Israel Matzav

Tuesday, February 01, 2011

Great news: Egypt won't be like Iran. It'll be like Lebanon

Alan Dershowitz gives what's unfortunately a plausible scenario for how what's going on in Egypt may play out. The good news is that Egypt won't end up like Iran. The bad news is that it may end up like Lebanon.

The following scenario is possible, if not likely. Mubarak will leave. Someone like Mohamed ElBaradei, the Nobel Laureate who ran the International Atomic Energy Agency, will serve as an interim leader. He is supported by the Muslim Brotherhood, and, in turn, he has said nice things about the Brotherhood. On Sunday, he told Fareed Zakaria the following:
"You know, the Muslim Brotherhood has nothing to do with the Iranian model, has nothing to do with extremism, as we have seen it in Afghanistan and other places. The Muslim Brotherhood is a religiously conservative group. They are a minority in Egypt. They are not a majority of the Egyptian people, but they have a lot of credibility because all the other liberal parties have been smothered for 30 years.

They are in favor of a federalist state. They are in favor of a wording on the base of constitution that has red lines that every Egyptian has the same rights, same obligation, that the state in no way will be a state based on religion. And I have been reaching out to them. We need to include them. They are part of the Egyptian society, as much as the Marxist party here. I think this myth that has been perpetuated and sold by the regime has no - has no iota of reality."
This Pollyannaish description of the Muslim Brotherhood is misleading and incomplete at best and totally unrealistic at worst. The Muslim Brotherhood is a violent, radical group with roots in Nazism and an uncompromising commitment to end the cold peace with Israel and replace it with a hot war of destruction. Its very name undercuts ElBaradei claims that "every Egyptian has the same rights" and that "the state in no way will be based on religion." Christians, women, secularists and other dissenters will not have the same rights as Muslim men. Right now the Brotherhood "are a minority," but they are the largest and best organized minority, and they don't play by the rules of democracy, using assassination and threats of violence to coerce support.

ElBaradei is their perfect stalking horse—well respected, moderate and compliant. He will put together a government in which the Brotherhood begins as kingmaker and ends up as king.

This will not produce functional democracy. Nor will it preserve peace in the region. The first casualty may well be the peace process between Israel and the Palestinians. The Palestinian Authority will be emboldened by the prospect of a powerful military ally on Israel's border. The Israelis will be reluctant to surrender any more territory if they can no longer count on peace with Egypt (and perhaps with Jordan).

The second casualty will be religious freedom for Egyptians, particularly Christians, but also secularists.

Dershowitz left out one party that would be emboldened by that scenario: Hamas. That's already happening. On Monday night, Hamas terrorists shot two Grad rockets from the Gaza Strip into Ofakim and Netivot. Fortunately, no one was injured, but a car was damaged in Ofakim.

Labels: Egyptian regime change, Egyptian-Israeli peace treaty, Mohamed ElBaradei, Netivot, Ofakim

Sunday, November 21, 2010

Grad rocket hits Ofakim

A Grad rocket hit Ofakim in the early hours of Friday morning, damaging a cattle barn and injuring three cows (call PETA and tell them). Ofakim is about 20 kilometers from Gaza and therefore does not even have a 'code red' warning system like the ones you have heard so much about in places like Sderot and Ashkelon (Hat Tip: Daily Alert).

This was the first Grad rocket to be fired from the Gaza Strip since July, and the first to hit the Ofakim area since Operation Cast Lead.

...

At around 3:15 am, residents in the Ofakim area and the Eshkol, Sdot Negev and Merhavim Regional Council reported hearing an air raid siren followed by a blast. Residents of a moshav near Netivot told Ynet that "a loud explosion was heard in the entire area."

The security forces were working to locate the rocket, but were facing difficulties due to heavy fog.

"We woke up from the explosion and went out to look, but it was dark so we went back to sleep. In the morning we woke up and saw the damage," said Yahu Madmoni, a father of three who lives in the area, and whose parents own the dairy farm hit by the rocket.

"The rocket fell 150 meters from our house, near my parents' cattle-shed. Three cows were injured, and a water container and the cattle-shed's roof were damaged. Our Thai worker, who lives not far from the landing site, got up to milk the cows and found that some of them were injured."

According to Madmoni, the rocket alert system was not activated in the night. His wife Naomi added, "Some of the cows were hurt by shrapnel and a solar water-heater was broken, but what can we do? We'll continue to live here. We don't have a fortified room or anything. There were no casualties this time, but who knows what will happen next time."

Read the whole thing.

By the way, Hamas claims they don't want another war right now. They have an interesting way of showing it.

Labels: Grad rocket, Hamas, Ofakim