Israel Matzav

Tell Kerry it's not about borders

Shavua tov, a good week to everyone.

US Secretary of State John FN Kerry doesn't get it, and until he does, he will not even be able to articulate the problem in this area, let alone work on solutions.

Kerry has adopted the 'Palestinian' narrative that it's all about borders and security. But Carlo Strenger points out that there's a much bigger problem, and that problem is existential.

[I]t's important to clearly state the main reasons why simply getting Israel and Palestine to the negotiating table is likely to lead to another resounding failure: 

The first is that no Israeli Prime Minister will be able to retreat to the 1967 lines in the foreseeable future without a dramatic change in Israel’s security situation. Israelis are too traumatized by the second intifada and the rocket attacks from Gaza that fell after Israel’s withdrawal. They want assurances that Israel’s population centers will not be subject to such rocket attacks in the future.

The second reason is that no such assurances can be made as long as Hamas is committed to the destruction of Israel.  Israel’s position is that as long as Hamas refuses to recognize Israel, no peace agreement with the Palestinians is worth the paper on which it's written.

The third is that Netanyahu and much of Israel’s right thinks that the world misinterprets the Middle Eastern conflict as being about Israel and Palestine, whereas it is really about the Arab world not accepting Israel’s existence. Hence no peace agreement with the Palestinians truly safeguards Israel’s long-term future.

Four: Most observers in the Western world underestimate the power of the Palestinian national ethos. Many Palestinians indeed do not see establishing a state in the 1967 borders as the end of conflict. The refugees’ right of return is deeply entrenched in the Palestinian ethos and no Palestinian leader will have the legitimacy to renounce their right of return. But without such renunciation, no Israeli Prime Minister can sign anything. Israelis are afraid that after retreating to the 1967 borders, Palestinians will begin a new process of demanding the right of return into pre-1967 Israel, and that the retreat will have done nothing to resolve the problem. This is why Netanyahu insists that Palestinians must recognize Israel as a Jewish state, i.e. that they renounce any rights to pre-1967 borders.

Five: Kerry may be underestimating the strength of those in Israel who oppose any Palestinian state west of the Jordan River. This is the official position of Naftali Bennett’s Habayit Hayehudi party and at least half of Likud MKs, all of whom openly reject the two-state solution.

But this is Obama's last term in office, and he really, really wants a solution.

What could go wrong?

Labels: borders and security, Israel's right to exist, John Kerry, two-state solution

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 8:48 PM