Israel Matzav: If anything, an Israeli attack on Iran is looking more likely

Wednesday, August 08, 2012

If anything, an Israeli attack on Iran is looking more likely

Two articles this week citing senior Israeli government officials (by name) make it look much more likely that an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear weapons capability is in the offing. This is from Israel's ambassador to the United Nations, Michael Oren, in Tuesday's Wall Street Journal.

Israel believes that Iran is far from forfeiting its nuclear ambitions. Our conviction is based on Iran's record of subterfuge and terror together with its genocidal rhetoric. It also reflects the inability of the permanent members of the U.N. Security Council and Germany (the "P5+1") to negotiate a compromise with Iran.

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Iran now has amassed roughly 225 pounds of 20% uranium and 11,000 pounds of 3.5%, sufficient for almost five nuclear bombs. Rather than stand by its initial demands, however, the P5+1 is now seeking merely the cessation of Iran's 20% enrichment, the removal of its 20% stockpile, and the closure of the facility at Qom. Arguably, this would be the first stage in the phasing out of Iran's nuclear program. But Iran has rejected even this preliminary gesture.

Iran will continue to drag out the negotiations while installing more centrifuges. These, according to the IAEA, are spinning even faster. The sanctions, which have dealt a blow to Iran's economy, have not affected the nuclear program. Meanwhile, more of Iran's expanding stockpile will be hidden in fortified bunkers beyond Israel's reach.

No country has a greater stake than Israel in using negotiations and economic pressure to dissuade Iran from developing nuclear weapons. We appreciate the determination of President Obama and the U.S. Congress to advance the sanctions and their pledge to keep all options on the table.

At the same time, the president has affirmed Israel's right "to defend itself, by itself, against any threat," and "to make its own decision about what is required to meet its security needs." Historically, Israel has exercised that right only after exhausting all reasonable diplomatic means. But as the repeated attempts to negotiate with Iran have demonstrated, neither diplomacy nor sanctions has removed the threat.

A combination of truly crippling sanctions and a credible military threat—a threat that the ayatollahs still do not believe today—may yet convince Iran to relinquish its nuclear dreams. But time is dwindling and, with each passing day, the lives of eight million Israelis grow increasingly imperiled. The window that opened 20 years ago is now almost shut.

And then there's this piece in Tuesday's JPost quoting Prime Minister Netanyahu.

Netanyahu, in a meeting with visiting Australian Foreign Minister Bob Carr, spelled out five things that would likely happen, were Iran allowed to go nuclear: There will be nuclear proliferation in the Middle East as various other actors will then want to have a bomb; Iran will have a firmer hand on the “choke point of the world’s oil supply,” namely the Strait of Hormuz; there will be a magnification of global terrorism because the terrorists under Iran’s sway will believe that they have immunity; and Israel’s cities will be rocketed even more because those firing the rockets will feel that they enjoy a nuclear umbrella.

That the Iranians might actually use the bomb is a reality that cannot be denied, Netanyahu said.

“This is a regime that has broken every rule in the book,” he added. “They very likely could use weapons of mass death.”

Netanyahu said there was an illusion among many in the world that if Iran acquired nuclear weapons, it would behave responsibly like the world’s other nuclear states.

The prime minister, during the discussion dominated by the Iranian issue, said Iran is governed by a “fanatical regime” that sees itself on a sacred mission of global Islamic domination, and destroying Israel was just one step toward its larger vision.

Everyone talks about the cost of stopping Iran, “but they shouldn’t ignore the cost of not stopping Iran,” he said.

It should be clear to everyone that Israel's patience with negotiations to stop Iran is running out. As Iran approaches the critical point of being able to create a nuclear bomb, Israel appears more and more likely to act. Note that neither Netanyahu nor Oren is threatening. They're simply stating reality.

What could go wrong?

Labels: Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran