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Monday, December 10, 2007

The CIA was not hoodwinked by Iran

I'm sure that many of you have already seen the headline in today's London Daily Telegraph that claims that the CIA was fooled by Iran into issuing the National Intelligence Estimate last week.
British spy chiefs have grave doubts that Iran has mothballed its nuclear weapons programme, as a US intelligence report claimed last week, and believe the CIA has been hoodwinked by Teheran.

The timing of the CIA report has also provoked fury in the British Government, where officials believe it has undermined efforts to impose tough new sanctions on Iran and made an Israeli attack on its nuclear facilities more likely.

The security services in London want concrete evidence to allay concerns that the Islamic state has fed disinformation to the CIA.

The report used new evidence - including human sources, wireless intercepts and evidence from an Iranian defector - to conclude that Teheran suspended the bomb-making side of its nuclear programme in 2003. But British intelligence is concerned that US spy chiefs were so determined to avoid giving President Bush a reason to go to war - as their reports on Saddam Hussein's weapons programmes did in Iraq - that they got it wrong this time.

A senior British official delivered a withering assessment of US intelligence-gathering abilities in the Middle East and revealed that British spies shared the concerns of Israeli defence chiefs that Iran was still pursuing nuclear weapons.

The source said British analysts believed that Iranian nuclear staff, knowing their phones were tapped, deliberately gave misinformation. "We are sceptical. We want to know what the basis of it is, where did it come from? Was it on the basis of the defector? Was it on the basis of the intercept material? They say things on the phone because they know we are up on the phones. They say black is white. They will say anything to throw us off.

"It's not as if the American intelligence agencies are regarded as brilliant performers in that region. They got badly burned over Iraq."
But Israel Insider has a much more sinister - and unfortunately plausible - explanation (Hat Tip: Kranky):
Bruce Reidel, who spent 25 years on the Middle East desks at the CIA and the National Security Council, lamented: "By going public they have embarrassed our friends, particularly the British and the Israelis. They have given our foes insights into our most secret intelligence and taken most of the options off the table."

But other analysts are saying that, far from being hoodwinked, the Bush Administration greenlighted the faulty report because it served the interests of a rapprochement with the Iranians, reportedly brokered by Saudi Arabia, whose monarch Abdullah was seen at last week's GCC conference holding hands with Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad.

The reported deal involved the United States swearing off the military option, reining in Israel, and allowing a Syrian-backed regime to take control of Lebanon in exchange for the Iranians reducing their attacks in Iraq and not destabilizing Lebanon altogether.

In this scenario, Annapolis was a smokescreen for the real deal which, far from isolating Iran, was intended to open relations with the Iranians and distance the United States from its traditional support for and special relationship with Israel. Part of the deal is also compelling Israel not to respond militarily to continuing rocket attacks from Gaza, thus solidifying Hamas rule there. Hamas, in turn, will consider a ceasefire on rocket attacks on Israel, allowing it to strengthen its arsenal and continue its rampant importation of weaponry in preparation for an armed conflict with Israel later.
Do I need to add anything?


At 8:16 PM, Blogger Bret said...

Yes. You should add that you've seen the light and are moving back to Boston with your family before it's too late.

At 10:25 PM, Blogger Carl in Jerusalem said...


Sorry, but no.

At 11:21 PM, Blogger ziontruth said...


The Islamonazis are in Boston as well. In fact, in almost every country on this earth. There is nowhere to run away to. Might as well stay in the one and only land that really belongs to us Jews.

God bless.

At 11:48 PM, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I think this is just more proof that Israel must go it alone, not that we wouldnt have friends, but we must realize only Hashem is our strength. The Americans wont save us, just as the Egyptians couldnt save us during the first Beit HaMikdash. To paraphrase the Navi, America is a broken reed, she offers no support and pricks the hand of those who think to lean upon her.

At 5:42 AM, Blogger Dave in Pa. said...

Starting with "But other analysts are saying that..." IMO, that pseudo-analysis by those other analysts is about the most rampant paranoia I've ever read.

Israel has one true friend, who has stood by her through thick and thin, and that's America. If anyone has any specific evidence that the Bush Administration is willing to backstab Israel as outlined in this long-on-speculation-short-on-facts "analysis", let's see it!

Otherwise, I'll give this insult to the United States the same non-credibility I do to 9/11 Truthers.

At 6:50 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

"If anyone has any specific evidence that the Bush Administration is willing to backstab Israel"

Annapolis? Does that ring a bell?

What about training the "Palis" security forces ... who immediately used said training, and good ole US of A supplied ammunition and weapons to shoot at Israelis? Kill a few of them.

What about the UN resolution after Annapolis ... you know , the one where they stabbed Israel in the back?

My country is playing realpolitik and Israelis are going to suffer for it ... as will we. I am disgusted that my hard earned tax dollars are finding their way into Palis hands through my government. I am heartbroken that my government has not become serious about foreign oil replacement with better technologies.

There are no troofers here . There are actions, and there are words. I ignore the words, and look only at the actions. The words are that the US is best buddies with Israel. The actions are that we are arming Israels enemies, we are demanding Israel not retailiate for attacks against her, demanding she not build a wall while we build a wall. We pressure Israel into making concessions while the Palis "partner" is not held to any deliverables. We insist all are equal, and we disgrace the Israelis by forcing them to come in to halls by different entrances, sit segregated, and don't insist that all listen delagates to each other.

There are no conspiracy theorists here. There are observers looking on in shock and disgust at real actions.

This is how we treat our friends.

At 7:51 AM, Blogger Carl in Jerusalem said...


Great answer. I would have added one thing. The proof is that we are now two weeks after Annapolis, the Kassams are continuing to fall daily on the western Negev and there is still no IDF operation. Part of the deal the US cut with the Saudis.

'Nuff said.

At 11:08 AM, Blogger Unknown said...

Dave, sorry, you are really too naive. I just finished reading Michal B. Oren's "Six Days of War" and it was obvious then as it is now that US interests and Israel's interests at best overlap and that the US puts its own perceived interests first as any country would.

If the perceived interest to which the Bush administration attaches most importance right now is to have a success story in Iraq by election times then such deals make a lot of sense.

Israel has to accept once more that she stands alone.

At 8:41 PM, Blogger ziontruth said...

Hi KL!

The historical record also bears out, that whenever the USA gives aid to Israel in any way, Israel later has to pay a price for it, usually a heavy one, especially from the Jewish point of view.

For asking the US to help us with Iran, the present administration is now dragging us to yet more fruitless concessions toward the Pretendestinians, in order to save face with the Arab states. Back in the days of the first Bush, James Baker (may he go to hell soon, amen) used the USA's monetary aid to Israel as blackmail, to be withheld unless building in Judea, Samaria and Gaza was stopped. The US is far too much run by "realists", i.e. advocates of negotiations and concessions. Nearly the only ones in the US who have an inkling of our situation are those who live near the border with Mexico. The idea that the demographic threat to national sovereignty needs to be countered by decisive action is both foreign and racist-sounding to most of them.

The day Israel breaks free of the US will be like the day a youth leaves the old man's home for an independent life: shocking at first, and full of anguish at having to get used to the lack of former conveniences, but afterward exhilarating in the feeling of freedom. Once we are no longer tied to non-Jewish interests, we will be free: free to drive out all the Muslims away from the entire Land of Israel, and thus real peace will finally come. May that day come soon, amen!

Ah, to post such Hasmonean thoughts on Hanukkah...

HaShem bless you.


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