Arabs pushing to single out Israeli nukes, US not pleased
It's been a wild day and after this I am going back to work....
The Arab countries are pushing for an IAEA resolution demanding that Israel sign the nuclear non-proliferation treaty (and thereby expose whether we have had nuclear weapons for the last 50 years), and the United States is not pleased about it.
Frustrated over the postponement of an international conference on
ridding the region of atomic arms, Arab states have proposed a
resolution at a UN nuclear agency meeting expressing concern about
"Israeli nuclear capabilities".
The non-binding text submitted for the first time since 2010 to this
week's member meeting of the International Atomic Energy Agency calls on
Israel to join a global anti-nuclear weapons pact and place its atomic
facilities under IAEA monitoring.
Israel is widely believed to
possess the Middle East's only nuclear arsenal, drawing frequent Arab
and Iranian condemnation. It has never acknowledged having atomic
weapons.
US and Israeli officials - who see Iran's atomic activity
as the main proliferation threat - have said a nuclear arms-free zone
in the Middle East could not be a reality until there was broad
Arab-Israeli peace and Iran curbed its program.
Washington is
committed to working toward a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass
destruction (WMD) and their delivery systems, the US envoy to the IAEA
said.
But the Arab resolution "does not advance our shared goal of
progress toward a WMD-free zone in the Middle East," Ambassador Joseph
Macmanus said in a comment emailed to Reuters.
"Instead, it undermines efforts at constructive dialogue toward that common objective," Macmanus added.
Am I the only one who suspects that the Obama administration is secretly pleased about this resolution, but doesn't feel it can say so?
Assad attacks his countrymen with chemical weapons
In an incredibly brazen attack (which the Syrian government is now denying), troops loyal to Bashar al-Assad shot a number of nerve gas-tipped missiles this morning at civilians in a suburb of Damascus. The reason why I call the attack Brazen? UN chemical weapons inspectors are currently in Syria....
15 missiles with nerve gas targeted Juber, Zamalka Ein Tarma, Duma and Mouadamiya #Damascus at 3:45 am led to 570 deaths - Sham Network
— Zaid Benjamin (@zaidbenjamin) August 21, 2013
Reuters was not able to verify the accounts independently and they were
denied by Syrian state television, which said they were disseminated
deliberately to distract a team of United Nations chemical weapons
experts which arrived three days ago.
The UN team is in Syria investigating allegations that both rebels
and army forces used poison gas in the past, one of the main disputes in
international diplomacy over Syria.
Activists said rockets with chemical agents hit the Damascus suburbs of Ain Tarma, Zamalka and Jobar before dawn.
A
nurse at Douma Emergency Collection facility, Bayan Baker, said the
death toll, as collated from medical centers in the suburbs east of
Damascus, was 213.
"Many of the casualties are women and children. They arrived with
their pupil dilated, cold limbs and foam in their mouths. The doctors
say these are typical symptoms of nerve gas victims," the nurse said.
Extensive
amateur video and photographs purporting to show victims appeared on
the Internet.
A video purportedly shot in the Kafr Batna neighborhood
showed a room filled with more than 90 bodies, many of them children and
a few women and elderly men. Most of the bodies appeared ashen or pale
but with no visible injuries. About a dozen were wrapped in blankets.
What the west doesn't get is that this sort of behavior isn't shocking coming from the Arab world... That's how they fight.
Obama loses another excuse for doing nothing about Syria and Israel hits Syrian WMD's
One of the excuses for the Obama administration's inaction on Syria, which we have been hearing for months now, is that Syria's air defenses prevent things like imposition of a no-fly zone. Israel's two alleged raids on Syrian territory last weekend put the lie to that claim. And by the way, some of the targets hit in Sunday's raid were actually chemical and biological weapons plants.
Around Damascus the warplanes staged a series of raids in
the early hours of Sunday including on President Bashar
al-Assad's air defences, opposition and rebel sources said. But
none had more devastating results than at Hameh, a high-walled
site linked to his chemical and biological weapons programme.
"Families ran to basements and stayed there," said one
witness of the attack on Hameh that lit up the night sky and
shook the ground kilometres (miles) away. "We heard ambulances.
There were very few workers at the compound at that time but an
attack of this scale must have killed a lot of soldiers among
the guards and patrols."
...
The witness said windows were blown out in workers' flats
several hundred metres (yards) from Hameh's perimeter, even
though the centre of the blasts was further away on the huge
site, which is surrounded by air defences.
Opposition sources said the warplanes also hit facilities
manned by Assad's Republican Guards on Mount Qasioun, which
overlooks central Damascus, and the nearby Barada River basin.
The area is believed to be a supply route to Hezbollah,
according to residents, activists and opposition military
sources.
...
One rebel commander said Assad's forces have been fortifying
their positions on Qasioun since the uprising began in March
2011. "The Israelis still managed to get to the weapons stores.
The secondary explosions indicate that they were right on
target," he said, adding that Syrian air defences, already
weakened by the civil war "could not do anything".
Other opposition sources also said the targets included air
defences comprising Russian-made surface to air missiles and
heavy anti-aircraft guns, deployed on Qasioun and overlooking
the rebellious Damascus district of Barzeh.
"The destruction appeared to be massive. We have heard that
the army has asked rank and file personnel based in Qasioun and
those on leave to stay away. The military usually does this sort
of thing when there is a big mess to sort out," said one
activist in Damascus, who did not want to be named.
...
Opposition sources familiar with the Hameh site said a large
section of the compound housing missile systems appeared to have
been hit. Mobile missile launchers, part of a Russian-supplied
SA-17 air defence system deployed elsewhere on Qasioun, also
appear to have been destroyed, they said
Western intelligence agencies suspect work on chemical
weapons has been conducted at Hameh. Assad's government and the
rebels have accused each other of carrying out three chemical
weapons attacks, one near Aleppo and another near Damascus in
March, and another near Homs in December.
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, an opposition
monitoring group based in Britain, said at least 42 Syrian
soldiers were killed and 100 others are missing.
Other opposition sources put the death toll at 300 soldiers,
mostly belonging to the Republican Guards, an elite unit that
forms the last line of defence for Damascus and comprises mainly
members of Assad's Alawite sect, an offshoot of Shi'ite Islam
that has controlled Syria since the 1960s.
A warm-up for Iran?
Imagine if Syria had nuclear weapons now.... Yes. Israel took care of those too.
It's amazing how the IDF consistently shows that the Obama administration really has no interest in acting. If the IDF can do this much damage, what could the Americans do?
The problem with setting red lines is that you have be willing to back it up when someone crosses one, or all your red lines become meaningless. President Obama has said countless times that the use of chemical weapons by the Assad regime in Syria would be a red line that cause the United States to step in. Obama likely believed (naively) that could not or would not happen. Now, it apparently has.
The report that might have finally forced the Obama administration to admit that chemical weapons are being used was this report, which claims that American spies in Syria claim that the blood of Syrians shows sarin, a dangerous nerve agent (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).
The U.S. intelligence community has uncovered strong evidence that
chemical weapons have been used in Syria. Several blood samples, taken
from multiple people, have tested positive for the nerve agent sarin, an
American intelligence source tells Danger Room. President Obama has
long said that the use of such a weapon by the Assad regime would cross a
“red line.” So now the question becomes: What will the White House do
in response?
In March, the Assad regime was accused of using chemical weapons during an attack on the city of Aleppo. The
blood samples are taken by Syrian opposition groups from alleged
victims of that strike. But American analysts can’t be entirely
sure where exactly the blood came from, when the precisely exposure took
place.
“This is more than one organization representing that they have more
than one sample from more than one attack,” the source tells Danger
Room. “But we can’t confirm anything because no is really sure what’s
going on in country.”
“It would be very, very difficult for the opposition to fake this.
Not only would they need the wherewithal to steal it or brew it up
themselves. Then they’d need volunteers who would notionally agree to a
possibly lethal exposure,” the source adds.
Most of the video below seems to assume that the weapons were fired by the opposition groups. But that's unlikely since as far as we know they don't control any chemical weapons. It's far more likely that the weapons were fired by the Assad regime's army. The video is from the Aleppo attack in March.
Let's go to the videotape.
On Thursday morning, the White House admitted in a letter to Senators Carl Levin (D-Mi) and John McCain (R-Az) that the sarin was discovered. Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel admitted as much as well.
"This
morning the White House delivered a letter to several members of
Congress on the topic of chemical weapons use in Syria. The letter ...
states that the US intelligence community assesses with some degree of
varying confidence that the Syrian regime has used chemical weapons on a
small scale in Syria," Hagel told reporters traveling with him. He said
it was sarin gas.
Note that Hagel said 'small scale.' That is part of the opening the White House seems to be using to minimize the significance of the discovery.
However, the White House stated that US Intelligence assessments on chemical weapons are not enough.
"Given
the stakes involved, and what we have learned from our own recent
experiences, intelligence assessments alone are not sufficient - only
credible and corroborated facts that provide us with some degree of
certainty will guide our decision-making," Miguel Rodriguez, White House
director of the office of legislative affairs, said in a letter to
lawmakers. The White House added that the US is prepared for all
contingencies on Syria to respond to any confirmed use of chemical
weapons.
It’s not at all clear how the Obama administration will now respond.
While everyone from the President on down has warned the Assad regime
not to use chemical arms, the White House has been extremely careful not
to “pin the administration down on any particular course of action
while at the same time not giving Assad any comfort,” Steven Simon, who
served as the National Security Council’s director for the Mideast until
December, tells Danger Room. “There’s no automaticity to any response.”
That was underscored by a White House official briefing reporters on
background this afternoon. The official, who would not agree to be
quoted by name, said that the next step for the administration would be
“further investigation,” including by the United Nations, to confirm
that chemical weapons were used and used deliberately by the Assad
regime — a prerequisite for any unspecified additional response. “We’re
already working with the Syrian opposition who can helps us in
corroborating reports and gathering evidence,” the official said, as
well as allies like Britain.
The White House official said it would be premature to declare that
Obama’s red line has been crossed. “It’s precisely because we take the
red line seriously that we feel like there needs to be clear, factual
evidentiary bases for our decisions,” the official said. “Given our own
history with intelligence assessments, including intelligence
assessments related to weapons of mass destruction” — a reference to the
infamous incorrect assertions that Saddam Hussein possessed stockpiles
of chemical and biological weapons before the Iraq invasion — “it’s very
important that we are able to establish this with certainty.”
Even the Democrats in Congress aren't buying that one.
Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-Calif.), the chairwoman of the Senate Select
Committee on Intelligence, issued a statement saying “It is clear that
‘red lines’ have been crossed and action must be taken to prevent larger
scale use.” Feinstein appeared to mean military action to remove Assad
from power: “I urge the United Nations Security Council — including
Russia — to finally take strong and meaningful action to end this crisis
in Syria.”
Her House counterpart, Rep. Mike Rogers (R-Mich.), did not go that
far. “President Obama correctly said that Syria’s use of chemical
weapons would be a red line for the United States,” Rogers said in his
own statement this afternoon. “Now that we have confirmed their use, the
question is what is our plan for transition to a post-Assad Syria? I
have laid out several steps, short of boots on the ground. The world is
waiting for American leadership.”
Something tells me that the world is going to be waiting for a long time.
But if your name is Netanyahu tonight and you're Prime Minister of Israel, you have to pretend that instead of talking about Syrian chemical weapons (which are also a threat to us, albeit possibly a less immediate one), this story was about an Iranian nuclear weapon. If we wait for Obama to act, we are likely to come across similar dithering with Obama saying there's not enough evidence that Iran has gone nuclear until it is too late. The difference between the two situations is that in the case of Iran there is another party - Israel - that is willing to act without the United States.
Syrian television has shown video of the results of the alleged Israeli air strike (yes, they're still calling it that) at a chemical weapons plant in Jamarya just outside of Damascus.
Let's go to the videotape.
My Arabic is non-existent - the only words I understood were 'Israeli' and 'shahid.' JPost adds.
The Jamraya research center is
in the town of Jamraya, 8 miles (13 km) from the border with Lebanon, surrounded
by heavily militarized areas including several army bases and artillery sites on
the Qasioun mountain range, which overlooks Damascus proper 3 miles (5 km) to
the east.
Details of Wednesday's strike remain sketchy and, in parts,
contradictory. Syria said Israeli warplanes, flying low to avoid detection by
radar, crossed into its airspace from Lebanon and struck the Jamraya military
site.
But diplomats, Syrian rebels and regional security sources said the
Israeli planes hit a weapons convoy heading from Syria to Lebanon, apparently
destined for President Bashar al-Assad's ally Hezbollah, and the rebels said
they - not Israel - hit Jamraya with mortars.
A statement from the joint
military council of the rebel Free Syrian Army described Jamraya as "one of the
biggest shabbiha strongholds", where it said Iranian, Russian and Hezbollah
members were helping develop chemical and other weapons including 'barrel bombs'
used by Assad's air force.
Israel strikes sites in Syria, Turkey complains about lack of reaction
Shavua tov, a good week to everyone.
Time Magazine reports that Israel carried out both attacks that were attributed to it last week - both the 'military research facility' outside Damascus (which apparently stored chemical weapons) and the weapons convoy that was headed to Hezbullah in Lebanon. And there were two more attacks that have not yet been publicly reported.
A Western intelligence official indicated to TIME that at least one
to two additional targets were hit the same night, without offering
details. Officials also said that Israel had a “green light” from
Washington to launch yet more such strikes.
Hizballah is not Israel’s only concern – or perhaps even the most
worrying. Details of the Israeli strikes make clear the risk posed by
fundamentalist militants sprinkled among the variegated rebel forces
fighting to depose Assad. The jihadists are overwhelmingly home-grown
Sunni militants but also include foreigners drawn to the fight from
across the Muslim world. Loosely organized into several fighting groups,
some fighters embrace the almost nihilist ideology associated with
al-Qaeda. But jihadist groups are less vulnerable to the same levers
that have proved effective against Syria and other states – such as
threats to its territory — or even the frank interests of an
organization like Hizballah, which as a political party plays a major
role in Lebanon’s government.
“If we succeeded all these years to deter the Syrians and all the
other surrounding countries that possess weapons of mass destruction
[from making] use of it, it’s because we knew how to deliver the
message, that the price would be very high,” Amnon Sofrin, a retired
brigadier and former senior Mossad official, told reporters this week.
“What kind of threat can you put in the face of a terror organization?”
In other words, it may be easier to attack the problem from the other
side — simply destroy the weapons you’re afraid they’ll get their hands
on. Among the buildings leveled at the military complex at Jamarya,
outside Damascus, were warehouses stocked with equipment necessary for
the deployment of chemical and biological weapons, relatively
complicated systems typically manned by specially trained forces. The
lab facilities dedicated to biological warfare were of special concern,
given both the damage that can be done by even small amounts of
biological agents, and the interest expressed in such weapons by Osama
bin Laden’s successor, Ayman al-Zawahiri. No specific armed force was
identified as threatening the compound. Intelligence officials said the
concern was unconventional weapons “dripping” into control of extremists
in the relative chaos of the rebel side.
One Western intelligence official told TIME the U.S. military
was poised to carry out similar airstrikes around Aleppo if rebels
threaten to take sites associated with weapons of mass destruction in
that region.
Sofrin called that logical. “The world should be worried about the
possibility that organizations would possess chemical weapons, because
we are not the only target in the Middle East,” he told foreign
reporters in Jerusalem on Wednesday. “Let’s go back to 1983, the attack
in Beirut on the barracks of the U.S. marines. 241 people killed on
Lebanese soil, because they were Americans, strangers.”
And the US isn't the only one who is standing aside and at least not condemning Israel for doing the West's dirty work.
“I’m not going to give any condemnation of Israel or rush into any
criticism,” British foreign secretary William Hauge told the BBC on
Thursday. “There may be many things about it that we don’t know, or the
Arab League or Russia don’t know.”
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu
criticized the Israeli raid in Syria this week, severely questioning
Damascus' inaction on the aggression. "Why didn't [Bashar] al-Assad even
throw a pebble when Israeli jets were flying over his palace and
playing with the dignity of his country?" Davutoğlu told reporters on
his way to Serbian capital Belgrade for a bilateral visit.
"Why
didn't the Syrian Army, which has been attacking its own innocent
people for 22 months now from the air with jets and by land with tanks
and artillery fire, respond to Israel's operation? Why can't al-Assad,
who gave order to fire SCUD missiles at Aleppo, do anything against
Israel?" Davutoğlu said.
Davutoğlu said they did not know the precise
circumstances of the raid but added that Turkey would not stay
unresponsive to an Israeli attack against any Muslim country.
Davutoğlu went on to claim that Assad is conspiring with Israel. Yeah.... Right....
Assad isn't attacking Israel because Israel is not threatening his position in power. The rebels are.
The IDF Home Front Command is preparing all hospitals in Israel for a range of
security threats, including large-scale missile attacks and chemical attacks, a
senior military source told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.
The
preparations have been planned three years in advance, and bear no relation to
current events or recent threat assessments. Exercises include training hospital
staff to deal with conventional missile attacks, mass-casualty incidents and
“mega-mass casualty incidents,” – involving 1,000 or more injuries.
“We
train a lot for chemical weapons,” a Home Front Command source said. “This is
our business, and only ours. There is no room for error.”
The drills form
the only basis for dealing with a chemical weapon attack, the source stressed,
“since we have no experience with this.”
...
The Home Front Command has also created underground
areas in major hospitals such as Ichilov in Tel Aviv and Rambam in Haifa, so
intensive care and pregnancy wards can be transferred there in the case of
missile attacks.
During Operation Pillar of Defense, the Home Front
Command sent crews to four hospitals to create daycare centers for the children
of doctors and nurses, to allow them to focus on treating
patients.
According to Home Front Command evaluations, even in the event
of wide-scale rocket and missile attacks, a low casualty rate can be
expected.
The source noted that the 11,000 rockets fired from Gaza
between 2000 and November 2012 (before the Gaza conflict) resulted in 22
casualties.
“That’s a casualty rate of one per 500 projectiles,” he
said.
“The more than 4,000 projectiles fired by Hezbollah during the
Second Lebanon War of 2006 resulted in 44 casualties in Israel,” he added. “In
the 1991 Gulf War, [then-Iraqi leader] Saddam Hussein fired 40 Scud B missiles
at central Israel. There was one casualty, from a door blown off a safe room.
Some people are fear mongering. The numbers should be studied.”
What could go wrong?
By the way, I've been in the tunnels at Ichilov, and they are really neat. They have a whole set of operating rooms down there.
Here's video of Prime Minister Netanyahu welcoming Senator-elect Ted Cruz (R-Tx) on his first trip to Israel. Notice what Cruz says about Israel being in the front lines protecting the US against Syrian and Iranian weapons of mass destruction (toward the end of the video).
I can only hope that this means that we have solved the shortage (somehow I doubt it), but Paula Stern reports that she got gas masks in Jerusalem.
This is significant because there really has been no distribution in and around Jerusalem until now (although we had our gas masks collected a number of years ago). The only reason we have gas masks already is that Mrs. Carl works in the center of the country and got them there.
This comment from Paula is a great summary of what's so bizarre about this situation:
This was more than I had hoped for, "okay," I responded as he turned to retrieve the biggest box of all. I don't know whether it is the tent version for an infant or the one for a toddler. "What's the baby's name?" the man asked.
Elie told it to him and the man wrote my grandson's name on a gas mask. I called Amira as soon as I was clear of the area and told her. She was happy. Can you understand the concept that a young mother was happy that her son now had a gas mask? When you can, you'll understand what it is to be Israeli - at least in part.
What very few people know is that European companies and scientists gave Iran, Syria, Libya and Iraq the material to attempt to kill the Jews, again.
In 1992 a 100-page report, prepared by the Paris-based Middle East Defence News, listed about 300 European firms which the centre said it believed had "played a significant role in the unconventional weapons programmes in Iran, Syria and Libya".
Germany topped the list of suppliers with 100, the report said, then 29 French, 22 British, 13 Italian and 13 Swiss.
German companies have played a crucial role in helping Iran to build a chemical weapons industry, and have illegally supplied nerve gas precursor chemicals," the report said. It said France had played a "crucial role...in helping Syria to develop both a chemical weapons and a biological weapons capability".
The West German firm Degussa supplied of chemicals to Libya used to manufacture poison gas. This company also owned a 42.5 per cent share in the Degesch company, which supplied the Zyklon B gas used in the death camps. Degesch is the acronym for "Deutsche Gesellschaft fuer Schaedlingsbekaempfung", a company for the extermination of vermin.
It developed the method of using hydrogen cyanide, Zyklon B, as an ingredient in its fumigation gas for buildings and ships. The gas it supplied to Auschwitz was used in the killing of two million Jews.
"For years, Iraqi officers had asked us how it had been with the gassing of the Jews." said Maj. Gen. Karl-Heinz Nagler, former head of the East German Army's chemical service, who had trained the Iraqi Army in chemical warfare for 15 years.
The manufacturing of di-fluoro - from which nerve gas is obtained - requires resistant glass components. Two German companies gave these to the Syrians.
French scientific institutes also played a role, through scientific exchanges.
...
We can be partners in the Jewish struggle against the new apocalypse. Or we can be part of it. The European companies and scientists have made their choice.
Sources close to the Israel Defense Force told FoxNews.com soldiers have been put on standby and are ready to move, while civilian demand for gas masks has jumped 66 percent over the last few weeks from 2,200 to 3,700 per day. The fears center around the prospect of Hezbollah getting Syrian chemical weapons as the Assad regime shows imminent signs of collapse.
...
“It appears the IDF may seek to eliminate Syria’s ability to transport the weapons to proxy forces but not to eliminate the actual weapons themselves by striking at storage facilities," Idan Kweller, political correspondent for Israel Army Radio, told FoxNews.com. "Israel’s main interest is to ensure the weapons are not passed on to the likes of Hezbollah in south Lebanon.”
I have not seen any indication that the IDF is up to anything on this front, although I assume that we have lots of intelligence officers in Syria. Hmmm.
Lieberman: Transfer of chem weapons to Hezbullah would be causus belli
Foreign Minister Avigdor Lieberman told Israel Radio on Wednesday morning that Israel would regard the movement of chemical weapons from Syria to Hezbullah as an act of war. According to Lieberman, if Israel sees the slightest indication that chemical and biological weapons are being transferred to Hezbullah, it would react 'with all its might' and the world is aware of that.
According to Lieberman, this is the reason why Syria rushed to deny a Tuesday report based on rebel sources that Syrian chemical weapons were being moved to airports along the country's borders.
IDF Chief warns Israeli attack on Syria chem weapons could lead to wider conflict
IDF Chief of Staff Benny Ganz warned on Tuesday that an Israeli attack on Syria's chemical weapons capability could lead to a wider conflict in the region. But that doesn't mean the IDF won't do it anyway.
Speaking to the Knesset’s Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee, Gantz said that the dilemma for Israel was identifying the correct moment to take action, if needed, to destroy the chemical weapons and prevent them from falling into the hands of terrorist groups like Hezbollah.
He also warned that Israeli action against the chemical weapons could lead to a larger-scale conflict than originally planned.
“They [Syrian military forces ] are guarding it and have even increased security so it will not fall into rogue hands although this does not mean it will stay that way,” Gantz said. “We need to take into consideration what will remain after we act and whose hands it will fall into.”
Gantz said that ongoing Syrian military defections were “feeding” the rebellion and were having a negative impact on the Syrian military. Predictions are that over 12,000 soldiers and officers have already defected including a number of senior officers.
“It is not just that they do not have commanders but it will also impact the soldiers’ performance over time,” he said.
Earlier in the day, head of the Defense Ministry’s Diplomatic Security Bureau Amos Gilad rejected Syrian opposition reports claiming that Assad was moving his chemical weapons stocks.
“At the moment, the entire non-conventional weapons system is under the full control of the regime,” Gilad told Israel Radio.
Earlier, Israel Radio had reported, based on rebel sources, that the weapons were being moved to airports along Syria's borders.
Video: Syrian foreign ministry spokesman threatens use of chem and bio weapons
A spokesman for the Syrian foreign ministry said on Monday that Syria has and will use chemical and biological weapons, and that it will use them if any other country attacks Syria.
For procrastinators in Israel who want to be prepared in the event of a war: Thursday is the last chance for Israelis to acquire a free gas mask and chemical attack defense kit. The vast majority of distribution stations, which have been open for the past two years, located in cities throughout the country, will stop operating at the close of business on March 1. Only six stations will remain open.
Officials report large crowds at stations over the past few days, as Israelis seek the government-supplied protective gear in the wake of increased tensions with Iran. Several stations have already shut down because they have run out of the gas mask kits, Home Front Security officials said.
Some 4 million kits have been distributed in the past two years, but officials estimate that only about 120,000 remain in stock. Budgetary issues prevented the Homefront Command from acquiring more kits, and ad campaigns during the period stressed that there was a limited supply of kits. It is estimated that at least a third of Israelis do not have kits right now, and unless more money is allocated to the program, they will have to purchase the kits themselves. At least NIS 1 billion (about $350 million) is needed to acquire more kits, but even if the money is found quickly, it would take at least several months to manufacture the masks according to IDF specifications.
The fact that the government is about to run out of gas masks is surreal, and I would suggest that those of you in Israel who don't have them already try to get them from one of the six remaining locations or buy them even if they aren't IDF specification. It's too important.
Second, while Iran might have chemical and biological weapons, the real threat in that area is not Iran but Syria. And given Syria's current domestic situation, the threat isn't so much from Syria itself as from chemical and biological weapons that Syria provided to Hezbullah (or Hamas but I don't think Hamas has any) and from chemical and biological weapons that might be let loose if and when the Assad government falls.
I will be on the BBC Radio Sunday morning at 10:15 Israel time (8:15 in the UK) to talk about this issue and other matters relating to the potential Iranian threat. I will remind you again on Sunday.
More than a year ago, I warned those of you who live in Israel to make sure you have gas masks. Did you listen? At the time, I warned that 40% of Israelis won't have gas masks by the end of 2012. Well, it's worse than that. Between 45-50% of Israelis won't have gas masks when the music stops. And the music is scheduled to stop sometime in April.
IDF data shows that it has only 400,000 kits left, which are expected to be distributed within the next three months on a "first come, first serve" basis. While the government has commissioned the production of 120,000 additional gas mask kits, the measure was meant to make sure that the factories remain functional; these kits are not to be distributed.
Once the last kits are distributed, 55% of Israeli citizens – 4.2 million people – will be in possession of a gas mask. The other 45%, as well as tens of thousands of refugees and migrant workers, will remain unprotected should an unconventional attack target Israel.
Producing enough kits to cover the rest of the population would cost NIS 1.2 billion (roughly $318 million).
"The distribution will stop because we don't have the budget," a senior Home Front Command official said. "But even if the funds turn up, it would take two years to manufacture the rest of the kits."
The data shows that in the area that is most vulnerable to an attack, stretching from Haifa to Ashdod, 38% of the citizens don't have gas masks. In cities that are less exposed, like Jerusalem and Eilat, distribution centers never opened. As result, only 15% of residents in the capital have a gas mask. Some 52% of Tel Aviv residents are in possession of the protective equipment.
If you don't have a gas mask and you live in Israel, please go tomorrow morning and get one. In light of the threats that we face, the failure to provide nearly half the population with gas masks is gross negligence of epic proportions (and something I have been warning about for years).
"The question is when, not if. And the big question is what's going to come the day after," he said.
"The immediate concern is the huge stockpiles of chemicals, biologicals (weapons), strategic capabilities that are still going into Syria, mainly from eastern Europe," Eshel said.
"That's a major concern because I don't know who is going to own those the day after. Up till now, what has been transferred to Hezbollah? What will be transferred to Hezbollah? What will be divided between those factions inside Syria? What is that going to create?
"We are talking about huge stockpiles," he said.
The regime has spearheaded a bloody crackdown on pro-democracy activists seeking to overthrow Assad, who has vowed to remain in power, raising the specter of civil war between Syria's many religious sects if he steps down.
Eshel said the threat of civil war was a real possibility if Assad clung to power.
...
Eshel also warned that Syria faces bankruptcy, which could create new instability.
"I think the major challenge the Syrians will face in a few months, is bankruptcy. The reserves will be zero, and this is going to create, I think, internal turmoil. We can expect refugees in many countries."
North Korea could sell weapons of mass destruction to Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hezbullah
Here's former US Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton on the death of North Korea's Kim Jong-Il.
Let's go to the videotape.
Note what he said about North Korea potentially 'auctioning off' nuclear weapons. Given North Korea's past history with both Iran and Syria, as well as with Hamas and Hezbullah, many of the likely buyers for those weapons would be in our region. The JPost's Yaakov Katz adds:
Former US ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton raised the possibility on Monday that Kim Jong-un might have difficulty in stabilizing his regime and will need to sell off some of North Korea’s military capabilities to provide for his people.
If this happens, Israel will need to be on alert to look out for the construction of new nuclear reactors in places like Syria, or the arrival of large shipments of missiles to terrorist groups like Hezbollah.
While we may intercept weapons' shipments, we are clearly not going to be the ones to send troops to North Korea to stop the shipments' originating.
Former Libyan Justice Minister: Gadhafi has chem and bio weapons and won't hesitate to use them
I wonder if 'Western intelligence' was aware of this.
Mustafa Abdel Galil, who resigned three days ago from his post as the country's justice minister, spoke to Al Jazeera at a meeting of tribal leaders and representatives of eastern Libya in the city of Al Baida.
He warned that Gaddafi has biological and chemical weapons, and will not hesitate to use them against civilians, particularly in the case of the capital.
"We call on the international community and the UN to prevent Gaddafi from going on with his plans in Tripoli," he said.
"At the end when he's really pressured, he can do anything. I think Gaddafi will burn everything left behind him," he warned.
Gaddafi opened his weapons stockpiles to international inspection and is known to have stockpiles of 9.5 metric tonnes of mustard gas. His government has reportedly destroyed 50 per cent of its chemical weapons cache.
In 2003 soon after the toppling of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, Libya agreed to dismantle its nuclear and chemical weapons programmes.
In return, the Bush administration resumed diplomatic relations and lifted economic sanctions.
The next year, Libya destroyed 3,300 unloaded aerial bombs used to disperse mustard gas and other chemical agents.
But disputes between Washington and Tripoli over funding and logistics have delayed plans to eradicate Libya's chemical agents, as well as its chemical weapons production facility.
Libya was to have destroyed all 23 metric tonnes of mustard gas by the end of 2010, according to the Hague-based Organization for the Prohibition of Chemical Weapons OPCW). It was granted an extension until May 2011 and is known to have a remaining 9.5 metric tonnes of mustard gas.
The Obama administration is working to maintain security of the materials, Tommy Vietor, the US National Security Council spokesperson, said.
"We have continued to urge the Libyans to safely complete destruction of their remaining chemical weapons agent as quickly as possible. As part of that process, the Libyans have taken appropriate steps to secure their [chemical weapons] from unauthorised access," he said on Thursday.
I hope he at least does not have the means to deliver them anywhere outside Libya.
Documents released by Wikileaks disclose that al-Qaeda is on the verge of manufacturing a nuclear weapon.
At a Nato meeting in January 2009, security chiefs briefed member states that al-Qaida was plotting a program of "dirty radioactive IEDs", makeshift nuclear roadside bombs that could be used against British troops in Afghanistan.
As well as causing a large explosion, a "dirty bomb" attack would contaminate the area for many years.
The briefings also state that al-Qaida documents found in Afghanistan in 2007 revealed that "greater advances" had been made in bioterrorism than was previously realized. An Indian national security adviser told American security personnel in June 2008 that terrorists had made a "manifest attempt to get fissile material" and "have the technical competence to manufacture an explosive device beyond a mere dirty bomb".
Alerts about the smuggling of nuclear material, sent to Washington from foreign U.S. embassies, document how criminal and terrorist gangs were trafficking large amounts of highly radioactive material across Europe, Africa and the Middle East.
The alerts explain how customs guards at remote border crossings used radiation alarms to identify and seize cargoes of uranium and plutonium.
Freight trains were found to be carrying weapons-grade nuclear material across the Kazakhstan-Russia border, highly enriched uranium was transported across Uganda by bus, and a "small time hustler" in Lisbon offered to sell radioactive plates stolen from Chernobyl.
In one incident in September 2009, two employees at the Rossing Uranium Mine in Namibia smuggled almost half a ton of uranium concentrate powder - yellowcake - out of the compound in plastic bags.
"Acute safety and security concerns" were even raised in 2008 about the uranium and plutonium laboratory of International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the nuclear safety watchdog.
Tomihiro Taniguchi, the deputy director general of the IAEA, has privately warned America that the world faces the threat of a "nuclear 9/11" if stores of uranium and plutonium were not secured against terrorists.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
