Israel Matzav

Likud voters: Romney 77%, Obama 5%

Here's one area in which President Obama has succeeded in doing almost exactly what he wanted. He said that he wanted to put 'distance' between the United States and Israel. He has succeeded in putting distance - and lots of it - between Barack Hussein Obama and the Israeli public. The overwhelming majority of Israelis (and the Likud numbers in the title are just the highlight as you will soon see) detest him.

Shmuel Rosner reports the results of a poll of how Israelis would vote in the US elections if they had the opportunity. Admittedly, the numbers aren't that different from 2008, when Israelis overwhelmingly favored John McCain (although more of them favored Obama four years ago than do now). But the Likud numbers are striking. And so are the numbers among religious Jewish Israelis. They are even more anti-Obama than the Likud voters.

So here's what Israelis in general, Jews and non-Jews, want: They want Romney. Or, more accurately, they don’t want Obama.

As you look at that chart, keep in mind that approximately 20% of Israel's population is 'Israeli Arabs' who are far more likely to favor Obama than Israeli Jews. That's the one typical breakdown that Rosner did not post, and I left a comment at his site asking for it. Here's some more.

And here’s my answer to the Likud question: Only 5% of Likud voters would like to see Obama reelected.

And one should note: Centrist and leftist Israelis - voters of Kadima, Labor, Meretz, and the Arab parties - have a slight preference for Obama. There are fewer such voters and 10 of these mandates are of Arab Israelis. Arab Israelis traditionally have preference that is the opposite of what the general Jewish populations wants – for example: in 2004 Arab Israelis supported John Kerry, while a majority of Israelis supported the reelection of Bush. Considering this, a 6% advantage for Obama among them is hardly impressive.

No, it's not. And that dovetails in with the comment I made about the overall chart.

I would also infer from those results that many of the Likudniks are more upset about the way Obama has treated Netanyahu personally than they are about Obama's treatment of the country. That's the only reason I can discern to explain why Likud is even more anti-Obama than 'right of Likud.'

Okay, one more:

Israeli preferences by religious intensity: Three percent for Obama among religious Israelis, both modern and ultra-Orthodox. As you can see, the more religious the group, the wider the gap in favor of Romney.

Well, yes. But I would guess that's true in the US as well unless your religious fervor relates to Islam.

What you cannot infer from the overall numbers in this post is how Israelis who actually have the right to vote in the US election will vote. That number is more likely to be closer to the "Dati/Haredi" numbers in the chart. The overwhelming majority of US citizens living in Israel are religious Jews.

Read the whole thing. I'll let you know whether Rosner responds to my question about Israeli Jews v. Non-Jews.

Labels: Barack Hussein Obama, Campaign 2012, Israelis voting in US elections, Mitt Romney

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 10:33 AM