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Thursday, December 11, 2008

Iran has passed the point of no return?

Haaretz is reporting that the incoming administration of Barack (now it's okay to say his middle name) Hussein Obama wants to offer Israel a 'nuclear umbrella' to protect it against Iran (Hat Tip: Hot Air).
U.S. President-elect Barack Obama's administration will offer Israel a "nuclear umbrella" against the threat of a nuclear attack by Iran, a well-placed American source said earlier this week. The source, who is close to the new administration, said the U.S. will declare that an attack on Israel by Tehran would result in a devastating U.S. nuclear response against Iran.


According to the same source, the nuclear guarantee would be backed by a new and improved Israeli anti-ballistic missile system. The Bush administration took the first step by deploying an early-warning radar system in the Negev, which hones the ability to detect Iranian ballistic missiles.
The idea of a nuclear umbrella like this protecting Israel is absurd for two reasons. First, because it presumes an Iranian first strike. Second, because Ahamdinejad has said that he is willing to sacrifice half his people to destroy Israel. This is like Hitler all over again - when are people going to listen to what the man is saying? As a deterrent, this 'nuclear umbrella' is cream of wheat. It's totally ineffective. And it's not just me saying so: It's American and Israeli experts:
Granting Israel a nuclear guarantee essentially suggests the U.S. is willing to come to terms with a nuclear Iran. For its part, Israel opposes any such development and similar opposition was voiced by officials in the outgoing Bush administration.

"What is the significance of such guarantee when it comes from those who hesitated to deal with a non-nuclear Iran?" asked a senior Israeli security source. "What kind of credibility would this [guarantee have] when Iran is nuclear-capable?"

The same source noted that the fact that there is talk about the possibility of a nuclear Iran undermines efforts to prevent Tehran from acquiring such arms.

A senior Bush administration source said that the proposal for an American nuclear umbrella for Israel was ridiculous and lacked credibility. "Who will convince the citizen in Kansas that the U.S. needs to get mixed up in a nuclear war because Haifa was bombed? And what is the point of an American response, after Israel's cities are destroyed in an Iranian nuclear strike?"
But it gets worse. The current military intelligence assessment (and it doesn't say whose military intelligence, but I will bet that it's Israel's) is that Iran has already passed the 'point of no return.'
The current debate is taking place in light of the Military Intelligence assessment that Iran has passed beyond the point of no return, and has mastered the technology of uranium enrichment. The decision to proceed toward the development of nuclear arms is now purely a matter for Iran's leaders to decide. Intelligence assessments, however, suggest that the Iranians are trying to first accumulate larger quantities of fissile material, and this offers a window of opportunity for a last-ditch diplomatic effort to prevent an Iranian bomb.
Why not another a 'diplomatic' effort? After all, they've been so successful up to this point. Grrr....


At 8:51 PM, Blogger 1Trader said...

A massive diplomatic effort would be very effective, assuming it was delivered by multiple waves of F-15s.

Short of an effective US operation, the only reasonable option left to Israel is a preemptive nuclear strike.


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