Israel Matzav

Defense Ministry: 200 fatalities in war with Iran, 300 if Syria joins

Israel's Defense ministry is predicting 200 fatalities in a war with Iran, 300 if Syria joins.

Defense Ministry experts estimate that in a war with Iran and Hezbollah, some 200 Israeli civilians will die. If Syria joins the war as well, the number of fatalities could rise to 300.

A year ago Defense Minister Ehud Barak said in an interview with Army Radio that in a war with Iran "far fewer than 500 [Israeli civilians] would die." Barak downplayed the threat and said predictions of thousands or tens of thousands of dead civilians were "hysterical" and groundless.

The forecasts, recently presented to IDF officers and government leaders, were made by the defense establishment's research operations experts. They are based on the number of missiles and rockets the enemy has, data accumulated in the wake of previous wars, and preparedness in the Israeli home front.

The predictions do not claim to be precise but to provide a general picture, which would be affected by the actual developments.

Western research institutes have published studies saying Iran has several hundred long-range Shahab missiles of various models capable of hitting targets in Israel.

The assumption here is that even if Israel attacks the Iranian nuclear facilities and Tehran strikes back, it will not use its entire missile reservoir. Some of the missiles will fail to launch or will be hit on the ground by the Israeli Air Force. Others will miss and fall in open areas.

However, a few dozen missiles will presumably hit population concentrations, most likely in the Dan region.

Read the whole thing. The estimates actually sound reasonable, if on the optimistic side. And I'm sure they're much better than the casualty estimates if God forbid there is a nuclear war.

Labels: Hezbullah, Iranian nuclear threat, Israeli attack on Iran, Syria

posted by Carl in Jerusalem @ 2:25 PM