I am in the second plenary session of the day at the #Tomorrow13 President's conference.
Actually, I'm not. I'm sitting in common area watching on the big screen. It's much cooler, there's more space and there's definitely more light.
The speaker is President Obama's 2008 campaign manager, David Axelrod, and I could not think of a more appropriate time to post this picture.
In 2008, then-Senator Obama had no record and our corrupt media had
no interest in vetting him. Therefore, he was a cipher; a thing upon
which the world could gaze and pour their hopes and dreams into. With
his empty prose and sketchy rhetoric about hope and change, Obama
positioned himself to be whatever you wanted him to be.
And our compliant, biased, irresponsible, and dangerous media willfully aided and abetted that deception.
In 2008, The Cipher brought in a crowd estimated at 200,000.
Wednesday, The Reality pulled in only around 4,500.
What a difference failure makes. Epic failure. Heh.
P.S. Axelrod is going on and on about how the GM bailout was such a good thing and helped him carry Ohio. I think the 100%+ turnout in some Cleveland precincts had a lot more to do with that.
This conference has become much more Leftist. But it's still THE business networking event of the year, and I'm thrilled to be here.
#Tomorrow13 The World Order: Facing Tomorrow's Challenges
This is a liveblog of #Tomorrow13's The World Order: Facing Tomorrow's Challenges. I had to leave to go to a meeting for a couple of hours and now I'm back at the conference. Miri Eisen is moderating. The first speaker is Stuart Eizenstat. By the way, this is the only panel in which all the panelists have come here from abroad.
Eizenstat says that the world is now multi-polar. The old G-7 has been superseded by the G-20. Israel needs to adapt and is beginning to do so by deepening its relations with other countries. Israel has $10 billion in trade with China, a country that has no history of anti-Semitism. The US is no longer a rising power, but it will remain a power to be reckoned with for a long time. Only country that project air, sea and land power everywhere. Defense spending still more than the next 15 countries combined. Within five years - if not less - US will be largest producer of natural gas and by 2020 will produce more crude oil than Saudi Arabia, which will lower energy prices and make US more competitive.
China has its own problems.
Globalization is a major force, powered by the internet and the digital revolution. This is a net positive for Israel because Israel is adaptable.
How to manage the struggle for the hearts and minds of 1.6 billion Muslims. Eizenstat says that we shouldn't view this as a battle between the West and Muslims - rather it's a battle within the Muslim world itself. Arab revolution has aggravated this by bringing political Islam to power. Has had dramatic influences on alliances that US created over six decades. Those alliances are now shattered.
US and Israel have opportunities from this crisis, and need to grab them. Israel has important indirect role. Has to reach a rapprochement with Turkey. For sure Turkey started this in Davos when Erdogan walked out on Peres. The Mavi Marmara could have been resolved two years ago, and the agreement still has not been implemented because of a dispute over money.
If Israel can demonstrate that it can be proactive on 'peace process' it will help moderate Arab states. He admits that 'Palestinians' may not be able to make compromises now but should not stop Israel from demonstrating that it can make compromises. Advocates 2002 Saudi plan and says that we should dismantle outposts and allow only 'natural growth' in 'settlements.' (Sound familiar? See the previous post).
Eizenstat says that the delegitimization issue has added an economic element because Europe is our number one export market and what we're seeing is European multinationals refuse to invest anywhere in Israel because of Arab boycott. As we speak, 14 foreign ministers are calling on European Commission to impose labeling requirement on 'West Bank,' which is an incentive not to invest anywhere in Israel.
Cites Richard Falk saying HP, Elbit and others should be boycotted. (Does anyone listen to Falk?).
Because Israel is not alone, for almost all the issues he mentioned Israel has the same interests as other countries in the region.
Josef Joffe up next. Threats today not as bad in many ways as threats of previous generations. But Russia is back and that means that the 19th century is back. Russia gives great stuff to teach International Politics.
Other not good news from Obama's America - proposing to contain and neutralize itself. Leading from behind in Libya and not leading at all in Syria. No great power has ever done this to itself before, and what we may now be facing is creeping anarchy. For the first time since World War II, the US is involved in nation building at home. Putin and Khameni have reached the conclusion that opportunity beckons from Obama's America.
Antony Leong next. He's actually from Hong Kong. Chinese have great admiration for Jewish people. Why does China have so many fewer Nobel prize winners than Israel? Lots to learn.
China will grow 7% per annum for the next decade if not longer. China has to increase domestic consumption. Urbanization will bring lots of room for growth. Urbanized consumers consumer more. Only 50% of Chinese urbanized - typical western country is 75-85% urbanized. Seek similarities to other countries, but allow differences to coexist. Whenever there's a problem, US thinks of law, logic and relationship. China is reversed.
Five factors young people are seeing in tomorrow: Globalization, new technology taking away jobs, huge debt burden in most western countries (especially where there's one person one vote), inflation, aging population. In the last ten years in the US, 1% of population has captured 40% of wealth created.
Leong says we have to think about what kind of education we provide our young people, what jobs we find for them, and changing from a wealth creation bias to a wealth distribution bias.
Professor Dominique Moisi is next. 21st century will not be Asian or Chinese century. This is the first time a company has come to prominence without a universal message, only concerned about itself. And China won't do it: If China doesn't fight corruption, it's doomed, but if it does defeat corruption, the party is doomed. But three key words give hope in the continuation of Chinese growth. Decadence, fear. (Sorry - I missed the first one).
No American century. Europe being fragmented. But too early to bury Europe.
(Sorry but I am really wiped out...).
Ambassador Terje Rød-Larsen is next. Population growth, technology and identity are mega trends that are changing the world. He believes that the Middle East will maintain its centrality in geopolitics but what defines everything has changed. Israeli-Arab conflict no longer defines every conflict in the region.
The key to Iran is not the nuclear issue but that Iran's aim is to dominate the region. Iran's nuclear program is just a tool. But if they get nuclear weapons, the NPT will collapse and everyone else will seek nuclear weapons. Note that no one really worries about Israel's nuclear weapons because everyone knows that Israel doesn't want to dominate the region (as you read that, keep in mind who this guy is).
Moderator asking questions. Larsen says that the UN is losing its legitimacy and that's unlikely to change because Security Council permanent members unlikely to give up their status. Eizenstat says we've created an interdependent world where the seven countries that make cell phones cannot go to war. There are two great threats to US leadership to which it must step up by the end of this year: The Iranian nuclear threat (cannot let negotiations drag out while centrifuges spin; military solution better than nuclear Iran) and Syria (where if Hezbullah and Iran are seen as victors, it will have drastic consequences for the rest of the world).
#Tomorrow13 Should we initiate or should we wait until the Middle East sorts itself out?
Anyone who has read this blog for a day or more knows my position on this.... Steve Linde moderating.
I walked into this session as Itamar Rabinovich was speaking and now Dore Gold is up. Gold says that before we talk about what we should do, we have to recognize what has happened and where we stand. He says that we don't have an option for a permanent status agreement with the 'Palestinians' and lots of weapons on our borders and therefore we have to adopt the position of dispensable borders. Leaving the Jordan Valley would be a national disaster.
Dore Gold says that Hassan Rohani is a master of taqiyya and is the star of the first chapter of Gold's book on the Iranian nuclear threat. Rohani bragged in 2004 about how they completed their nuclear program because of his negotiations. Rohani is not a dove but a fox.
Dan Kurtzer now speaking. Kurtzer wants to talk about the ostrich and the eagle. Kurtzer says that ostrich exposes a certain part of its anatomy that might be exposed to shrapnel by burying its head in the ground. Israel has limited ability to influence change in Arab world, and is mostly affected by what Israel says and not by what it does. Response to Arab spring so far has been enlightened.
Kurtzer found out over the last few days that he's a solutionist and he believes that there's a solution to our dispute with the 'Palestinians.' Gap has been narrowed significantly but no final settlement has been reached. He thinks Israeli initiative which shows it understands that fire in its own house must be put out would be smart. That must include secure, recognized and defensible borders. Both peace treaties with Arab neighbors have provided us with security because they gave us peace partners who were responsible to implement the treaty just like we were. He says borders have to be negotiated. Starting with defined borders may be a way back into the 'peace process.'
Kurtzer says there's a major debate in the US over intervention in Syria. Israelis know better than anyone that conflict fatigue has affected the US - troops on the ground here for the last 12 years. To what degree are concrete achievable American needs at stake? American people aren't sure. Is a devil we know better than what will emerge from the outcome?
Meir Dagan up next. Says he's not a prophet. Says we should not fear worst case scenario. Says our interest and those of the Gulf countries, Egypt and maybe even the 'Palestinians' all have the same interest. All of us fear the open conflict between Shiite and Sunni, and that this creates opportunities for Israel to create different alliances.
Says Saudi plan a starting point and vital for us to discuss it even though he doesn't like all of it either. There are things for which we need the support of other Arab countries to reach an arrangement with the 'Palestinians.' Problems are complicated. Lists other issues in Iran aside from nuclear issue.
If Assad doesn't win in Syria, we can shut down Hezbullah. There are more opportunities here and we should take initiative with Arab world. Says the Muslim Brotherhood took over in Egypt because they were very well organized. New regimes in Tunisia and Libya may not survive - they are criticized daily. The same is true in Egypt. Morsy trying his best not to touch agreement with Israel because he is dependent on money he receives from the United States. King Abdullah has been ruling Jordan longer than any Prime Minister of Israel or any President of the United States. We took a risk with Jordan and it paid off. We have to prepare ourselves for the worst but take every opportunity and chance that we get.
20 minutes of panel debate and then short questions.
Sima Shine says she agrees with Dagan because he was her boss.... She wants to talk about the Iranian election. Where is Iran really going? She doesn't have an answer yet. Rohani is only becoming President in August. What does it mean that he was elected with more than 50% in the first round? She says that the public in Iran sees Rohani as stepping into Moussavi's shoes from 2009. Have to look at his internal agenda - is talking about lifting censorship and giving women more freedom. But the economy is terrible. In July there will be more sanctions. You cannot disconnect the economy from sanctions and the nuclear project and therefore he cannot improve the economy without coming to terms over the nuclear program. The Iranians want sanctions removed which is impossible.
She says that there is no doubt that Israel must initiate. The question is whether Israel has a good answer to all its problems and are they all connected. Will doing something about the 'Palestinians' change the situations in Syria and Iran? She says yes (I say no).
Itamar Rabinovich says that the problem is that no Israeli leader will put Olmert's 2008 proposal on the table, but that Abu Mazen won't accept anything else. So how to find a way to move forward? Offering them $4 billion as a bribe is not the best way forward. Saudi plan (now known as Arab peace initiative) may not be the best way forward. It talks about return to 1967 borders. That includes Syria and obviously no one is going to do that today. So need to open a dialogue with the Saudis but cannot put five lines on the table and say 'take it or leave it.'
Dore Gold says he agrees with Rabinovich that time is not ripe for a full final status agreement. He says that he also agrees with much of what Dagan said. In the '90's the entire approach was economic. The Middle East we have today has two common threats - the Iranians and the Muslim Brotherhood. That should help us to build dialogue with some Sunni Arab countries, but that dialogue has to be quiet.
Rabinovich says that 'two-state solution' is not dead and criticizes senior Israeli officials for saying that it's dead. For a senior minister in the cabinet to say that the 'two-state solution' is dead is damaging.
Kurtzer asks why isn't this the time to try for a final status agreement. He thinks this is a time to try for it. He says that we cannot look at the Arab peace initiative through its details but we have to understand the context and that it represents a victory for Zionism because it shows that the Arab world has given up on trying to destroy Israel. In 2002, Arab world threw up its hands and said that Israel is here to stay (if only... CiJ).
Kurtzer says that if we don't agree with him, we shouldn't keep digging the hole deeper with 'settlements.' He says it's just exacerbating the problem every day. People are moving into these houses with no expectation of being a bargaining chip and complicating the agreement that Israel says its seeks with the Arab world. Says people are looking at details instead of looking at eagle's perspective. Dagan pointed out unexpected benefits of Morsy government which has done more to stop Hamas tunnels than anyone else. Egypt working with Israel on strategic issues. Kurtzer says it's time for final status agreement but at least don't make the situation worse.
Dore Gold says that the problem with the Arab peace initiative is that it's 'take it or leave it.' You can't even keep the 'refugees' in Lebanon. It's not a basis for sitting down to talk. Unfortunately, it's take it or leave it.
Meir Dagan disagrees. He says that Israel has to start a serious dialogue with the 'Palestinians.' Saying that there's no way to reach an agreement is damaging to Israel. He knows we cannot reach a final agreement with the 'Palestinians' now but we have to talk to them seriously. He says that we have to take seriously the Arab League's willingness to accept the existence of the State of Israel.
Dagan says he agrees with Kurtzer. Asks rhetorically if we should wait for Hamas to take over in the 'West Bank.' At least the 'Palestinian Authority' has a goal of establishing a 'Palestinian state.' Says Hamas would win election and that is worst case scenario for Israel.
Now taking questions from the audience. First questioner asks Dore Gold why Israel doesn't just call the 'Palestinians' bluff by offering six-month 'settlement freeze.' (Because we did already - CiJ). Gold says just what I said. We did this. It may not have been perfect but the US recognized it was a real freeze. Maybe Mahmoud Abbas doesn't want a negotiation right now. Mubarak would help him in the old days but now Hamas' sponsors are in control in Cairo. Gold says that in a NY Times interview a few years ago, Abbas said that 'settlements' constitute 1.2% of 'West Bank' and Abbas offered 1.9% swap. Arafat signed Oslo without a 'settlement freeze.' There are far more important issues.
Itamar Rabinovich talks about 'settlement products' in Europe. Says Europeans ask why we don't want them to take a more active role. He says just think of what happened a few weeks ago and how the Austrians ran away from the Golan Heights (remember EUBAM? CiJ). BDS gaining in Europe. Rabinovich says don't expand 'settlements.' Improve our hasbara (public relations). Put 20 spokesmen on networks and it won't help if a minister gets up and says that Bibi doesn't want a 'two-state solution.'
Next questioner asks Dan Kurtzer what we're going to do about the Russians holding all the cards in Syria. Kurtzer says that you have to be careful what you say publicly (implies that Obama spoke too quickly on Syrian use of chemical weapons). US trying to weigh all factors carefully. What happens if Assad stays in power? Who will come to power if he leaves? If US believed that there would be a liberal democratic regime in Syria, there would be US bombers in Syria today. But that's not going to happen and the civil war is likely to continue even if Assad leaves. Russia has significant interests in that context. US and Russia trying to align their interests in a way that provides for a reasonable transition in Syria. It hasn't happened yet.
Meir Dagan disagrees with Dore Gold - says that the IDF can protect Israel from any border that the government decides. Withdrawing from Jordan Valley not a disaster according to Dagan. In 1967 we were on different borders and we prevailed militarily. Using security for political issues is a mistake according to Dagan.
Dore Gold cites Yitzchak Rabin's last speech to the Knesset in which he said that Israel had to retain the Jordan Valley in the widest sense possible. Ariel Sharon said the same and so did Gold when he prepared the IDF's interest map for Prime Minister Netanyahu. Gold and Dagan are going back and forth on this.
Dagan claims that Jordan Valley was only important until 1991. Iraq, Syria and Jordan were a threat until 1991 - called Eastern front. Claims it's no longer an issue (Really? Weapons smuggling to 'Palestinians' in Judea and Samaria? CiJ) because Iraq has no military and Abdullah won't join an eastern front. Says have to prevent terrorists from coming in but don't need direct military presence to do that if you have good cooperation with the Jordanians. Says he's not presenting a political approach. IDF can protect Israel from different borders.
Sima Shine agrees with Dagan (again - why is she on this panel?) about the Arab peace initiative even though we don't like the details and even though we don't know who will rule Syria. You have to take into account that the Arab peace initiative now is mostly Saudi Arabia, the Persian Gulf and maybe Syria.
Stanley Fischer is speaking to bloggers at the #Tomorrow13 conference in Jerusalem. He is the soon-to-be-retiring governor of the Bank of Israel.
Israeli economy starts with world economy. Low growth in Europe this year, US slightly better, but Israel's outside environment not good.
Israel also undertaking 'needed fiscal contraction to get the budget back.' Change in budget relative to year before is rather small but had to break promises. Look for 3.8% growth this year of which 1% will be impact of gas so 2.8% growth overall. Looking at 3-3.5% for 2014.
But we're at full employment - unemployment rate the lowest in 30 years.
Someone from Times of Israel asks if we have moral obligation to help 'Palestinians.' Fischer says we have moral obligation to help world, and economic growth for 'Palestinians' would probably be good for us. If we had free trade and a 'Palestinian' economy at peace, we would probably see a pickup in growth.
Someone asked about China and Fischer said that we don't need to be the ones to boycott China because of its human rights issue when no one else is.
Someone asked him about access to credit for small and medium enterprises. He said that some banks have put aside money for it but this is a worldwide problem.
There's a long line to ask questions so I will pass on that privilege. I wanted to ask about some of his statements about the size of Haredi families. I think what he really meant was that we ought not to be paying people to have children. I would say that we ought to have a means test to decide who needs help to raise their children. The yeled v'kelev crowd (one child and one dog) in North Tel Aviv that makes NIS 100,000 per month or more does not need the monthly subsidy. If so, he ought to say that. But that would enrage the chattering classes....
He's now talking about infrastructure priorities. He admits he doesn't know much about it, and the questioner, who keeps trying to get Fischer to say something about the JNF, is probably from the JNF. 'Nuff said. Have to talk to Elie Klein about limiting next year's blogger sessions to bloggers....
Someone asks him about solving Europe's economic problems. By the way. the rumor here is that Fischer will return to the US to be the governor of the Federal Reserve, so all of you stateside may be hearing a lot about him soon.
The #Tomorrow13 conference will be taking place on Wednesday and Thursday here in Jerusalem (after Shimon Peres' birthday party tonight from which bloggers were excluded). I'll be going to part of the conference but definitely will not be there all day like I have been in the past. Way too many other commitments, including - thank God - work! Deena Levenstein summed up the ambivalence that a lot of bloggers are starting to feel about a conference that's sponsored by Shimon Peres (Hat Tip: Mrs. Carl).
Shimon Peres. I’m sorry. I’m not a fan. Am I allowed to say this and then be the president’s guest for two days? I can’t help but grimace when I picture all the sucking up that happens at the conference. What is with that?
Are these people up for another serving of Oslo Accords?
I lived in Jerusalem at the time with bombs blowing up constantly on buses, in cafes and on the streets. I know people who were killed and injured. The idea of having to forgive or forget is appalling.
I can’t figure out why Peres is so respected in Israel (I don’t care about outside of Israel). It’s upsetting.
Also, what is it with leftists stealing words and making them their own? Peres, you do not own the word peace, it doesn’t have to mean what you and your cronies have made it mean (Jews bending over until their backs break in order to make terrorists happy). And I refuse to let you now own the word tomorrow! I will use the word tomorrow and not think of your conference Tomorrow tomorrow. Tomorrow.
But worst of all, I hate when I find myself getting starry-eyed about a public figure I don’t even respect.
Last year I attended the huge opening event where people terribly enthusiastically cheered on the president, standing ovations and all. I also went to the bloggers’ closed meeting with Peres and found that like almost everyone else there, I was hanging on his every word. Why? And how absolutely strange that I was disappointed by what he said when I already knew he speaks a language I proudly do not understand: Fluff.
But it's more than that. Maybe I'm imaging things but it seems that in the past there were more political sessions and more Right leaning panelists. Is it my imagination? Last year, I sat in on a panel with Caroline Glick and Naftali Bennett. Two years ago, I sat in one with Elliott Abrams (okay, he just got up from shiva last week) and another one with Anthony Cordesman. And at the very first conference there was an amazing speech by Jon Voight, which wowed the crowd... but I don't think he's been invited back since.
I haven't been through the entire schedule yet, but the only Right-leaning political figure I have found is Dore Gold.
Will there be a President's Conference when Peres is no longer President?
#Tomorrow13 A Muslim talks about Israel's President's conference
Next week, I will be attending the annual President's Conference here in Jerusalem for the third time (maybe even the fourth). One of the speakers will be Raheel Raza, the President of the Council of Muslims Facing Tomorrow. Raheel received a letter from a 'Palestinian in Vancouver' urging Raheel to boycott the conference. She wrote this piece in response.
My response to my Palestinian friend is that the first time I was
invited to speak at this conference three years ago, I went, hesitantly,
not knowing what it was all about. I was so enthused by both my visit
to Israel and the conference that I wrote extensively about the
experience on my blog, and later named my own Not-for-Profit
Organization "Muslims Facing Tomorrow" with an idea that one day, I
would host a similar conference about ideas and a vision for a better
tomorrow.
Upon my return, I praised the country and the people, but many of my
Muslim friends were not interested in knowing these details. They only
asked, "Were there any Palestinians at the conference and was the
Israel-Palestinian issue discussed?" I was happy to respond that yes,
there were Palestinians at the conference; I had even brought home a
book on Islam from one of the Palestinian speakers there.
About human rights violations: granted that Israel, like every other
country, has violations -- but far fewer than those of the countries
surrounding it. Israel is still the only liberal democracy in the area
where one can find gender equality and freedom for its citizens. During
my visits to Israel, I have, in fact, questioned Israeli Arabs and found
that they are loath to leave the country where they enjoy freedom and
human rights.
...
My problem is that I am from Pakistan, a country where the word human
rights has no meaning or recognition whatsoever. According to the Human
Rights Watch World Report on Pakistan for 2012, Pakistan had a
disastrous year -- including increasing attacks on civilians by militant
groups, religious minorities facing unprecedented insecurity and
persecution, and where freedom of belief and expression are coming under
severe threat as the presence of Islamists has grown by leaps and
bounds. This does not even begin to address violations against women.
The Aurat Foundation, a local women's rights group in Pakistan, says the
number of incidents of violence against women in Pakistan has increased
at least seven percent over the past year.
But I have never seen or heard a Palestinian speak out about these
human rights violations; take part in demonstrations or boycotts for
these offences, or show support for the cause of Pakistani women. Where
were their voices when Christians and Shias were being killed and
brutalized in Pakistan just a few months ago? No one asked me to cancel
my annual visits to Pakistan, but I did lodge a complaint against my own
land of birth at the UNHRC, so I may not be travelling back there soon.
...
In ending let me say this to my Palestinian friend: The
Palestinian-Israeli conflict is over land, and can be solved when both
sides recognize one another and, as equals, then have a dialogue. This
means that, like me, you have to accept that Israel has a right to
exist. It is not the only conflict related to Muslims. If you want
justice for those facing criminal human rights violations, then speak
out against Sudan, Egypt, Burma, China, Iran and all other countries who
regularly persecute their own citizens.
Tomorrow: The Israeli Presidential Conference 2011
I've received some promotional material for Tomorrow, the Israeli Presidential Conference 2011. The conference is taking place in Jerusalem June 21-23. There's a list of speakers here and a list of topics here. The conference is sponsored by Shimon Peres.
Here's a video with past highlights of the conference.
Let's go to the videotape.
Anyone think Barack Obama will show up? Personally, I'd rather Jon Voight showed up again.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
