House Intelligence Committee Chairman Rogers: Iran less than a year away
Here's a fascinating interview with House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mi) in which he discusses, among other things, Iran's timeline to a nuclear weapon.
Rogers description of the meeting directly contradicts repeated Administration assertions that there is "no daylight" on the Iran issue with the Israeli government. Shortly after the meeting took place, Israeli press reports appeared suggesting that Netanyahu and Shapiro had engaged in an argument, but Shapiro soon dismissed those reports, calling them "silly" and saying, "The published account of that meeting did not reflect what actually occurred in the meeting. The conversations were entirely friendly and professional."
Rogers, speaking to WJR radio host Frank Beckmann, painted a very different picture. He said the meeting, originally scheduled to be a discussion of intelligence and technical issues between himself and the prime minister, spun out of control when Netanyahu began lambasting Shapiro over the Administration's Iran policy. When Beckmann asked Rogers to describe the tenor of the meeting, he said: "Very tense. Some very sharp... exchanges and it was very, very clear the Israelis had lost their patience with the (Obama) Administration." He went on, "There was no doubt. You could not walk out of that meeting and think that they had not lost their patience with this Administration."
Rogers said Israeli frustration grows from what they see -- and he sees -- as a refusal by the Obama Administration to outline an endgame: "(I)t was very clear the overarching policy has been frustrating mainly because I think it's not very clear. What we walked out of that meeting knowing is that the Administration was trying to defend itself." By the end, he said, there was a "sharp exchange between the Administration's representative there, our ambassador there, and Mr. Netanyahu, which was unusual to say the least, but I thought at the end of the day maybe productive."
Beckmann then asked: "Is it inaccurate to say it was a shouting match?" Rogers answered: "can say that there were elevated concerns on behalf of the Israelis." When asked if he had "ever seen that sort of thing before," Rogers answered: "No not that directly. We've had sharp exchanges with other heads of state and in intelligence services and other things, but nothing at that level that I've seen in all my time where people were clearly that agitated, clearly that worked up about a particular issue where there was a very sharp exchange."
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And Rogers had harsh words for the Administration, which he says has made it very clear to the Israelis what they shouldn't do, but hasn't delivered a message to the Iranians with the same clarity: "There's a lot of pieces in play on this. But I think again, their frustration is that the Administration hasn't made it very clea -- they've made it very clear to Israel in a public way that they shouldn't do it, but haven't made it very clear to Iran in a public way that there will be tougher action, which could include -- and I argue peace through strength, so you just need to let them understand that that's an option so we can deter them from their program. And right now the Israelis don't' believe that the Administration is serious when they say that all options are on the table, and more importantly neither do the Iranians. That's why the program is progressing."
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PART II: When asked by Beckmann at what he believes the Israelis willl say "enough is enough," Rogers answered: "Certainly when you walk out of that meeting you get the feeling that they are finally at wits' end, and that's what concerned me about the meeting."
He went on, "I will say that as a part of their decision point or data point when they go through the process of should we or shouldn't we, it was clear that our American elections have worked its way into one of those data points. I thought, well, maybe that hedges their response until maybe after the election. But what I got out of that, walking out of that, wa,s yeah they're considering it, but at this point they're very frustrated because they don't' know what happens after the election, and their window for impacting the program they believe is starting to close."
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The Israelis are upset because that dash question seems to be shortening and they already believe they have enough enrichment for more than one nuclear bomb. That's why their anxiety is high and the United States position isn't all that clear." Beckmann then asked Rogers how close the Israelis believe that dash period to be. Rogers: "The Israelis believe it's short. I mean, Netanyahu made it very clear he thought it was a matter of weeks. If they decide to do the dash it could be four weeks to eight weeks, which is a month or two months. Our intelligence analysts believe it would be a little longer than that. But the problem is, nobody really knows for sure. But we do know, and I think everyone agrees, including, you know, our European intelligence allies and other things that they are clearly marching down this road."
So now we can add Dan Shapiro to the list of Democratic liars.
By the way, you will recall that Goldberg wrote a long piece in the Atlantic a year and a half ago arguing that Israel would attack Iran. Hmmm.
Report: Netanyahu in shouting match with US ambassador Shapiro over Iran
Prime Minister Netanyahu had a shouting match with US Ambassador to Israel Dan Shapiro in front of House Intelligence Committee Chairman Mike Rogers (R-Mi) last week according to a number of reports. The subject was Iran.
A source that participated in the meeting said that a particularly angry and stressed Netanyahu began a tirade against the US president, attacking him for not doing enough on Iran. "Instead of pressuring Iran in an effective way, Obama and his people are pressuring us not to attack the nuclear facilities," the source quoted Netanyahu as saying.
Angered about continued US rhetoric that diplomacy needs more time to work, Netanyahu said flatly: "Time has run out," Yediot reported.
The American ambassador is said to have responded politely but firmly, telling Netanyahu that he was distorting Obama's position. Obama promised not to allow Iran to obtain nuclear weapons, he explained, and left all options on the table, including military options.
At that point, diplomatic sources told the paper, "sparks flew" in an escalating shouting match between Netanyahu and Shapiro as the stunned congressman watched.
The next round between Netanyahu and the Obama administration is slated to take place after Yom Kippur (the Day of Atonement) at the UN General Assembly meeting in New York. However, that meeting is likely to be more low-keyed or, as better known in military jargon, "low intensity." Netanyahu is likely to meet with President Obama, who will be on the last leg of his reelection campaign and would need an all-smiles photo with the Israeli premier.
Obama is likely to reiterate the things he has said before about his resolve to stop Iran. Netanyahu, for his part, will tell reporters that he has been able to get an American promise that will allow Israel to postpone the decision to launch an independent, unilateral strike in Iran.
This, however, is not the end of the story. For every smiley meeting before the elections comes the day after the US vote. Advised of the exchange between Netanyahu and Shapiro, one official opined that if on Nov. 6 Obama remains in the Oval Office, "Netanyahu will have to seek shelter against the revenge of the American President in his second term." [Emphasis mine. CiJ].
Meanwhile, on the sidelines and in the back rooms of this scuffle between Obama and Netanyahu, the prime minister has decided to extend the term of Israel's ambassador to the US Michael Oren by one year. The original plan to dispatch Ron Dermer, Netanyahu's closest political adviser, has been put on hold. This appointment will have to wait for the prime minister's optimistic scenario to materialize – to see the Republican nominee Mitt Romney becoming the next president. After the "brawl" between Netanyahu and Shapiro, it seems that the prime minister has another reason to hope for this scenario to come true.
The US Embassy would not comment.
But the majority of American Jewry will still pull the lever for Obama on November 6. I guess they think they have no need to worry.
Regardless, Israel has no choice. Unless it is clear that Romney is going to win the election (even if Romney wins, it's not likely to become clear that he will do so soon enough), Israel will have to attack Iran before the US elections. It may be our only chance to do so.
Israeli officials said that if they eventually decide a strike is necessary, they would keep the Americans in the dark to decrease the likelihood that the US would be held responsible for failing to stop Israel's potential attack. The US has been working with the Israelis for months to persuade them that an attack would be only a temporary setback to Iran's nuclear program.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Ehud Barak delivered the message to a series of top-level US visitors to the country, including the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, the White House national security adviser and the director of national intelligence, and top US lawmakers, all trying to close the trust gap between Israel and the US over how to deal with Iran's nuclear ambitions.
Netanyahu delivered the same message to all the Americans who have traveled to Israel for talks, the US official said.
The official spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive strategic negotiations.
The White House did not respond to requests for comment, and the Pentagon and Office of Director of National Intelligence declined to comment, as did the Israeli Embassy.
To get an idea of how far apart the US and Israel are, watch this interview with Representative Mike Rogers (R-Mi), who is the chairman of the House Intelligence Committee. The first 2:45 deals with Iran, but there's another minute that deals with Syria, and while it doesn't directly involve Israel, it's also quite interesting.
Let's go to the videotape.
The bottom line is that Israel no longer trusts the United States, and will not trust the United States so long as Obama is in power. And with good reason.
I am an Orthodox Jew - some would even call me 'ultra-Orthodox.' Born in Boston, I was a corporate and securities attorney in New York City for seven years before making aliya to Israel in 1991 (I don't look it but I really am that old :-). I have been happily married to the same woman for thirty-five years, and we have eight children (bli ayin hara) ranging in age from 13 to 33 years and nine grandchildren. Four of our children are married! Before I started blogging I was a heavy contributor on a number of email lists and ran an email list called the Matzav from 2000-2004. You can contact me at: IsraelMatzav at gmail dot com