Rohani's Hudaybiyyah moment
In the mid-1990s, Yasser Arafat, who was then the leader of the Palestinian Authority, began giving speeches (and sermons) about the Middle East peace process, which was then progressing in earnest. There were doubts about Arafat's willingness to compromise with Israel, a nation he had long terrorized, but he appeared to be fully engaged in negotiations, and Israel's suspicious leaders appeared to have overcome many of their misgivings.
In these sermons and discussions, however, Arafat began making reference to the Treaty of Hudaybiyyah, which, Muslim tradition tells us, the Prophet Muhammad had signed with a rival tribe called the Quraysh out of tactical necessity. Two years later, by most accounts, a stronger Muhammad, citing a violation by the Quraysh as pretext, saw to it that the treaty was dissolved. He then defeated his enemy. Arafat appeared to be signaling to Muslim audiences that even if the Palestinians came to an agreement, they shouldn't fear, because an agreement with Israel wouldn't last forever.
Optimists -- including me -- dismissed Arafat's invocation of the treaty as an example of a frightened politician playing to his base. The pessimists -- those who said this reference, among others, proved that Arafat was already devising an exit strategy from a still-theoretical (and ultimately unrealized) peace treaty -- were right.
The lesson of this sad episode was to listen more carefully to what leaders actually say.So does this mean that Jeffrey and his fellow liberals have actually learned the lesson of Arafat? Of course not.
Rouhani, in the interview, was in the midst of a presidential campaign and getting pressured from his right. So it's possible that he reacted defensively in the heat of the moment. But consider this statement, which he wrote in 2011: "While we were talking to the Europeans in Tehran, we were installing equipment in Isfahan."
These are not the words of someone who wants to end Iran's nuclear program. Taken together, Rouhani's statements sound like those of a man who is proud of the program and believes he may have devised a way to carry it to completion: By speaking softly, smiling and spinning the centrifuges all the while.
It's obviously worth testing Rouhani's intentions through intensive diplomacy and negotiations, but it's vital to conduct this test while paying careful attention to what he's saying at home. Avoiding a Hudaybiyyah moment isn't impossible, unless we're not paying attention.That's funny. I was taught that two points make a line.... And no, it's not funny because millions of people's lives are at stake, and Goldberg is known to have the ear of the White House.
As Einstein said, stupidity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. Stupidity is negotiating with Iran over its nuclear program, and stupidity is negotiating with the 'Palestinians' over peace. We all know the results in advance.
What could go wrong?
Labels: Hassan Rohani, Iranian nuclear threat, Middle East peace process, P 5+1, two-state solution, Yasser Arafat
posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:43 AM
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