Israel Matzav

Showdown in Cairo

With 22 million people allegedly signing a petition calling on Egyptian President Mohammed Morsy to resign, the stage is set for a showdown in Cairo on Sunday.

Mass demonstrations across Egypt on Sunday may determine its future, two and half years after people power toppled a dictator they called Pharaoh and ushered in a democracy crippled by bitter divisions.

The protesters' goal again is to unseat a president, this time their first freely elected leader, the Islamist Mohamed Mursi. Liberal leaders say nearly half the voting population - 22 million people - have signed a petition calling for change.

But with the long dominant, U.S-funded army waiting in the wings, and world powers fearing violence may unhinge an already troubled Middle East, Mursi's Muslim Brotherhood and militant allies pledge to defend what they say is the legitimate order.

Several people have been killed, including an American student, and hundreds were wounded in days of street fighting.

As I've been reporting for months, it's the economy, stupid. Or is it?

An economic crisis deepened by unrest and political deadlock may spur many less partisan Egyptians to join the rallies, due to start in the afternoon in Cairo. But many, too, are weary of turmoil and are skeptical that the opposition's demand to reset the rules of the new democracy is better than soldiering on.

U.S. President Barack Obama called on Egyptians to focus on dialogue. His ambassador to Egypt has angered the opposition by suggesting protests are not helping the economy. 

Liberal leaders, fractious and defeated in a series of ballots last year, hope that by putting millions on the streets they can force Mursi to relent and hand over to a technocratic administration that can organize new elections. 

"We all feel we're walking on a dead-end road and that the country will collapse," said Mohamed ElBaradei, former U.N. official, Nobel laureate and liberal party leader. "All Egypt must go out tomorrow to say we want to return to the ballot box, and build the foundations of the house we will all live in."

The economy will not magically be fixed if the 'liberals' take over. But it might give the population more of a feeling of a stake in the country's future than it has now. The question is what will happen if Morsy gets the army to crack down.

Religious authorities have warned of "civil war". The army has said it will step in if violence gets out of control but insists it will respect the "will of the people".

Mursi, who on Saturday met the head of the military he appointed last year, interprets that to mean army support for election results. Opponents believe that the army may heed the popular will as expressed on the streets, as it did in early 2011 when the generals decided Mubarak's time was up.

That would depend on a massive turnout, which is uncertain. Islamists suspect that agents of the old order are intent on shedding blood to trigger a military intervention.

If there's violence on Sunday, as appears likely, the US is likely going to be blamed. That's partly because of the behavior of its ambassador, and partly because of this story from last April and other stories showing US backing for the Muslim Brotherhood. 

You can follow a liveblog of all the action in Cairo here.

Labels: Egypt, Egyptian democracy, Mohammed Morsy, Muslim Brotherhood

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 9:17 AM