An opportunity for regime change in Iran?
Here's an interesting item from a
BBC report on Wednesday.
0850
Iranian authorities have advised the one and a half
million people who live in Isfahan to leave the city if they can because
pollution has now reached emergency levels. The same thing happened in
the capital Tehran earlier this week. Kasra Naji works for the BBC's
Persian TV service in London.
Reader
David W writes:
Western "sources" should be hyping this, supplying their air quality
reports and otherwise dramatizing this story for all its worth to create
panic and a vote of non-confidence in Mullah's mad leadership.
Well, maybe. But this isn't a new issue. A quick Google of Isfahan (pictured above) pollution returned hundreds of results.
But Tehran
looks even worse (see the pictures at that link) and no one
seems upset by it. Here's a report from Monday in Tehran:
Tehran's emergency air pollution coordination committee held a meeting on Monday to assess the situation and take the measures necessary to reduce pollution.
The committee decided to close elementary schools and daycare centers on Tuesday and Wednesday due to heavy air pollution.
Later on the day, the choking smog was dissipated by the breeze.
Heavy smog on some days in autumn and winter, due to inversion and the geographical location of Tehran, which is surrounded by mountains, is not a new phenomenon. In fact, it has become a chronic problem over the past few years.
But officials do not address the issue until it reaches a critical
point, and even then only take a few emergency measures to temporarily
alleviate the problem.
How often are your kids' schools closed because of pollution? And yet, no one seems to get too excited about it in Iran. Maybe when that smog starts to carry radioactive particles, someone will wake up....
Labels: Iran, Isfahan, Tehran
Another 'accident' in Iran
I'm sure it's just a coincidence. There's been
a 'malfunction' that led to a fire and a power outage in Iran's Isfahan oil refinery, the country's second largest.
A malfunction at an Isfahan refinery caused a leakage of cooling water from its generators - the latest in a string of mysterious mishaps in Iran in the past few months. A power outage was created as a result and a state of emergency was declared at the refinery, the Iranian Mehr news agency reported.
According to the report, one person was injured and taken to hospital. Various eye-witnesses reported seeing flames and thick smoke covering the area. The report stated that workers burned off the excess oil and gas in pipes to prevent a blast in the site. Traffic to the site was blocked and all phone lines were disconnected to prevent an explosion.
The Isfahan refinery is the second largest in Iran. A local oil company official said that the situation was under control and that the malfunction would be repaired within several hours. He denied that a fire had broken out.
Coincidence. I'm sure this is all just a coincidence. Heh.
Labels: Iran, Isfahan, refined oil products
The Isfahan explosion was not in the uranium conversion plant
New satellite imagery shows that the November 28
explosion in Isfahan (Iran) did not take place at the
uranium conversion facility.
It is still unclear where the reported blast occurred in Esfahan and whether it occurred anywhere near the nuclear facility. ISIS has identified a facility near the Esfahan nuclear site that underwent a significant transformation recently. The facility is approximately 400 meters away from the edge of a perimeter fence that surrounds the Esfahan nuclear site (see figure 2). An August 27, 2011 satellite image shows that the facility consisted of a ramp leading underground with several buildings along the surface (see figure 3). In a December 5, 2011 satellite image, the buildings are gone, heavy equipment can be seen around the site and there is evidence of bulldozing activity (see figure 4). These buildings were present on the site for at least 15 years (see figure 5). It is unclear how and why the buildings are no longer present at the site. It is also unclear whether this transformation is related to the November 28th, 2011 blast reported to have been heard throughout Esfahan.
ISIS has learned that this underground facility was originally a salt mine dating back to at least the 1980s, and that it has more recently been used for storage. It is unclear what Iran stored in this underground facility. The Times article quoted a “military intelligence source” saying the blast “caused damage to the facilities in Isfahan, particularly to the elements we believe were involved in storage of raw materials.”
More
here.
Labels: Iranian nuclear threat, Isfahan
What we can learn from Isfahan
Caroline Glick views the bombing near Iran's Isfahan uranium facility this week as an attempt by the Green party to overthrow the government, and not as an attempt by outsiders to sabotage Iran's nuclear program. Still, there are some
valuable lessons in it for the outsiders.
THIS ESCALATION in the war of sabotage against the Iranian regime provides two important lessons for Western policy-makers assessing Western options for preventing Iran from acquiring nuclear weapons.
It tells us the popular Western belief that a US or Israeli or coalition strike on Iran’s nuclear installations would provoke the Iranian public to rally around the regime is utter nonsense. In the case of the Isfahan bombing, for instance, there are two possible scenarios for who is responsible.
First, it is possible, as Ledeen argues and Dyer infers, that the attack was the work of regime opponents acting on their own. Second, it is possible as Israeli officials quoted by the media have hinted that it was a collaborative effort between local regime opponents and foreign forces.
In either case, what is clear is that at least some Iranians are willing to target their country’s nuclear installations if doing so will harm the regime.
At the height of the 2009 Green Movement protests against the regime, US President Barack Obama justified his decision not to side with the anti-regime protesters by claiming that if the US were to support them, they would lose popular credibility. In his words, it would be counterproductive for the US “to be seen as meddling” in Iran’s domestic affairs, “given the history of US-Iranian relations.”
And yet, what we see is that no one is rallying around the regime. The attacks on Isfahan and Bidganeh, which the regime was quick to simultaneously deny and blame on foreign governments, did not cause the people to rally to the side of the mullahs. So, too, the repeated bombings of petroleum facilities are not fomenting an upsurge in public support for the regime. To the contrary; domestic disgruntlement with the regime continues to rise as the standard of living for the average Iranian plummets.
And this brings us to the “students” who raided the British Embassy on Tuesday. On Thursday the regime released from jail all the “students” arrested for raiding and torching the embassy and briefly holding British personnel hostage.
Their release is yet further proof that the embassy attackers were neither students nor angry at Britain. Rather, as British Foreign Minister William Hague and others have alleged, they were regime goons who belong to the same Basij force that massacred, tortured and raped the anti-regime protesters from the Green Movement in 2009.
According to the official Iranian press agencies, the “students” raided the British Embassy because they were furious that Britain announced it was cutting its ties with Iran’s Central Bank. If Obama were right, and Western anti-regime actions were counterproductive, then we could have expected real students, like the ones who called for the overthrow of the regime in 2009 to protest outside the British Embassy. But the fact that they stayed home while their attackers turned their truncheons on the British is clear proof that Obama simply didn’t know what he was talking about.
Read the whole thing.
Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Iranian nuclear threat, Isfahan, sabotage
Explosion outside Tehran two weeks ago an attempt to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khameni?
In an attempt to sort out Monday's explosion near an Iranian uranium facility in Isfahan, Missing Peace points out something that may be much bigger: The explosion two weeks ago at a missile base outside Tehran may have been
an attempt to assassinate Ayatollah Ali Khameni.
So what really happened in Isfahan?
Dr. Ali Reza Nourisadeh, an expert on Iran who writes for Al Sharq al-Awsat, told us on the phone from London that the explosion took place on air force base 8 near Isfahan. He said that 400 converted Chinese missiles were destroyed by the blast, as well as a rocket fuel depot.
He also reported that the explosion in Bidganeh two weeks ago, destroyed 180 long range missiles as well as warheads.
Daniel Ashrafi, an Iranian expat now living in Canada, told us that Ayatolla Khamenei was supposed to be on the air force base in Bidganeh, when the first explosion took place. His arrival was delayed, however.
Ashrafi also said that after the humiliating events in Isfahan and Bidganeh, the regime deliberately created the crisis at the British embassy in Tehran in order to divert the attention to an external enemy,
Read the whole thing.
Labels: Ayatollah Ali Khameni, explosions, Isfahan, sabotage
Times: Isfahan nuclear site seriously damaged by Monday's blast
It takes a while for the truth to come out of Iran, but the Times of London is reporting on Wednesday that the
uranium enrichment plant in Isfahan was seriously damaged by Monday's explosion.
However, a report in the Sunday Times on Wednesday alleged that the blast had not been a military accident, and that the city's nuclear facility was damaged.
The report quotes Israeli intelligence officials who based their conclusion on updated satellite images showing smoke billowing from the direction of the conversion plant.
According to the Israeli sources, there was "no doubt" that the blast had damaged the nuclear facility, and that the explosion was not an "accident."
"This caused damage to the facilities in Isfahan, particularly to the elements we believe were involved in storage of raw materials," one source told the Sunday Times.
It must be noted that the Times report was not confirmed by any other source.
The original story in the Times is
here. Since I refuse to pay 2 pounds per week to access their site, I cannot reach the original article.
UPDATE 6:54 PMThe full article from the Times is available in the Australian
here.
Labels: explosions, Iranian nuclear program, Isfahan, sabotage
Here's to many more
My friends have been very busy tonight. Unfortunately, my photoshopper isn't home yet as I'm writing this. Children....
Heh.
Labels: Iranian nuclear program, Isfahan
Iran's nuclear safety record
Heh.
Labels: Iranian nuclear program, Isfahan
Breaking: Explosion in Isfahan, home of Iranian uranium enrichment plant (UPDATED x2)
Reports are coming in regarding an
explosion in Isfahan, Iran, where Iran has a uranium enrichment plant.
A explosion rocked the western Iranian city of Isfahan on Monday, the semi-official Fars news agency reported, adding that the blast was heard in several parts of the city.
...
The Revolutionary Guard said the accidental explosion occurred while military personnel were transporting munitions.
It should be noted that Iran operates a uranium conversion plant near Isfahan, one with an important function in the chain of Iran's nuclear program.
Richard Silverstein will report - maybe correctly but without any basis - that the Mossad is behind the explosion in 5... 4... 3... 2... 1....
Heh.
UPDATE 8:00 PMIsrael Radio reports that the Mehr news agency in Iran is denying this story, claiming that it was a training exercise. The original source for the story is FARS, another Iranian news agency.
I have seen reports of broken windows in the area (emails - not linkable) and according to one expert with whom I am in contact, if in face the uranium enrichment plants has been hit, there is a risk of nuclear contamination.
UPDATE 9:19 PMHere are some more details about the
Iranian denials from YNet.
In a curious turn of events, shortly after the initial report was published, the item was removed from the news agency's website, which is affiliated with the country's Revolutionary Guard.
Hours later, conflicting reports began to surface, the deputy governor of Isfahan province telling Iran's Mehr news agency that there was no report of a major explosion in the province.
"So far no report of a major explosion has been heard from any government body in Isfahan," he was quoted as saying.
However, the news agency also quoted another Iranian media outlet as saying that a blast took place at a petrol station in a town near Isfahan.
Meanwhile, the head of Isfahan province judiciary told Isna news agency that an explosion-like sound was heard across the city.
"In the afternoon, there was a noise like an explosion, but we don't have any information from security forces on the source of the noise," Gholamreza Ansari was quoted as saying.
The uranium conversion plant is an integral part of Iran's nuclear program, where urania, also known as Yellowcake, is processed into uranium hexafluoride gas (UF6).
From there, the gas is transferred to Iran's nuclear facilities in Natanz and Qom.
I'd bet on the explosions having taken place.
Labels: Iranian nuclear threat, Isfahan, uranium enrichment
