Lebanese media cited Hariri, an ardent rival of Hezbollah, as slamming
the organization for its attack on Israeli targets, saying it
contributes to "disrupting national efforts in the fight against
terrorism and extremism."
He also criticized what he said was the tendency by many in Lebanon to overlook the actions of Hezbollah.
“These
sides are acknowledging that the party has the exclusive right to set
up camps in Lebanon and wage wars without the consent of the state,
government, and army,” the Lebanese newspaper Al-Nahar's website quoted
Hariri as saying.
The IDF responded to the bombs planted by Hezbollah by shelling two of the group's targets in southern Lebanon.
The
army suspects that the incident is directly related to Sunday’s
attempted infiltration from Lebanon, which occurred in the same region.
My sense is that Hariri doesn't have as much influence as he used to, and that the Lebanese Army is on the verge of (if not already) part of the fight against us, but it's nice to hear a little common sense coming out of any Arab country.
A powerful explosion has rocked downtown Beirut Friday, according to the Washington Post, shattering windows and killing an unknown number of people.
It has been confirmed that former Lebanese minister Mohammed Shattah, adviser to former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri and
a staunch critic of Iranian-backed Hezbollah, was killed in the
blast. Hariri and 21 others were killed in a car bomb attack in Beirut
in February 2005 [pictured above. CiJ]; the attack was blamed on Hezbollah, and pushed
sectarian tensions in the country to the brink.
The Guardian notes that Shattah, 62, is the second senior
opposition figure to have been killed in the past 14 months. Figures
linked to the Hariris have a history of being killed off over at least
nine years, the news agency said.
The explosion was heard at about 9:40 a.m. emanating from just behind the Four Seasons hotel in the Lebanese capital. USA Today notes that the site was just a few hundred yards from important government and parliamentary buildings.
Reports now indicate that the explosion was from a car bomb. The
engine of the car carrying the bomb was flung about 50 meters, according
to the Wall Street Journal. Black smoke could be seen billowing from the area.
...
At least 5 people have been confirmed dead, with 15 injured; local
media reports describe dead bodies littering the bomb site. The Lebanese
Health Ministry has reportedly raised the number of injured to as high
as 70, according to the Los Angeles Times.
No terror group has yet claimed responsibility for the attack. However, Lebanese media outlet Al-Mayadeen, which is close to Hezbollah, reported that Shattah was the target of the attack.
In addition, several news outlets have pointed out that the attack
comes just hours after Shattah posted and anti-Hezbollah tweet. Shattah
was outspoken against the terror group, and its influence on the
Lebanese government, reports say.
Former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri is blaming Hezbullah for the assassination.
"As far as we are concerned the suspects...are
those who are fleeing international justice and refusing to represent
themselves before the international tribunal," Hariri said, referring to
five Hezbollah suspects indicted for the 2005 killing of his father.
The trial of the five suspects is due to open in The Hague in January.
The suspects are all fugitives and Hezbollah, which denies any role in
the Hariri assassination, has refused to cooperate with the court which
it says is politically motivated.
...
A tweet posted on his Twitter account less than an hour before the
blast accused the Shi'ite movement of trying to take control of the
country.
#Hezbollah
is pressing hard to be granted similar powers in security &
foreign policy matters that Syria exercised in Lebanon for 15 yrs.
The
explosion sent shock waves among residents and emptied the streets in
downtown where people, seeking a respite from recent turmoil, had
ventured out to enjoy the Christmas and New Year holiday period.
...
Sources at the explosion site said Chatah was on his way to attend a
meeting at Hariri's headquarters when the explosion tore through his
car. Hariri himself has stayed away from Lebanon for more than two
years, fearing for his safety.
A Reuters witness at the scene said
his car was "totally destroyed, it is a wreck." Chatah's identity card,
torn and charred, was found inside his car.
Former Lebanese President Saad Hariri still fears Bashar al-Assad, the man who likely ordered his father's murder. So in the aftermath of Tuesday's bombing at the Iranian embassy in Beirut, Hariri found time to condemn the 'terrorist bombing,' while at the same time calling for the removal of Hezbullah terrorists from Syria.
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri condemned the bombing that targeted the Iranian embassy in Beirut Tuesday, saying the attack should prompt an end to any military interference in Syria.
"This terrorist attack is condemned at all political and ethical standards," Hariri said in a statement.
"[It] should be a motive to distance Lebanon
from the raging fires around it and to spare the Lebanese the dangers
of military interference in the Syrian crisis," he added.
Hariri also called on all parties to resort to reason during these “difficult times.”
Like the beaten wife who goes back to her abusive husband, former Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri continues to adopt the positions of Bashar al-Assad, the man who murdered Hariri's father. This time, Hariri is accusing Israel of being behind a bomb blast that went off in Hezbullah's stronghold in the Dahiye section of southern Beirut earlier this week.
This is from the third link.
Hariri, who heads the
predominantly Sunni Future Movement (Tiyyar al-Mustaqbal) party in
Lebanon, accused Israel of organizing the "terrorist attack" to "push
Lebanon to strife" and destabilize the country, according to Lebanese
English-language newspaper The Daily Star.
"The blast requires the highest-level awareness," Hariri cautioned.
The statements of the former prime minister,
whose government collapsed in 2011 when the opposition parties including
Hezbollah withdrew, echoed comments by Hezbollah MP Ali Ammar on
Tuesday, who said shortly after the bombing that the "act clearly bears
the fingerprint of the Israeli enemy and its tools."
Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon on Tuesday did
not comment on Lebanese accusations directed at Israel, but said, "This
fight is between the Sunnis and the Shiites and Israel will not
intervene in it."
If they actually believe this, they are totally off the wall. And if they don't believe it, they don't see the civil war that's just around the corner as a result of Hezbullah's support of Assad.
Former Prime Minister Saad Hariri blasted the government Thursday over its silence on recent clashes between Hezbollah fighters and Syrian rebels, accusing it of handing over national security to the party.
Meanwhile, Lebanese security sources denied claims by the rebel Free
Syrian Army that one of its battalions had struck Hezbollah bases in the
eastern city of Hermel near the border with Syria.
“What is happening on the Lebanese-Syrian border is extremely
dangerous, and most dangerous of all is that the Lebanese government is
[acting unaware] and allowing Hezbollah to take control of national
security,” Hariri said in a statement.
“Hezbollah is providing new proof of the use of illegitimate arms ...
The Lebanese government is [guilty] of keeping silent on this terrible
disregard for national security,” the head of the opposition Future
Movement added.
Well, yeah, except that Hezbullah now is the Lebanese government and knows exactly what's going on.
And lest you think that Hariri might have figured out that there's a little country to the south of him that has pretty much the same interest in what's going on in Syria, namely that neither side win....
Hariri also slammed Hezbollah for using its weapons for objectives other
than resisting against Israel. “We were not far from the truth when we
said resistance is no longer the main function of Hezbollah,” he said.
My opinion of Hariri just took a nose dive. He's not very smart. But please send some more popcorn.
Lebanon denies knowing whereabouts of Hezbullah suspect
In an interview with Time Magazine, one of the four suspects in the murder of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri claimed that the Lebanese government knows exactly where he is if they want to come and get him. The Lebanese government denies that is the case. And Hariri's son, former Prime Minister Saad al-Hariri, is furious.
“Does Prime Minister Najib Mikati, with his team of ministers, in principle responsible for Lebanon’s adherence to the Special Tribunal [for Lebanon], want to listen to this interview and the announcement that came from the mouth of the accused about [authorities] not apprehending him despite knowledge of his whereabouts?” Hariri asked in a statement, according to his office.
In an interview published on the Time magazine website Thursday, one of the Hezbollah suspects who spoke on condition that his name and location not be revealed, said he was wrongfully accused in the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri and said Lebanese authorities had knowledge of his whereabouts but would not apprehend him.
Saad Hariri also made reference to President Michel Sleiman in his statement, asking: “Has President Michel Sleiman heard of this interview that Time magazine published with one of the accused and who is wanted by international justice in the case of the assassination of [former] Prime Minister Rafik Hariri?”
Hariri accused Lebanese officials of bowing down to Hezbollah’s demands.
“It appears, neither of these [officials], want to listen or read or see or even speak. The policy of … burying ones head in the sand towards everything that deals with Hezbollah and its influence on Cabinet’s decision … is prevalent and none of the authorities can oppose the views and will of the supreme leader of the Lebanese republic,” Hariri said, in an apparent reference to Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hasan Nasrallah.
The only thing that's surprising here is that Hezbullah has not tried yet to kill Saad al-Hariri.
I hope he has better security than his father had.
Call me irrational, but I have this feeling that, like the Gemayels, deep down, Saad Hariri is a decent man who cares about his country, and who, in the absence of outside interference would make peace with Israel. But if he keeps saying things like this, he's not going to live long enough for us to find out.
"The weapons (of Hezbollah) are the cause of the problem in Lebanon. Hezbollah does not know what to do with its arms. It is our problem with Hezbollah and also it is a problem for Hezbollah," Hariri told a local television channel.
"What is it going to do with them? Is it going to continue pointing them at the Lebanese?" he said, speaking from Paris.
The group says it needed its weaponry to fight Israel, but in 2008 its supporters fought followers of Hariri, a Sunni Muslim, in sectarian clashes in which at least 81 people were killed.
I would not want to see Hariri killed, and I certainly admire the way in which he has continued to force the issue of his father's murder. But it seems to me that either he has to go into exile and fight from the outside (in which case he can say whatever he wants), or he should stay in Lebanon and work more quietly behind the scenes. Otherwise, he is likely to follow in his father's footsteps in a way that I'm sure he does not want.
You will recall that back in November Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri put on a game face and said that he didn't believe that Bashar al-Assad had anything to do with his late father Rafik.
You will also recall that in January, when the Lebanese government fell apart, Assad was furious with Hariri, which had to make you wonder how sincere their reconciliation was in the first place. Now, it turns out, that Hariri wasn't very sincere about making up with Assad either. It seems that Hariri is supporting the anti-Assad forces in Syria.
Syrian government TV channel reports that senior Syrian officials suspect that the weapons boats caught off Syria's coast were sent from Tripoli by activists from the Lebanese Al-Mustaqbal movement.
Al-Mustaqbal is headed by Sa'd Al-Hariri.
The Lebanese Al-Safir daily reports that Syria sent a harsh message to the main political stream in the new Lebanese opposition [i.e. to Al-Mustaqbal] saying that it had information on the involvement of Lebanese elements in the unrest in Der'a and Latakiya, and clarified that it would take a serious view of any harm to Syrian security.
Al-Mustaqbal secretary-general Ahmad Al-Hariri said that Syrian TV's claim harms Lebanon and asked that the group not be linked to events in Syria. He said that as far as Al-Mustaqbal was concerned, Syria's and Lebanon's stability were one and the same.
With Saad Hariri and the March 14 coalition now clearly on the outside of the next Lebanese government, they are finally raising an issue that should - in a just world - have been raised a long time ago: Hezbullah's weapons.
The decision of Saad Hariri and March 14 to make an issue of Hezbollah’s arms is overdue. Lebanon’s inability to consolidate its shaky social contract, to address political reform, to reinforce the authority of the state, and to fortify its deficient sovereignty are all consequences of the lack of a national consensus, deriving from the untenable relationship between a state and an armed group militarily more powerful than the state that has used its arms, or compulsively threatens to do so, in order to protect itself and its autonomy from that state. Until this matter is resolved, Lebanon will function at two speeds – that of Hezbollah and its allies, and that of everyone else.
However, does March 14 have what it takes to prevail? Not so long ago, Saad Hariri was defending what he described as the arms of the resistance. Three governments led by the former majority crafted convoluted policy statements to sanction Hezbollah’s retention of its substantial military arsenal. March 14 is correct in saying that Hezbollah has directed its weapons against other Lebanese, and that its deployment of men dressed in black in Beirut’s streets last January, after finalization of the draft indictment at the Special Tribunal for Lebanon, was a threat to repeat that. But then March 14 went ahead and participated in the parliamentary consultations that gave Hezbollah the prime minister it and Syria wanted, allowing the party to claim that it had worked through constitutional channels.
That does not mean that March 14 is mistaken in focusing on weapons, but unfortunately the twists and turns the coalition has navigated to reach this conclusion indicate, rightly or wrongly, that it is relying to some measure on political improvisation. Worse, Hariri must respond more persuasively to the charge that he shifted gears on Hezbollah’s guns because he was not returned as prime minister. Unless he does so, March 14 could find itself on the defensive in advancing a very risky agenda to push for Hezbollah’s disarmament.
The columnist, the Daily Star's Michael Young, goes on to argue that March 14 should make a tradeoff, offering greater Shiite participation in government along the lines of the Taif accords in exchange for Hezbullah giving up its weapons. (For those of you who are not familiar with how Lebanon works, each of the major positions in its government must be filled by a member of a designated ethnic group. The rules were set a long time ago, and there has been a significant population shift toward the Shiites that has never been taken into account).
Young hints at what the likely denouement of such a tradeoff would be, although he clearly wishes it weren't so. The result of such a shift would most likely lead to Hezbullah swatting away the Lebanese Armed Forces like an annoying fly and carrying out a coup d'etat that would make the bloodbath in Libya look like child's play.
Hariri and March 14 won't be party to an effort to disband Special Tribunal
Caretaker Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri and his March 14 coalition say they won't be part of a coalition government with the Hezbullah-led March 8 coalition because the latter seeks to disband the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. The Special Tribunal for Lebanon is investigating the murder of Hariri's father Rafik by a truck bomb in 2005. The murder was likely carried out by Hezbullah on orders from Syria.
Caretaker Premier Saad Hariri justified the March 14 alliance’s refusal to be part of Najib Mikati’s government by stressing that the Hezbollah-backed Cabinet aims at “eliminating” the Special Tribunal for Lebanon.
March 14 “saw that it is in the interest of Lebanon and the Lebanese to move to a real national opposition that responds to the requirements of a democratic system,” Hariri said in the interview published Monday.
“They wanted us to become part of a government that seeks to eliminate the international tribunal from the policy statement,” Hariri told al-Mustaqbal daily about the March 8 forces.
The new opposition should “preserve the nation” against efforts to target the constitution and the Taef accord, he added.
When asked if the March 14 decision to become the new opposition was the start of a campaign for the 2013 parliamentary elections, Hariri said: “This issue is not linked to power. It is about essential things that effected public life.”
He said the next elections will be an opportunity for the Lebanese “to salvage the democratic system” from Hizbullah’s arms.
Can Lebanon stop the Special Tribunal looking into the Hariri murder?
With the indictments for the murder of then-Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri currently under review by pre-trial Judge Daniel Fransen, Naharnet looks at the limited ability of whatever new Lebanese government takes power to legally stop the proceedings.
Western sources stressed that the Lebanese government did not have the authority to withdraw the judges from the Special Tribunal for Lebanon that will prosecute ex-Premier Rafik Hariri's suspected assassins.
"The judges were appointed by the U.N. secretary-general. That's why the Lebanese government cannot withdraw them," the sources told pan-Arab daily al-Hayat in remarks published Wednesday. "The judges could resign however," they said.
If Lebanon decides to stop funding the tribunal, then the issue would be discussed at the Security Council, the sources said.
They told the newspaper that funding was one of the major challenges facing the court and unveiled that the tribunal was seeking to find other channels in case Lebanon doesn't pay its dues by the end of April.
STL officials will meet with leaders of Gulf countries and will continue their consultations with American and European officials to convince them "to double their shares," according to the sources.
Turkey and Greece have already made commitments to provide funding to the court in the coming years, they said.
Asked about the arrest of suspects, the sources told al-Hayat: "The arrest of people in Lebanon goes back to the Lebanese government because the tribunal doesn't have its own police."
"A memorandum of understanding has been signed with the Interpol. So, If arrests were made, they (the suspects) would be brought to trial or else they would be tried in absentia," they said.
The sources stressed that people and not parties would be named in the indictment "because a crime is the responsibility of people."
So what will happen? Here are some of my thoughts.
First, although Hezbullah members will be indicted, they will never serve a day in jail.
Second, it won't matter. The point here isn't necessarily to punish the culprits (regardless of what's said above). The point is to expose to anyone willing to listen that Hezbullah is a ruthless terror organization.
Third, murdering judges to encourage their colleagues to resign (a tactic Hezbullah has used to deal with Lebanese MP's in the past) will not ameliorate Hezbullah's public relations problems.
Give Saad Hariri credit. He managed to stay alive and in power long enough to make sure the Tribunal is meaningful.
Outgoing Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri announced on Monday that he will form an opposition rather than joining a government led by Hezbullah.
His successor, Hezbollah-backed Sunni billionaire Najib Mikati, is now negotiating to form a cabinet and had called on Mr. Hariri and his allies to join a unity government. Mr. Hariri's move secures Hezbollah's place as the dominant political force in the next Lebanese government.
With the announcement, in an impassioned, confrontational speech to thousands of supporters, the Sunni leader, who until last month had to manage a range of interests in his own unity government, set the stage for heightened conflict. Mr. Hariri called for mass protests on March 14, and accused Hezbollah and its allies of "lies, betrayal and lack of loyalty."
He also reaffirmed his support for a United Nations-backed tribunal investigating the assassination of his father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri, on Feb. 14, 2005. The assassination, in a car bombing, was a pivotal event in Lebanon, and led to the end of Syria's 30-year military occupation of the country.
There's something left unsaid here: With a Hezbullah dominated government, it is highly likely that the US will cut off aid to Lebanon. The stronger the Hezbullah domination, the more likely the cutoff.
Former American ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton says that Lebanon is even more crucial than Egypt to determining whether there will be democracy in the Middle East.
Rescuing Lebanon from radicals and terrorists will require strong action, noticeably absent in recent U.S. policy. We can no longer pretend that the special tribunal's existence is an adequate response to the real problem in Lebanon: Tehran's long-standing drive for regional hegemony. It was always a mistake to confuse the effectiveness of an international criminal court with courts of real constitutional governments, and harmfully naive to think that the special tribunal could operate in a vacuum, as the events in Lebanon make painfully clear.
Of course, Hezbollah's toppling of the Lebanese government is just the latest of its cancerous efforts in its home base. And it remains a continuing threat to innocent civilians in Israel, to other Arab governments in the Middle East and increasingly to other nations around the globe.
...
The West must insist on enforcing the Security Council resolutions in support of Lebanese sovereignty and peaceful, representative government, or stop engaging in meaningless gestures. This is our last opportunity before Hezbollah's armed capabilities swallow democracy in Lebanon, perhaps permanently, and dramatically increase the risk of renewed hostilities throughout the region.
President Obama's reaction is crucial. Unlike Washington's repeated prior failures, we must refuse to recognize any Hezbollah-dominated government as legitimate, at least until Hezbollah fully disarms and becomes a real political party. This may well mean committing to more than an impotent U.N. peacekeeping force in Lebanon. Hezbollah's 1983 bombings of U.S. and French forces in Beirut caused their withdrawal, a rare failure of will by then-President Reagan, leading to today's crisis. We stand aside again at our peril.
The White House has been obsessed for two years with pressuring Israel to make concessions to Palestinians instead of focusing on the manifestations of Iran's menace. Perhaps the humiliation of Hezbollah's collapsing of Saad Hariri's government as Hariri was meeting in the Oval Office will help spur Obama into meaningful action. If not, the lights will be going out in Lebanon for a long time to come, with devastating consequences in the broader Middle East.
I'm afraid that the lights are out already. The US has very little leverage in Lebanon. It doesn't provide massive amounts of aid, so the threat to cut that aid off is pretty empty. And while Bolton hints at how the US could make a difference - by committing to more an impotent UN peacekeeping force by sending troops - I highly doubt that the Obama administration is going to be the one to send US troops to Lebanon again.
"Sunni blood is boiling", chanted some protesters in the north of the country, burning pictures of prime ministerial nominee Najib Mikati and waving blue flags of Hariri's Future Movement. The movement has said it will not serve in any government dominated by the militant Shi'ite group.
In Beirut, the main road connecting the city with the airport was closed to traffic due to the protests and some reported that guns could be heard being fired in the area. The Arabic language Al Arabiya TV network reported clashes between police and protesters in the central part of the city.
Lebanon's power-sharing political system mandates that the post of prime minister be held by a Sunni, and Hariri supporters said any figure who accepted the nomination from Hezbollah to form a new government would be considered a traitor.
Mikati urged citizens to remain calm on Tuesday and said he wanted to represent all of Lebanon.
"This is a democratic process," he told reporters. "I want to rescue my country."
Protesters in Tripoli set fire to a truck used by the television station Al Jazeera. Journalists from the channel and other reporters said they were taking refuge in a nearby building.
"If the army does not hurry up and help us, we will be in danger," Al Jazeera reporter Majed Abdel-Hadi said in a live call broadcast by the channel.
Great news: Hezbullah has enough votes to take over Lebanon
Hezbullah has lined up enough votes in the Lebanese parliament to name that country's next Prime Minister. They plan to name billionaire businessman Najib Mikati, a 'moderate' politician and former premier. Hezbullah's opponents in the March 14 movement rioted in Tripoli in response.
Several hundred Hariri supporters in the northern city of Tripoli, a predominantly Sunni area and a hotbed of fundamentalists, staged protests Monday chanting slogans against Mikati, a lawmaker from Tripoli.
The protesters waved pictures of Hariri and shouted: "Mikati you are not one of us, leave Tripoli and go away." Some banners read: "The blood of Sunnis is boiling."
The protesters briefly closed a main road in the town of Minyeh in Tripoli.
Mikati appealed for calm and, in a statement, called on Hariri supporters not to upset stability.
Hizbullah and its allies had the support of at least 57 seats and gained seven more from the bloc of Walid Jumblatt, the influential leader of the Druse sect. With Mikati's vote, Hizbullah reached 65. The voting in parliament on a new candidate for prime minister was to continue on Tuesday.
Hizbullah leader Sheik Hassan Nasrallah said Sunday if their candidate gets the post of prime minister, the group will try to form another national unity government with Hariri's Western-backed bloc.
But Hariri said Monday he will not join a government headed by a Hizbullah-backed candidate.
On Sunday, Hizbullah's bloc chose Mikati, who served briefly as premier in 2005. He presented himself as a candidate reaching out to all sides.
"I don't distinguish between anyone. I extend my hand to everyone without exception. ... I say to Prime Minister Saad Hariri, let us all work together for the sake of Lebanon," he told reporters.
But Mikati dodged a question if he would end Lebanon's cooperation with the international court — a key Hizbullah demand — saying only that "any dispute can be solved only through dialogue."
A statement issued by Hariri's office said there is no "consensual candidate" and made clear Hariri remained the Western-backed camp's choice for prime minister.
Lawmaker Oqab Sakr said Mikati's candidacy was "a clear challenge to the will of the parliamentary and popular majority."
A Harvard graduate, Mikati is seen as a relatively neutral figure who enjoys good relations with Syrian President Bashar Assad and with the pro-Western Hariri, who himself is seeking to keep the post.
Mikati, whose wealth is estimated at $2.5 billion is on the Forbes list of world billionaires. In the 1980s, during Lebanon's civil war, he founded telecom company Investcom with his elder brother, Taha. They sold the company to South Africa's MTN Group for $5.5 billion in 2006.
The Mikati brothers now run M1 Group, a multibillion dollar holding company with interests in telecom, oil and gas and real estate among other things.
Last year, M1 bought a 13.95 percent stake in Bank Audi, Lebanon largest bank, for $450 million.
Israel radio has just reported that the United States says it would 'find it difficult' to support Lebanon if Hezbullah plays any key role in the government.
With Lebanon's March 14 (pro-Western) coalition being abandoned by the United States and other Western countries, Lebanon's leaders are doing what they feel they have to do to ensure their personal survival and that of their people. On Friday, Druse leader Walid Jumblatt threw his lot in with Syria and Hezbullah, the murderers of his father and of his friend, Rafik al-Hariri.
“After the Special Tribunal for Lebanon (STL) took a turn to become politicized par excellence, it has become a threat to national unity and security,” he added during a press conference held amid conflicting reports on his Democratic Gathering bloc’s choice for the nomination of Lebanon’s next prime minister.
Jumblatt also said that regional initiatives on the Lebanese political crisis called for the abrogation of Lebanon’s agreement with the STL and the country’s withdrawal of its judges from the tribunal, but added that international interference sabotaged the initiatives.
“These points were set by Assad, Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Hezbollah chief Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Speaker Nabih Berri.”
Jumblatt holds 11 seats in Lebanon's parliament. 65 are required to win. Before Jumblatt's announcement, Prime Minister Sa'ad Hariri led Hezbullah 60-57. But there is no guarantee that all of Jumblatt's MP's will follow him in voting for Hezbullah's candidate for Prime Minister (who is likely to be former Prime Minister Omar Karami - under Lebanon's constitution, the Prime Minister must be a Sunni Muslim).
Jumblatt's announcement has prompted warnings from two quarters. The first is Lebanese Christian leader Samir Geagea.
If Hizbullah dominates the next Lebanese government, Lebanon will “turn into Gaza,” Samir Geagea, leader of the Christian Lebanese Forces, warned at a press conference in Beirut on Saturday.
Geagea also warned that in such a scenario, Lebanon’s economy would be devastated and freedoms would be repressed.
The Christian leader was referring to Hamas’s takeover of Gaza in 2007 and the devastation of its economy that followed. Both Hamas and Hizbullah are funded by Iran.
”Did any one wonder what will happen to the Lebanese pound if the other side assumes power in Lebanon?” Geagea asked.
Geagea is speaking only in terms of the economic devastation and religious persecution that he and his co-religionists are likely to face in the event of a Hezbullah takeover of his country. But there's a far bigger issue that ought to concern all Lebanese: What Israel's reaction might be. Hezbullah is much stronger than Hamas, and has much more (both in quantity and quality) devastating firepower to throw at Israel than Hamas has. And that, points out Michael Totten makes Israeli restraint much less likely (Hat Tip: Challah Hu Akbar).
Everybody in Lebanon needs to understand something: Israel is more likely than ever to target the entire country during the next round of conflict. Not since 1948 has Israel fought a war against the Lebanese government; its wars in Lebanon have always been waged against terrorist organizations that were beyond the control of the state.
But if Hezbollah leads the government, the government will be a legitimate target. That’s how it works. Regime-change in Lebanon would have been an insane policy with Hariri’s March 14 coalition in charge, but it won’t be if Hezbollah is calling the shots.
Totten is correct. Everyone here in Israel is watching the goings on in Lebanon with trepidation. This is Vice Premier and former Foreign Minister Sylvan Shalom (Likud):
Vice Premier Silvan Shalom said Saturday that the decision of the Lebanese Druse Leader Walid Jumblatt to join Hizbullah in establishing a new government creates a real danger of the establishment of an Iranian government on the northern border with Israel.
In remarks at a cultural event in Bat Yam, he said "this is no longer a terrorist organization inspired and supported by Iran, but a real sovereign government."
He added that "this is a dangerous development that requires Israel to follow closely and be prepared for any future development."
Jumblatt's move is not surprising if viewed in the context of the Druse approach to politics. This is Totten in a different piece.
The Druze, like the Maronites, are too few to build their own state. They don’t even appear to want their own state, opting instead for caution to insure themselves against persecution. Kamal Jumblatt, the father of Lebanon’s current Druze leader Walid Jumblatt, once explained his people this way: “Ever alert, [Druze] gauge their surroundings and choose their words carefully, assessing what must be said and what can be said.”
They’re loyal to whoever is in charge of the country they live in. Syria’s Druze side with Bashar Assad and the Baath Party. Lebanon’s Druze forge alliances with the majority coalition of local political parties, or with whoever is ruling Lebanon from the outside. Israeli Druze support and defend the Zionist project.
By his words on Friday, Jumblatt showed that he sees Hezbullah as the stronger party in Lebanon. That is a direct result of the lack of support given to the March 14 coalition by the Bush administration (at least from mid-2008 when Hezbullah took over much of the country) and by the Obama administration. By their display of collective weakness, Bush and Obama have brought about a situation where Hezbullah is poised to take over the entire country of Lebanon, and bring about a far worse war than anything we have seen in the last 37 years. As Lee Smith would point out, Hezbullah has become the strong horse. To survive in this neighborhood, Israel may have to re-establish its deterrence.
In Lebanon, Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has taken a page out of his father, Hafez's playbook. He's playing Prime Minister Saad Hariri off against Hezbullah.
According to Lebanese observers familiar with the Syrian regime’s thinking, Assad never intended to end the crisis in Lebanon , he reportedly used the Saudi -Syrian dialogue as a cover for Syria’s comeback to Lebanon and for this reason the Saudi Syrian efforts failed and so did the Qatari-Turkish efforts .
The observers believe that Assad all along wanted the crisis in Lebanon to escalate and to lead to a Muslim Sunni- Shiite strife in order for him to justify sending his troops as the savior for Lebanon , just like his father did in 1976 when he occupied Lebanon until 2005 (following the assassination of former PM Rafik Hariri ) when Syrian troops had to withdraw under Lebanese and US pressure.
In an address to the Lebanese people Caretaker Prime Minsiter Saad Hariri said he decided to maintain his candidacy for premiership and accused the Iranian backed Hezbollah led opposition of trying to kick him out of political life .
He said he made one sacrifice after another but the opposition always wanted more and “unfortunately the Saudi Syrian efforts failed ”
MP Walid Jumblatt was told by Hariri prior to his meeting last Saturday with the Syrian president : “They want me to surrender and present concession after concession … on top of that they have a gun pointed to my head,” he was quoted as saying.
Hariri also reportedly told Jumblatt that the opposition cannot be counted on in respecting agreements, as proven through its violation of the Doha agreement when the opposition ministers resigned from Cabinet.
There is no reason for Hezbollah to celebrate according to the observers because :
- Under no circumstances will Syria allow Hezbollah to completely control Lebanon for security reasons. Complete control of Lebanon will spell disaster for Syrian security , because any war between Israel and Hezbollah will mean a war on Syria too
- Once Hezbollah is in complete control of Lebanon then Iran will be in full control of the country and Syria will lose its only card in negotiating a peace agreement with Israel to regain control of the Golan Heights .
- Just like his father(the late Hafez Assad) , Bashar will invade Lebanon and his target will be ….yes Hezbollah as his father targeted his former allies the Palestine Liberation Organization in 1976.
I know that some of you are still wondering why Hezbullah cares about the results of the Special Tribunal for Lebanon. Here's Lebanon expert Jonathan Spyer trying to explain.
With all the current maneuvering, two points need to be borne in mind.
First of all, this process is about Hizbullah’s legitimacy, not its physical power. What is at stake is the movement’s attempt to present itself as a patriotic, Arab movement engaged centrally in fighting Israel.
Should it be tainted with the murder of Hariri, the movement will instead come to be seen by millions across the Arab world as an alien, Shia force supported by non-Arab powers and engaging in activities that place it far outside the Arab political consensus.
Hizbullah dreads this outcome, and the possibility of it underlies its present obvious discomfort.
At the same time, what is not at stake is Hizbullah’s real-life dominance of Lebanon.
Whatever the outcome of the present crisis, the undeniable reality that the Iranian-sponsored Shia Islamist movement is the strongest force in the country will remain.
Hizbullah thus finds itself in the unfamiliar position of being without peer in terms of its physical strength, and yet unable to translate this reality at the present time into a situation to its liking politically.
The result is that the irresistible force of Saad Hariri’s (current) refusal to abandon the Tribunal tasked with finding his father’s killers is currently set against the immovable object of Hizbullah’s physical domination of the means of force in Lebanon.
What will be the outcome? As speaker of the Lebanese Parliament Nabih Berri put it in an interview with Asharq al-Awsat, Lebanon is currently entering “a tunnel whose beginning we know but whose end we don’t see.”
The weekend's events in Tunisia could only have increased Hezbullah's discomfort.
March 14 (pro-Western) MP Ziad al-Qadir and former Lebanese president and current Phalange Party leader Amin Gemayel both insist that only Saad Hariri can be the next Prime Minister of Lebanon.
Lebanese Prime Minister Saad Hariri has managed to tick off Bashar al-Assad. We all know what happened to Hariri's father when Assad got angry six years ago....
According to MTV sources Syrian president Bashar al Assad was very uptight and spoke with an angry tone when he talked With the French president Nicolas Sarkozy about PM Saad Hariri .
Assad reportedly accused Hariri of deceiving them ( him and Saudi king Abdullah ) and accused Hariri of damaging his ( Assad’s ) relationship with the Saudi monarch.
The sources likened the attacks by Assad against Saad Hariri, to the stormy meeting that the late former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri had with the Syrian president before his assassination.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com
