Iran sanctions working great, economy grows faster than US economy
In Iran, those sanctions that are designed to stop the country's nuclear program are going just great according to the International Monetary Fund. The economy grew at a rate of 3.2% in 2010-11. That's a better rate than the United States....
The International Monetary Fund gave a rosy portrayal of Iran's economy in a report issued Wednesday, saying it grew by 3.2 % in 2011, contradicting its earlier assessment and surprising Iran analysts who contend that the economy is shrinking.
The new IMF report is based mainly on official Iranian data, independent economists said—rather than on a second set of economic statistics in Iran that is made by independent economists. The IMF's April regional report on the Middle East and Central Asia, which was based on the independent analyses, predicted a 0% growth rate for Iran.
The country's central bank, a government entity, hasn't issued an economic growth report since 2008, prompting criticism from Iranian lawmakers recently that the bank was hiding the data under the order of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad.
Iran had blasted the April report, calling it "politicized" and saying the IMF was acting under Western influence. After the criticism, the IMF sent a group of experts to Iran to review its report and "correct" it, Iran's deputy economy minister Mohamad Reza Farzin said in June after part of the new report was released.
The IMF wasn't available for comment. The fund didn't say how much of the new report was based on official statistics and how much it had obtained independently.
The new report surprised Iran analysts, who said these figures didn't reflect the dire reality of Iran's economy, weighed down by strict international sanctions, mismanagement and inefficiencies. Economists inside and outside of Iran, as well as European governments, have also questioned the accuracy of the IMF's economic data for Iran. One European official said, "We think they're overly optimistic."
"IMF's new report is a big puzzle," said Paris-based economist and Iran expert Fereydoun Khavand, saying it "relies on figures from the Islamic Republic which are even disputed inside the country."
The report said the country's economic growth has rebounded from a cyclical downturn in 2008-09, "spurred by a recovery in agriculture production, and higher oil prices." Even so, the gross domestic product growth of 3.2% in 2010-11 was slightly lower than the 3.5% recorded in 2009-10, according to the IMF.
By comparison, here's a chart showing US GDP growth from January 2009 to June 2011.
Someone please remind me again which country is under sanctions.
What could go wrong?
Labels: GDP, International Monetary Fund, Iran, Iran sanctions regime, United States
Israel turns in 6th straight growth quarter
Israel turned in its
sixth straight quarter of growth in the third quarter, with a preliminary estimate of 3.8%.
Israel's economy grew for a sixth straight quarter in the July-September period, but falling exports stemming from weak US and European economies slowed the rate and are expected to dampen growth into 2011.
Gross domestic product grew an annualized 3.8% in the third quarter, the Central Bureau of Statistics said in an initial estimate on Tuesday. A Reuters survey of nine analysts had forecast a 3.2% increase.
Growth slowed from a 4.5% pace in the second quarter but the economy has expanded at least 3.6% in every three-month period since the third quarter of 2009, as Israel rebound from a brief recession in the wake of the global financial crisis.
The Bank of Israel forecasts 4% growth in 2010, easing to 3.8% in 2011. The economy grew 0.8% to NIS 768 billion (about $210 billion) in 2009.
"The economy is very robust. We are seeing a rapid growth rate and other drivers are making up for the drop in exports, so the total economy is in pretty good shape," said HSBC economist Jonathan Katz. "Because of the soft global environment, growth may come down a notch to 3.4%."
Some analysts believe the data support another short-term interest rate increase later this month. Strong growth and high inflation expectations have already led to six, quarter-point rate increases to 2% since August 2009.
I have to tell you that with all the supposed growth, I still know an awful lot of unemployed and underemployed people here, and a lot of people working full time for ridiculously low salaries.
Labels: economy, GDP, inflation
Aliya is not a career move
David Bernstein is right: Aliya (immigration to Israel) is
not a career move.
We can go back an forth on how to measure standard of living all day, but here’s a rather simple metric, which is hardly surprising given the GDP numbers: I know many Israelis who’ve emigrated to the U.S., and a smaller number of Americans who’ve moved to Israel. If you ask members of the former group why they’ve moved here, they will almost always respond that “a higher standard of living” or something similar was at least a significant factor, as, often is getting away from mandatory military and reserve service, a not insignificant drag on quality of life. The Americans who’ve moved to Israel, by contrast, almost never cite standard of living as a factor, but rather as a sacrifice they decided to make to pursue their dream of living in Israel. This is true even of Modern Orthodox families with three or four kids who get free religious public school education for those kids in Israel, as opposed to paying three or four day school tuitions in the U.S.
When I made aliya in 1991, I went from being a 7th year associate at a prestigious Manhattan law firm to being an apprentice at a boutique Tel Aviv securities practice whose name partner took most of the money home for himself. I took a 91% paycut. Yes, you read correctly.
Today, Nefesh b'Nefesh ameliorates that kind of paycut by helping you out financially in the first year or two, but that doesn't change the fact that the standard of living here is much lower than it is in the States. Much lower. Bernstein was answering someone (Leftist
Glenn Greenwald) who thinks otherwise. Maybe Greenwald should come live here for a while and see for himself.
Labels: aliya, David Bernstein, GDP, Glenn Greenwald, Nefesh b'Nefesh
In Iran, those sanctions that are designed to stop the country's nuclear program are going just great according to the International Monetary Fund. The economy grew at a rate of 3.2% in 2010-11. That's a better rate than the United States.... 
