Iran may have weapons grade plutonium by next summer

The bad news is that US and European officials believe that Iran will be able to produce weapons grade plutonium by next summer. The good news is that the Arak reactor, where it will be produced, is easier to attack than the uranium enrichment facilities like Qom and Natanz.

In recent months, U.S. and European officials say, the Tehran regime has made significant advances on the construction of a heavy water reactor in the northwestern city of Arak. A reactor like the one under construction is capable of using the uranium fuel to produce 40 megawatts of power. Spent fuel from it contains plutonium—which, like enriched uranium, can serve as the raw material for an explosive device. India and Pakistan have built plutonium-based bombs, as has North Korea.

The Arak facility, when completed, will be capable of producing two nuclear bombs' worth of plutonium a year, said U.S. and U.N. officials.

Iran has notified the International Atomic Energy Agency, the U.N.'s nuclear watchdog, that it plans to make the reactor operational by the second half of 2014 and could begin testing it later this year.

The IAEA has been monitoring Arak since its construction began. But following Iran's latest timeline, the site's importance has vastly shot up for Washington and Brussels, said U.S. and European officials. "It really crept up on us," said an official based at the IAEA's Vienna headquarters.  

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Israel has twice destroyed reactors in neighboring Middle East countries before they could produce plutonium, believing they were part of covert nuclear-weapons programs. The Arak plant is viewed as a much easier facility for the Israeli military to strike than Iran's enrichment facilities in the cities of Natanz and Qom.

"There's no question that the reactor and its heavy water are more vulnerable targets than the enrichment plants," said Gary Samore, who served as President Barack Obama's top adviser on nuclear issues during his first term. "This could be another factor in Netanyahu's calculations in deciding how long to wait before launching military operations."

Any Israeli strike on the reactor complex, said current and former U.S. officials, would likely have to take place before Tehran introduces nuclear materials into the facility, because of the potential for a vast environmental disaster a strike could cause.

The Obama administration continues to pretend that nothing is happening in Iran, and that they will be able to 'engage' with the 'moderate' Rohani. That most certainly does not appear to be the case right now.