetence of this current Israeli gov't, which hopefully (and I mean I REALLY HOPE) that it'll be tossed out like the garbage it is, was aware that these villages bombarding Northern Israel were empty. The fact that the IAF was not ordered IMMEDIATELY to completely destroy every building in those villages is a level of incompetence that deserves a new term in of self, which should be called "Olmerting something" (or l'olmert ma'sheo).

The fact that the gov't sent soldiers into meat grinders when the IAF could have used 'disproportionate force' while ground troops should have gone tunnel hunting, is simply a travesty of the greatest measure.

3. Finally it shows really what level of collusion that the MSM did with Hizb'allah. The fact that the MSM immediately stated and keeps stating these casualties as civilians shows the amount of pure hatred they have of Israel. Anything and everything is used to demonize Israel, no matter whether it is the truth or not. Whats important is sensationalism, what plot can be sold, "Jews Bad, Arabs Good".

The fact is that the Gov't will have to learn to important lessons here:

1. You can't get a steak without killing the cow! Either you are at war or you are not, there is not quasi-BS. Sadly though the people of the Negev seem to suffering from the same mistakes as just two years ago.

2. Either make a strong media campaign to fight vicious lies or have thick skin and just fight with your heart and let everything be sorted out after the war in the media's eyes.

Feb 10th is truly Judgment. All I ask is for mercy, luck, and maybe some common sense when people go to the ballots....

At 10:02 AM, Blogger NormanF said...

Who says they have? The Israeli army has gotten proficient at kicking Jews out of their homes even as it remains at loss as how to deal with Arab terror. Its really a question of priorities. To Israel's leftist elites, the enemy are the Jews.


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