Israel Matzav

Sunday, August 28, 2011

"I will bless those who bless you and curse those who curse you"

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan may be about to find out just how true the verse cited in this post's title is. And Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin - pictured with Erdogan - may also suffer the consequences.

Writing in Asia Times, retired Indian diplomat M K Bhadrakumar makes a convincing case that Israel has succeeded in turning the tables on Turkey - partly by establishing relations with Greece and Cyprus, and partly through its longstanding relations with the Iraqi Kurds.

True to style, Israel is looking around the region for comfort and companionship with anyone who might also have an intractable problem with Turkey - it didn't have to look far across the Mediterranean.

The two-day visit by the Foreign Minister of Cyprus, Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, to Tel Aviv, which ended on Thursday, was much more than a routine call. The minister had just assumed charge in Nicosia and headed for Israel as soon as her customary first visit to Athens was out of the way.

Quite obviously, Nicosia and Athens (which has an ancient grudge to settle with Ankara) put their heads together and assessed that Israeli regional policies are on a remake. Cyprus and Greece have had indifferent ties with Israel, but a compelling commonality of interests is sailing into view. A realignment of regional powers is taking place in the eastern Mediterranean, the leitmotif being the "containment" of an increasingly assertive Turkey.

The backdrop is easy to understand. Cyprus contracted American oil company Noble Energy to prospect for gas in 350,000 hectares in the eastern Mediterranean, bordering Israel's economic zone where significant gas deposits have been discovered.

But Turkey butted in, saying the hydrocarbon resources also belonged to northern Cyprus (which has been under Turkish occupation since 1974) and Nicosia didn't have the right to exploit resources that belonged to Turkish Cypriots. Turkey threatened to intervene.

Regarding Kozakou-Marcoullis' mission to Tel Aviv, the Foreign Ministry in Nicosia said on Tuesday, "Particular emphasis will be placed in cooperation between Cyprus and Israel in energy issues, and the recent developments in the wider region." Nicosia factored in that the minister would receive a warm welcome in Tel Aviv, which she did from Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and President Shimon Peres.

The statement issued by Netanyahu's office virtually underscored that Israel has a convergence of interests with Cyprus with regard to Ankara's perceived belligerence. Netanyahu said Israel and Cyprus had "overlapping interests". The statement said Netanyahu discussed with Kozakou-Marcoullis "the possible expansion of energy cooperation given that both countries have been blessed with natural gas reserves in their maritime economic zones".

...

The Israelis are pinning their hopes on Cyprus turning out to be a prize catch, being a member of the European Union, which works by consensus and is shortly expected to evolve a common stance apropos the expected Palestinian move at the United Nations General Assembly session in New York in September, seeking recognition for their "state".

...

Meanwhile, Israeli commentators have also begun rattling Turkey's nerves, already somewhat frayed, over the furious return of Kurdish militancy. Israeli intelligence and businessmen have longstanding contacts with the Kurdish Peshmerga in northern Iraq.

Interestingly, Iran has highlighted lately that Israel could be stirring up the Kurdish pot for Turkey and, therefore, Tehran, Ankara and Damascus would have shared interests in countering the Kurdish separatism that threatened all three countries. Leading Israeli defense specialist David Eshel commented in August about the upsurge of Kurdish insurgency in Turkey's eastern provinces:
The entire Kurdish people could take advantage of the ongoing Arab Spring and prepare the ground for a long-anticipated Kurdistan, linking up with Iraq's ongoing autonomy, the Iranian Kurdish enclave and perhaps even the Syrian Kurdish minorities ... With the Arab world in total turmoil, lacking any orderly leadership, the Kurds could finally achieve their sacred goal for independence, after decades, if not centuries of desecration and oppression ... the ongoing "Arab Spring" could eventually shift into a "Kurdish Summer".
With the dilemma in Ankara growing steadily, the future of Turkey's Kurdish minority is inevitably shifting into national focus. The long unfulfilled quest of the Kurds for independent statehood is not emerging as a major barrier in ... Ankara's relations with the US ... Turkey cannot afford an independent Kurdistan; it would be losing some of its highly strategic and economic assets. In fact, without Kurdish eastern Turkey, the entire nation would break apart.

The most devastating part of Eshel's commentary is his analysis that with the acute ongoing confrontation between the civilian government of Erdogan and the Turkish military, the latter's professionalism and intelligence-gathering capabilities have suffered a severe setback and the Turkish General Staff realizes that any military action in the Kurdish regions would be a "high-risk operation".

Eshel anticipated with an ominous overtone that a criticality might be reached soon if Turkish Kurds merged with the seasoned Iraqi Peshmerga militia numbering more than 100,000 fighters. He warned, "Erdogan is facing his yet most difficult challenge." Given Israel's close links with the Kurdish Peshmerga going back decades, Israel could be signaling to Ankara at various levels that it has the means to hit back at Erdogan.

So where does Putin come into this? Look at the picture's caption. If Cyprus - which is an EU member state - has a huge supply of natural gas, will Europe buy from Cyprus or will it buy Russian gas shipped through a Turkish pipeline, which will undoubtedly be more expensive? So the Russians lose out here too.

God said: "I will bless those who bless you and curse those who curse you." Perhaps we will merit seeing this verse fulfilled in the very near future.

Labels: Cyprus, Erato Kozakou-Marcoullis, Greece, Kurdistan, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey, Vladimir Putin