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Friday, November 07, 2008

In the 'next war' Israel will go after Lebanese infrastructure

It sounds like Israel's assessments of the situation in Lebanon may be catching up with reality.
In the Second Lebanon War, the IAF did target some of Lebanon's infrastructure but was asked to stop by the US and others.

According to assessments in Israel, Hizbullah's influence over Lebanese politics is expected to grow, and it is set to gain at least two more cabinet posts in elections next spring - likely the Interior Ministry and, as a remote possibility, the defense portfolio.

Hizbullah already has a veto on cabinet decisions. There are no major diplomatic and security decisions taken by Lebanon that are not informed by or initiated by Hizbullah, and the Shi'ite group has been given the official title of Liberator of the Shaba Farms (Mount Dov) and the (seven) Shi'ite villages in the Galilee.

Hizbullah is four times stronger militarily today than it was at the end of the last Lebanon war. In August 2006 Hizbullah had 14,000 rockets, with Hadera being the southernmost city within their range. Two years after the war, Hizbullah has some 40,000 rockets and Dimona (with its nuclear reactor), Yeroham and Arad, all in the Negev, are at risk, the Post has learned.

Hizbullah has a long-term plan to fortify positions and create strategic depth north of the Litani River, inside Shi'ite villages south of the Litani, and in the Bekaa Valley, its traditional stronghold.

Should the next Lebanese defense minister be a member of Hizbullah or from a Hizbullah-affiliated party, Israel could argue that there is no difference between the Lebanese army and Hizbullah, and act accordingly, according to assessments in Jerusalem.
I said they should have done that two years ago.


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