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Wednesday, November 26, 2014

Michele Flournoy decides she doesn't want to be Defense Secretary either

Michele Flournoy has decided that she doesn't want to be US Secretary of Defense either (Hat Tip: Memeorandum).
But in a letter Tuesday to members of the CNAS board of directors, Flournoy said she would remain in her post at the think tank and asked Obama to take her out of consideration to be the next secretary of defense. Flournoy told the board members that family health considerations helped drive her decision and the fact that two of her children are leaving for college in the next two years.
"Last night I spoke with President Obama and removed myself from consideration due to family concerns," reads the letter. "After much agonizing, we decided that now was not the right time for me to reenter government. The good news is that you all are stuck with me for the indefinite future!"
The move means that only one of the three names rumored for the post remains under consideration: Ashton Carter, the former deputy secretary of defense. When Hagel was ousted Monday, speculation had immediately turned to Flournoy, Carter, and Democratic Sen. Jack Reed of Rhode Island, a former Army Ranger. But Reed took himself out of the running almost immediately after Hagel announced his resignation.
I wonder whether the history of Obama's Secretaries of Defense had any influence on Flournoy's decision. 
Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) on Monday suggested Hagel had vented “frustration” to him over his treatment by the White House.
The steady stream of stories in recent weeks that suggested Hagel was having a difficult time penetrating the president’s inner circle carried echoes of Robert Gates and Leon Panetta, two past Defense secretaries who went on to write tell-all books critical of the president’s handling of defense policy.
Former Democratic aide Brent Budowsky said Democrats across the Capitol saw Hagel’s ouster as the latest example of “unprecedented” drama created by “too tight and too controlling of an inner circle.”
He noted that not only had each of the president’s previous Defense secretaries voiced concern over his Syria policy, so had former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton.
“This is going to precipitate a very visible battle beginning today and going through the confirmation of his successor about what the policy should be, and highlight the long-term and chronic internal disagreement,” said Budowsky, who is a columnist for The Hill.
Other defense experts say Hagel was not particularly close with the president or members of his national security team. 
"He had no relationships that were already established within this administration," said a retired military officer with current policy experience in Washington, who wanted to speak on background. 
The retired officer noted that Hagel is also older than the president's closest advisers, such as Rice and chief of staff Denis McDonough. 
"The generational difference was a really difficult thing," he said.
Hmmm.

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Monday, November 24, 2014

Hagel takes the fall for Obama's failed Iran policy? Forced out as US Defense Secretary

Chuck Hagel has been forced out as US Secretary of Defense.

Let's go to the videotape.



The irony is that after we here in Israel were very much opposed to Hagel's nomination, he actually got along with Defense Minister Moshe Yaalon (unlike Obama and Kerry), and seemed to be following Hippocrates' rule of first doing no harm with respect to our country.

The New York Times says that Hagel was the fall guy for Obama's failures to handle ISIS (Islamic State) and Ebola
Administration officials said that Mr. Obama made the decision to remove Mr. Hagel, the sole Republican on his national security team, last Friday after a series of meetings between the two men over the past two weeks.
The officials characterized the decision as a recognition that the threat from the militant group Islamic State will require different skills from those that Mr. Hagel, who often struggled to articulate a clear viewpoint and was widely viewed as a passive defense secretary, was brought in to employ.
Mr. Hagel, a combat veteran who was skeptical about the Iraq war, came in to manage the Afghanistan combat withdrawal and the shrinking Pentagon budget in the era of budget sequestrations.
...
“The next couple of years will demand a different kind of focus,” one administration official said, speaking on the condition of anonymity. He insisted that Mr. Hagel was not fired, saying that the defense secretary initiated discussions about his future two weeks ago with the president, and that the two men mutually agreed that it was time for him to leave.
But Mr. Hagel’s aides had maintained in recent weeks that he expected to serve the full four years as defense secretary. His removal appears to be an effort by the White House to show that it is sensitive to critics who have pointed to stumbles in the government’s early response to several national security issues, including the Ebola crisis and the threat posed by the Islamic State.
 The bigger problem is that Hagel is a Republican.

Would it be too much to hope for Michele Flournoy?

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Friday, December 28, 2012

Iran: Let's make a deal?

The New York Times reports that Iran may be trying to make a deal over its nuclear capability.
Evidence from a variety of sources, including the International Atomic Energy Agency, suggests that as Iran produced more uranium enriched to near 20 percent purity, a process that takes it most of the way to bomb-grade fuel, it began diverting some into an oxide powder that could be used in a small research reactor in Tehran. That diversion is believed to have begun in August.
Iran had been complaining for years that the research reactor, which was supplied by the United States during the rule of Shah Mohammed Reza Pahlavi to produce isotopes for medical purposes, was running out of fuel, and that the West refused to sell it more. So it decided to make the fuel itself. Now, even though it has enough fuel to keep the reactor running for at least a decade, it may be making more, several sources indicate.
The statistics released in quarterly reports by the atomic energy agency show that if Iran had not diverted fuel to that project, it would have enough medium-enriched fuel for one bomb and would be on its way to enough for a second. Instead, as of the agency’s last report, in November, Iran had enriched 232 kilograms (about 511 pounds) of the fuel, nearly enough to produce a weapon. But more than 96 kilograms (almost 212 pounds) had been sent off for fabrication into fuel plates for the reactor. Once turned to that purpose, the fuel is very difficult to use in a bomb.
The Times goes on to quote intelligence analysts who believe that Iran is trying to signal willingness to reach a deal with the West, or at least to be seen as willing to reach such a deal.

JPost adds:
The report came as an Iranian official said Thursday that Tehran would let UN nuclear inspectors into a military base they suspect was used for atomic weapons-related work, if threats against the Islamic Republic are dropped.
The IAEA believes Iran conducted explosives tests with possible nuclear applications at Parchin, a sprawling military base southeast of Tehran, and has repeatedly asked to inspect it.
Western diplomats say Iran has carried out extensive work at Parchin over the past year to cleanse it of any evidence of illicit activities but IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said earlier this month a visit would still be "useful."
"If the trans-regional threats (against Iran) dissipate, then they will find it possible to visit Parchin," Deputy Foreign Minister Hassan Qashqavi was quoted by the Iranian Labor News Agency as saying on Wednesday. The comments were also published on Thursday by online magazine Iran Diplomacy.
Qashqavi was most likely referring to Israel's threat of military strikes against Iran and the possibility of further sanctions by the West.
Iran is playing games. It's seeking to get the sanctions removed without actually stopping the uranium production or allowing weapons inspectors in to report on a real-time basis. The only reason it's behaving this way is that it is feeling threatened, particularly by the prospect of the US joining with Israel in a strike.  For example, from the reports in the media, it seems that Michele Flournoy is a lot more likely to advise President Obama to strike Iran than would Leon Panetta or Chuck Hagel. Flournoy currently seems to be the front runner for the Secretary of Defense position. Additionally, the prospect of Binyamin Netanyahu being reelected with everyone knowing that he wants to attack Iran cannot be comforting for the mullahs.

But this is not a time to let down our guard.

What could go wrong?

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Thursday, December 27, 2012

Michele Flournoy for Defense?

A piece in Foreign Policy by Rosa Brooks touts Michele Flournoy for Secretary of Defense.
Michèle Flournoy would make a great secretary of defense. I worked for her for more than two years at the beginning of the Obama administration's first term, and seeing her in action convinced me of it.
Am I biased in her favor? You bet. I've worked with and for many people over the years, and I've had colleagues I wouldn't trust as secretary of the local dogcatchers' association. But I'd trust Flournoy with any job in the nation. And, for the record, I don't want another administration job. I already have a job that I like, and tenure is a beautiful thing. But as a citizen, I'd sure like to see Flournoy back at DoD.  
Here are 10 reasons she'd be a terrific choice for defense secretary:
Very little in that list has anything to do with policy. But this one was perhaps the most interesting. 
10. She's not lobbying for the job. Flournoy's got plenty of great alternatives: She can walk into any think tank job, any defense industry job, and most academic jobs as it is. She's already an enormous success, and odds are she'll be SecDef eventually. But right now, she has three kids at home and she knows just how tough it is to balance family life with an all-consuming job. If President Obama wants her as secretary of defense, he may have to work to convince her to take the job this time around. That's a good thing: The desperate make lousy public officials.
Want someone who will be a great secretary of defense? Find someone who's not sure she really wants the job.
That's one of the worries on the mind of Haviv Rettig Gur. 
Would she return to the Pentagon so soon after leaving in order to focus on her family [in February 2012]?
Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs Kurt Campbell, a cofounder of CNAS with Flournoy and a family friend, told Newsweek’s Eleanor Clift in late November that balancing work and family “is a real concern to her,” but Flournoy “believes deeply in public service and if the call comes she will serve.”
Supporters of Israel may view Flournoy more positively than Hagel.
Hagel’s critical views on Israel and reported homophobia have made him somewhat radioactive as a candidate, but Flournoy’s emergence has been welcomed by conservative and pro-Israel groups, among others.
A senior Republican Senate aide told Politico that Flournoy was well versed in Israel’s Iron Dome anti-missile system, which is partially funded by the US, as well as regional arms sales and the importance of Israel’s military edge over its neighbors.
On Iran, her views seemingly fall in line with the pentagon’s official position, that a military strike against Tehran’s nuclear facilities must be kept on the table, though the option is not an effective one.
“It is something that would buy us time, but it would not by itself solve the problem in any enduring way,” Flournoy told a Tel Aviv conference in May.

...

 
With the idea of a Hagel appointment being savaged by Republican senators, security hawks, gay advocacy groups, mainstream newspapers including the Washington Post, advocates for stronger sanctions on Iran and Cuba, and pro-Israel campaigners from both sides of the aisle, Obama would have to be unusually committed to Chuck Hagel’s nomination for it to go forward.
In case he is not – as the failure to announce the nomination last week alongside that of Senator John Kerry for secretary of state indicated – most observers agree that the president could do far worse than the competent, learned hand of Flournoy in the Pentagon.
 It sounds like Flournoy may be the best alternative available.

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Thursday, December 20, 2012

Hagel out?

Adam Kredo reports that Chuck Hagel will not be the next Secretary of Defense of the United States.
Sources on Capitol Hill told the Free Beacon that opposition to Hagel reaches all the way to the Embassy of Israel, which is said to have quietly expressed concern about the former senator.
“Our office has talked with the Israel embassy who says their policy is to support whatever the president wants in his cabinet and would not provide further comment,” one Senate aide told the Free Beacon. “With a little prodding, our contact at the embassy did allude to their concern for Hagel’s nomination.”
An Israeli embassy spokesman declined comment.
Hagel has drawn additional heat from insiders who claim he lacks the credentials needed to manage a department as large and essential as the Pentagon.
“Yes, Hagel has crazy positions on several key issues. Yes, Hagel has said things that are borderline anti-Semitism. Yes, Hagel wants to gut the Pentagon’s budget. But above all, he’s not a nice person and he’s bad to his staff,” said a senior Republican Senate aide who has close ties to former Hagel staffers.
“Hagel was known for turning over staff every few weeks—within a year’s time he could have an entirely new office because nobody wanted to work for him,” said the source. “You have to wonder how a man who couldn’t run a Senate office is going to be able to run an entire bureaucracy.”
Others familiar with Hagel’s 12 year tenure in the Senate said he routinely intimidated staff and experienced frequent turnover.
“Chuck Hagel may have been collegial to his Senate colleagues but he was the Cornhusker wears Prada to his staff, some of whom describe their former boss as perhaps the most paranoid and abusive in the Senate, one who would rifle through staffers desks and berate them for imagined disloyalty,” said Michael Rubin, a former Pentagon adviser on Iran and Iraq. “He might get away with that when it comes to staffers in their 20s, but that sort of personality is going to go over like a ton of bricks at the Pentagon.”
Multiple sources corroborated this view of Hagel.
“As a manager, he was angry, accusatory, petulant,” said one source familiar with his work on Capitol Hill. “He couldn’t keep his staff.”
“I remember him accusing one of his staffers of being ‘f—ing stupid’ to his face,” recalled the source who added that Hagel typically surrounded himself with those “who basically hate Republicans.”
Sources expressed concern about such behavior should Hagel be nominated for the defense post. With competing military and civilian interests vying for supremacy, the department requires a skilled manager, sources said.
“The Pentagon requires strong civilian control,” a senior aide to former Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld told the Free Beacon. “It’s already swung back in favor of the military over the past five years. A new secretary of defense should push it back in its rightful place, but it’s doubtful Hagel would be that guy.”
“It’s not clear that [Hagel] has the standing, the managerial prowess, or the willingness to gore some oxen,” said the source.
One senior Bush administration official warned that Hagel is ill informed about many critical foreign policy matters.
“He’s not someone who’s shown a lot of expertise on these issues,” said the source, referencing a recent Washington Post editorial excoriating Hagel’s record. “That [op-ed] was extraordinary.”
“Only in Washington,” the official added, “can someone like [Hagel] be seen as a heavy weight. He’s not the sharpest knife in the drawer.”
Hagel is likely viewed positively by the administration mainly because he is a Republican who often criticizes his own party, the source said.
“He’ll dance to a tune played by the White House,” said the former official. “That I think is the real problem.”
Read the whole thing. Yes, there's much more. This guy was a disaster from the get-go.  His only qualification is that he's a RINO. I wonder if he paid his taxes.....

The next candidate?

Here's a speech she gave to the Institute of National Security Studies in May.

Let's go to the videotape.



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