Israel Matzav

P 5+1 fear Israel will strike Iran; Obama talked Israel out of it in '12

Zaki Shalom of the Institute for National Security Studies writes that the P 5+1 have become a little too cozy with Iran (Hat Tip: IMRA).

In response to the ongoing public criticism of the Geneva agreement, the P5+1 have expressed understanding of the skepticism in Israel and other Middle East states about Iran’s sincerity and its intention to honor its commitments under the agreement. They contend, however, that it is valuable as a partial interim agreement intended to create a better atmosphere for important discussions on a permanent settlement with Iran on the issue of its nuclear activity.

It is difficult, therefore, to understand the outbursts of joy and the affection shown toward the Iranians by the P5+1 leaders after the agreement was signed. It is hard to believe that the P5+1 representatives did not realize that this sends a message that the agreement has led to a dramatic change toward Iran. Evidenced by the conduct of the P5+1 states – even if this was not their intention – Iran is now presented as a country increasingly integrated into the family of nations and as an element that will help resolve the crisis, more than as the country responsible for the crisis in the first place. The strategic significance of this image is that Iran is increasingly distanced from its status as a radical, isolated state that under certain circumstances constitutes a legitimate object of military action.

Since the signing of the agreement, the P5+1 leaders, especially President Obama, have made numerous statements that challenge the very idea of a military option against Iran as a realistic option. Furthermore, in almost every speech, Obama has taken the trouble to criticize harshly, albeit implicitly, Prime Minister Netanyahu, who despite his denials has been portrayed as preaching the value of the military option.

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It thus appears that Prime Minister Netanyahu’s repeated statements that Israel does not consider itself bound by the agreement with Iran and his harsh criticism of the accord have raised concerns among the P5+1 states about a possible Israeli military strike against Iran during the next six months. Such an attack, they correctly fear, would cause the collapse of the agreement in which they invested considerable efforts.

Perhaps it is for this reason that the P5+1 leaders seem to be making intensivking e efforts to delegitimize the military option. At this stage their effort is presumably focused on preventing an Israeli military strike until the current agreement expires. President Obama has been the most explicit on this issue.

All of this is really nothing new. In an interview with Yedioth Aharonoth, Dr. Gary Samore, the recently retired White House Coordinator for Arms Control and Weapons of Mass Destruction, says that President Obama talked Israel out of striking Iran during the 2012 election campaign.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Campaign 2012, Iran sanctions regime, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:25 AM