Israel Matzav

US admits Iran will get over $20 billion from 'sanctions relief'

A lack of preparation by the P 5+1 group in Geneva last month has Iran laughing all the way to the bank.

Senior officials in the administration of President Barack Obama have conceded over the past few days in conversations with colleagues in Israel that the value of the economic sanctions relief to Iran could be much higher than originally thought in Washington, security sources in Israel told Haaretz.

In official statements by the United States immediately after the agreement limiting Iran’s nuclear program was signed in Geneva between Iran and the six powers at the end of November it was said that the economic relief Iran would receive in exchange for signing the agreement would be relatively low – $6 billion or $7 billion. Israeli assessments were much higher – about $20 billion at least.

The United States had originally intended to make do with unfreezing Iranian assets in the amount of $3 billion to $4 billion. But during negotiations in Geneva, the P5+1 countries backtracked from their opening position and approved much more significant relief in a wide variety of areas: commerce in gold, the Iranian petrochemical industry, the car industry and replacement parts for civilian aircraft. But the Americans said at the time that this would at most double the original amount.

However according to the Israeli version, the Americans now concede in their talks with Israel that the sanctions relief are worth much more. According to the security sources: “Economics is a matter of expectations. The Iranian stock exchange is already rising significantly and many countries are standing in line to renew economic ties with Iran based on what was already agreed in Geneva.” The sources mentioned China’s desire to renew contracts worth some $9 billion to develop the Iranian oil industry and the interest some German companies are showing for deals with Tehran. “In any case, it’s about 20 or 25 billion dollars. Even the Americans understand this,” the sources said.

I've been saying this all along....

One of the problems with the Obama administration that has never been addressed is a basic lack of competence. It starts with Obama himself, who was and is too inexperienced to be President, and it continues with appointments that didn't even consider whether the appointee was suitable for the position (Van Jones, Chas Freeman, Janet Napolitano, Wendy Sherman, and yes, John Kerry, all come to mind off the top of my head).

It's clear that Obama's negotiators didn't do their homework before showing up in Geneva. And they expect Israel to pay the price.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Ayatollah Ali Khameni, Barack Hussein Obama, Hassan Rohani, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian nuclear threat, John Kerry, P 5+1, Wendy Sherman

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 11:47 AM