Israeli expert: Effective action against Iranian nukes no longer possible
Prof. Uzi Rabi, director of the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies at Tel Aviv University, who will soon publish the book The Shi’ite Crescent: An Iranian Vision and Arab Fear, added that an Israeli military operation against Iran’s nuclear program was feasible several years ago, but that today, “the train has left the station.”
He added, however, that the Iranian regime is rational and calculated, and that Israel will need to start thinking about how to contain a nuclear Iran together with Arab states that are also threatened by the Islamic Republic.
In current diplomatic talks between Iran and the international community, “the two sides understand they have to reach a middle ground,” Rabi said. An agreement will likely involve Iran decreasing its uranium enrichment activities and a timetable for inspection of nuclear facilities, though it will not include complete Iranian transparency, he added.
“Some of the sites will be open for inspection. Everything will be partial. This is convenient for the Iranian and the American presidents,” Rabi stated.
Such an agreement will likely be supported by Russia – and Europe, despite some reservations, will give its blessing as well.
Iran will not provide any further concessions, Rabi stressed.
...
But a partial nuclear deal is a “certified recipe for creating a nuclear Iran in the intermediate future,” Rabi warned. Israel and other regional states will have to start thinking about not only preventing Iran from arming itself with nuclear weapons, but how to contain a nuclear Tehran as well.
Rabi expressed skepticism that a military attack at this late phase could effectively stop the Islamic Republic’s march to atomic bombs.
“A strike can put them back perhaps by a year or two. What do you do at the end of that time? Strike again?” he asked. Instead, Israel should enter a regional coalition of states threatened by Iran, he argued.Sorry, but I don't buy this. I don't see Iran as a rational actor. I don't see the Gulf Arab states allying with us - openly or otherwise - regardless of the circumstances (although they'll be happy to have us do their dirty work on our own). I think there is value in setting Iran back a year or two, especially if it's followed by harsh sanctions that could prevent Iran from rebuilding its nuclear capability.
Read the whole thing.
Labels: Iran sanctions regime, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:15 AM
1 Comments:
This is his personal expertise opinion of one who specializes in the political-strategically aspects of the conflict yet lakes some compulsory military-technologically meaning of possible attack. Israeli attack (or otherwise) on Iran's nuclear facilities would neutralize Iran's ability to return to its nuclear project for many years. Certainly after the attack changes are expected in the inner political infrastructure within Iran but also the Western countries will organize to prevent leakage of relevant essential gadgets into Iran. It will be harder for Iran to re-start the project; the Israelis won’t sit aside and Only watch…. . We must stop the Iranian nuclear program and the faster the better.
Post a Comment
<< Home